Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

Subject them to Ofsted would also result in many closing instead of the farcical sherry round the piano inspections that they have

I wouldn’t view OFSTED as any guarantor of an education, I would value for children!

A private school near me are closing the girls site and combining with the boys, on the boys site. Very telling about numbers on the roll.

I’ve seen a few schools combine, particularly single sex co ed prep

Some of this will surely be falling rolls in general though and the fact young families have less disposable income.

They are subject to Ofsted and have been for years. 🙄

I didn’t think the school my kids go to would be massively affected but since September the numbers have been steadily dropping with some surprise withdrawals right at the end of this last term too. Now im starting to wonder how long the school will be viable for. I can certainly believe many other schools will be in a similar position, but I suppose this was the aim of the VAT introduction, rather than raising money.

No they are not. Or most are not
they have the independent school inspectorate- or a bunch of your mates come round and if anything is wrong it isn’t published

Thanks for your thread derail.

I don’t know much about ISI inspections but I do know of a number of schools that have failed or had bad ISI reports. No doubt they served sherry of the wrong vintage and that was the only reason eg safeguarding errors were identified by the ISI.

Yes, that will definitely be it.

But if you think that the Ofsted regime is rigorous and/or that it holds state schools to account and to high standards then you are very much mistaken.

Why is it a thread derail?
You mean the thread didn't go the way that you intended ?

Dusting off my PhD in the bleeding obvious.

There will always almost certainly be some sort of contingency plan in case of a collapse of a large number of private schools.

BUT private schools are always packing up, AND in many areas of the Country there are very few private schools.

Also of course and in particular in the case of boarding schools they take their pupils from a very wide area.

Also worth pointing out that they will now be able to recover the VAT they pay out making the fee hikes closer to 15% AND they have had inflation beating fee rises for many years.

Clearly it may be the last straw for some struggling schools but not for many.

More than half are and have been for years. Given that there are many state schools that struggle to get a good ofstead report, why hold it up as a beacon for excellence? Do you work in state schools? Or an independent school? From your comments, you clearly know little about the vast majority of small independent schools that offer an education for all sorts of children. Not only that, but parents are still paying taxes to state education and not up placements. Shall we next expect that the government remove charitable status for things like swimming pools? Or charities that pay their CEOs huge salaries and are run just like private businesses? Or raise taxes on private healthcare so people can't afford that when they need it?

@JollyHollyMe I've been SLT in many state schools and privates schools and can assure you both are equally gruelling and thorough inspections. Do you have a basis for your theory that ISI is easier? If you have data or stats I'd be interested in reading the info. Many thanks

My heart bleeds.

Will be hard on kids. Its their school. Their stability. Their friends.

Will be hard on staff. Its their job. Will be awful.

For society? Will be a good thing. Over time and if it happens. For the mega £££ schools, parents won't even blink at the rise. At the marginal schools, yep I except some will close.

And there is no such thing as a hard up family with kids at private school. To send a child, there needs to be a substantial income. Yes, it might mean you drive an old car and holiday in a tent in Norfolk. You can afford private school fees. You are not hard up.

To call a private school a charity fails to understand what charity actually is.

School fees have been gone up and up before the VAT, ours are up 12% this year but we’re up 6% last year and bus has gone up close to 10%. The gap between spending at private vs state is higher than it’s ever been. If schools fold it’s not just about vat, it’s also about them all trying to position at the expensive end of the sector and also the economy more generally making the richest 1% much richer while the bottom 50%+ have seen their wealth decline.

Couldn't give a stuff. What I do care about is my DCs primary school closing because rich people have knocked the stuffing out of the area and changed the demographics, eg squeezing out poorer people leading to falling rolls and then sending their own kids to private schools. And I care about the contraction of half the UK's universities. Private schools...?? Bring it on.

Surely, it's the smaller, less viable ones that will close.

A private school near us is expanding, because of the influx of new students.
This definitely isn't one size fits all.

The article suggests that it’s the smaller and the less expensive schools that are giving greatest grounds for concern,

And that though the macro analysis shows there are more places than pupils overall, that doesn’t mean that there are vacancies in the right places in the right year groups

Equally the article doesn’t mention the knock on effect of potential job losses from the private sector.
Overall it’s very sad that they’ve approached the need to improve state schools in this manor.

It makes sense that the smaller, less expensive private schools will close. They are the ones catering to the people who are struggling to pay school fees and where the increases in pay, NI and pension contributions will have squeezed the margins the most. Eton (probably catering to a huge amount of international students) will be fine.

and in some areas there will be a massive squeeze to fit in all the pupils from independent schools - especially ones where their school closed and there are no other good independent schools nearby.

I do feel sorry for the people who believe that this will make state schools better though. The money is spent several times over, unemployment is up, GDP is flat / negative and the NHS is a black hole. And any parents moving their children over will pay for tutors in multiple topics after school to give their own children an edge, not trying to make their state school better for the weakest children.

There will always almost certainly be some sort of contingency plan in case of a collapse of a large number of private schools.

You've not followed politics much over the last few years, have you? Of course there is no plan. A plan may well not be needed for this, but there is no long-term plan for anything.

50% of the privates schools within a 10 mile radius of me have closed in the past decade.

More closing doesn't surprise me. It's been happening for a long time to the smaller and less well known ones.

My friend was made redundant from her school when numbers dropped because of Brexit.
They also lost a number of students as foreign parents got sick of travelling north and moved children nearer to London and where their flights arrive.
VAT is not the only reason. Schools are already struggling, if they were doing well it wouldn’t have that much of an impact. Birth rates are dropping so it’s inevitable some will close or reduce.
Schools have always closed, there were 2 near me when I was a teenager which aren’t there now, but there is a new 1. One school has been struggling and threatening to close for decades and it’s still there.
I live in an area where there are school spaces, but these are not the kinds of schools PS will send their children to, so I imagine they will find the money and the schools will carry one. One of them has diversified and is making a lot of money not from education but using facilities they have.

I have a child in Year 6. From the parents I know well, 21% say they will now not move into Yr 7 in Sept 2025. It remains to be seen what the actual number will be of course.
Then there are the parents I don’t know so well and the children that would have come from State Primary that won’t come.
This is a high-performing and popular school where kids join in Yr 6 normally to avoid the entrance exam. No-one joined in Yr 6 this Sept.

I hope everyone rejoicing in the demise of these schools will be equally enthusiastic when their kids are in classes of 40. There is no limit on secondary class sizes after all, so pack them in! I’m sure teachers will be delighted at the prospect too.

Why do you think it will be a good thing for society?