Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

“We have paid next term's fees. And the school made a point that there is a massive backlog of private schools receiving their VAT registration numbers”

Complete shambles! They have had since July to sort this out and it has been years in the planning as we are always told. In addition, Rachel Reeves has 14 days to respond to the juidicial review filed 20 December. The rules are clear as to when delays are allowed and when not. These muppets haven’t planned ZILCH!

Private schools employ a lot more people than teaching staff. State schools in our area certainly don’t have many vacancies for grounds people, plumbers, chefs, nurses, laundry staff, security etc.

The economy isn't tanking, its continuing its awful no or little growth trajectory of the last 16years or so.

Growth in the last 2 quarters of 2023, was negative and we were in a "technical" rescission.

Were you so enraged about that??

The UK has a falling birthrate, so its hardly surprising schools are struggling for numbers but the numbers in private education are 556k as of 2024 up from 554k in 2023.

But the Tory media will always seek an angle to attack Labour on.

If HMRC isn’t staffed properly and ready, don’t expect state schools and councils to be ready either!

It’s a total shambles. Supporters of the scheme have been saying that there absolutely wouldn’t be a problem in getting schools VAT registered in time, and yet here we are.

They’re not ready. My MP couldn’t answer when I asked where my children would be educated in the event we could no longer afford private fees. There are no spaces for those moving to the state sector in certain school years.

Indeed. And in our area 3 local primaries were told a couple of months ago that they would need to close due to falling numbers..... at pretty much the same time VAT was confirmed and there is expected to be a knock on affect of primary school pupils who would have started at one of the 2 privates now not doing so. 2 of the 3 schools are in a single catchment area, and the third which is better is oversubscribed year on year. Slow hand clap to the LA for such a balls up.

Maybe your kids caring excellent school will reduce fees ?

You know the VAT does not actually go to the school right? It's not a 20% windfall for the school.

Yup. And this thread is a case in point. Huge amount of outrage, spurious arguments and the odd bit of honesty from those directly affected. Plus an awful lot of people supportive of the measure. Private school is very divisive. In so many ways.

Our education system really needs an overhaul. It works for some, but often not for those at the top end end academically or those with SEN. Changes for that should go along side these changes for private. But they're not.

And I agree that for the kids affected its going to be awful. It's not a black and white argument.

Labour don’t care /their kids have never been to inadequate state schools. They have always done a Diane Abbot or Tony Blair.

Well, Diane Abbott did a Diane Abbott by paying for private education. Over 20 years ago, and the Tories are still wanging on about it as proof that "all" Labour MPs are hypocrites. Is that the best you've got? By the way, the entire Cabinet is state-educated now.

“By the way, the entire Cabinet is state-educated now.“ So? Still too many went to Oxford! And they are not doing a good job, far from it.

Yes, and the caring utility companies can reduce the bills, the caring private school staff can take salary cuts, and their mortgage providers can cut their monthly payments, and the supermarkets can cut the cost of food etc for them too?

You do realise that thousands of people work for these private schools (catering, estate, admin staff) and many will lose their jobs to fund such cuts (which my kids’ old school have actually tried to do to reduce the uplift in the fees in real terms for parents) or they will just lose their jobs altogether when schools close? Most left the state sector years ago because the salaries weren’t enough - they’ll go overseas or leave the profession entirely now - rather that add to the mythical 6000 new teachers labour have promised.

Also, remember that birth rates are falling. Regardless of how they are educated, the pool of children who need educating is simply getting smaller.

Our school has written to all parents and said that they will do their best to help existing pupils through bursary provision, where fees have become unaffordable. However, bursary provision is not a bottomless pot. Any extra bursary provision needed for existing pupils means that less provision will be available for new starters.

You are correct though. Our school is both caring and excellent.

You do realise why the Tories went down to their worst defeat ever don't you?

It wasn't because they ran the economy so brilliantly.

A few have commented that children with SEN shouldn’t have to pay the VAT but how would this be policed? EHCPs are very hard to get and are for high levels of SEN. Lower levels are not at the moment rigorously monitored.

So a child with mild dyslexia and generalised anxiety might be at a private school after bullying in state but wouldn’t be sufficiently SEN to qualify.

Or the child who is an odd sock but doesn’t have a formal ASD diagnosis, with very long waiting lists (most on here frown on private ones as well) preventing one from happening.

Lots of smaller private schools have high numbers of these types of children.

But that doesn’t help the students in year 9 who have to find a new school place when their school closes. Some councils have already said they are full and have no spaces.

By the way, the entire Cabinet is state-educated now.

Quite the argument for private education.

By the way, the entire Cabinet is state-educated now.

That’s not strictly true. Starmer attended a school which became private when he attended, so he has benefitted from a private education. David Lammy attended a boarding school (albeit a state boarding school), but it was hardly an average comprehensive.

What's Oxford got to do with it? Why should people with academic ability not apply to the best universities in the country, which charge the same fees as every other uni? If they had all gone to Scumbag College, the Tory press would be slagging them off for their lack of education.

(This reverse snobbery is very tedious. Anyone who earns more than average and votes Labour is a hypocrite/champagne socialist. Anyone who earns less than average and votes Labour is just doing the politics of envy/hoping for a handout. It's almost as if gratuitous personal insults are easier than criticising actual policies.)

Should 15 year old Starmer have demanded to change school when it became private and he got a scholarship?

Should the state not run boarding schools? Or should their alumni not be allowed to become MPs?

Do you not have a better argument than edge cases of a couple of not-very-privileged people's childhoods?

The Labour performance in the election was hardly a ringing endorsement of their policies. Their share of the vote was the lowest won by a post-war single party government. They got a lower share of the vote than Corbyn in 2017.

“You do realise why the Tories went down to their worst defeat ever don't you?
It wasn't because they ran the economy so brilliantly.”

The Tories had terrible policies too like Brexit and Rwanda. Brexit was the biggest economic growth killer of all times. But Sunak himself was better at the economy than Reeves, way superior. We aren’t all partisan you know!

Maybe your caring school with its massive grounds can make a few teachers redundant to go and fill the gaps in the state school, and your class sizes can become bigger because if they current teachers are so amazing maybe they can go with larger glass sizes. Remember research shows as no correlation between class size and learning.