Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

I think this is very regionalised - are you in London?
Every Primary, in our Midlands City is close to capacity here! They have even built 3 new ones to meet local need where there have been larger housing developments. The Council website shows 0-7 places free across each Primary year group for the whole city of 300,000+ so not much room for manoeuvre!

There’s always a lot of movement between state and private in cheaper, smaller private schools. There’s one near me (fees £8k a year, no fancy facilities, tiny number on roll). I think only a very small number of children complete their entire primary schooling there, and a huge number move to state for secondary as parents would be looking at a huge fee hike then. I don’t know how this school is still going and I would not be shocked if it closed or turned into nursery only.

I don't have access to the article, but a friend who does tells me that it reports that just 3,000 children will drop out of private education this year as a result of this measure.

If that's true, it means that about 600,000 will continue to pay average fees of £15,000 per year, for a total of £9 billion. 20% VAT on top of that is £1.8 billion. That's £600,000 per child that drops out. It won't fix the national debt, but it seems like a nice little earner for the Treasury.

Also, if more parents do take their children out, they will probably spend the money saved on consumer goods and services - the new cars, holidays, etc, that parents of children in private education often report sacrificing - which will also attract VAT.

So whatever the social/moral/ethical/jealousy/loony-lefty aspects, claims from some quarters that this "won't raise any money" are probably misplaced.

They don’t even need qualified teachers!

Schools haven’t raised fees just for the fun of it.

The cost of the TPS (teachers pension) has gone up considerably to the point where many private schools have had to withdraw but still provide one of an almost comparable value. This is a big drain on finances. When the increase came in a couple of years ago it added £1 million to my school’s wage bill.

Most private schools are housed in old buildings. The gas and electric bills are enormous. Our bills have certainly doubled over the last few years.

The cost of running a school is huge. It’s becoming ever more expensive year on year and that’s where the fee rises come from. A lot of schools just about break even and survive because of fundraising or endowments. This is why the VAT increase is going to be so disastrous for so many smaller schools - a friend in another independent was told by their bursar that two children leaving would tip the scales for them in terms of being able to stay open.

If schools could charge less to keep their doors open, of course they would.

There is so much ignorance out there about private schools. People think it’s just the likes of Eton but the majority of independent schools are small, local outfits catering for middle class families that just about keep their heads above water from year to year. It’s these schools that will close and leave local state schools to take in the extra students, many of whom will have complex SEN needs that the local authority will now have to fund. The big boys - Eton, Harrow, Winchester, Westminster, Marlborough, Stowe, Rugby, Ampleforth, Tonbridge, etc - which is where the super rich send their kids and where all the MPs will have come from - won’t be touched by the VAT rise at all. Their clientele can afford the rise and they have sufficient endowments to ride the current financial storm out safely. That’s the irony of this whole policy. The elitism that Labour is claiming this policy will get rid of in the education system is a load of bollocks. It’ll just make the gap even worse. Private education will simply become even more exclusive and rarefied while state schools struggle to cope with bigger class sizes, increased SEN needs and not enough teachers.

What pisses me off is that this pointless policy has become THE education policy. What else do Labour have to offer when it comes to sorting out the dire state of education in this country? Absolutely nothing. So what will happen when this promised windfall of VAT money doesn’t suddenly result in more teachers and better resourced schools, I wonder?

What they will spend their money on is a house right next to the best state school they can find. I have three friends who were on the fence as to whether they could afford private - VAT has been the final thing to make them decide that they couldn't. They all have kids at nursery, are all looking to buy pretty much next door to the most desirable state primary in their area, and in 5y or so will do the same next to the best secondary.

So VAT will price less well off people out of the best state schools, and when you take into account the cost of educating those kids who leave/don't start private, parents who cut their hours now they don't have school fees to pay and so pay less tax (or are less available for overtime in the NHS), and the absent tax take from the schools who have already gone bust and those who will, I suspect if properly measured over say 5y, it'll earn nothing. Great move.

Neither do academies, by the way.

As such, you’re far more likely to find unqualified teachers in state schools than in private schools these days I’m afraid. It’s perfectly legal and a lot cheaper.

Parents paying fees unsurprisingly expect their children’s teachers to be highly qualified. So the vast majority of us in the independent sector are qualified teachers, and some. Half of my colleagues have PhDs as well as PGCEs.

ISI inspections are also just as rigorous as Ofsted, though I would still say neither are worth the paper they’re written on most of the time!

it means that about 600,000 will continue to pay average fees of £15,000 per year, for a total of £9 billion. 20% VAT on top of that is £1.8 billion

Many parents at the more expensive schools especially have pre-paid fees for several years. Some of the pre payment schemes will be open to scrutiny, but there is a fair proportion of parents who will have avoided the VAT altogether. The government assumption that every pupil remaining in the private sector will be paying VAT from next week is ridiculous and wholly inaccurate. There are schools which had to close their pre payment schemes temporarily due to overwhelming demand.

I have neighbours who send their kids to private school. At least 2 families in our street. I doubt they are mega rich. The really wealthy won’t be affected by this, but the families who can only just about afford a private education for their children will be the ones who have to remove their children from the schools and try to find a place in a state school. It will be a massive upheaval for the children affected by this, having to be removed away from all their friends. At the very least there should have been some warning and a phased introduction of this.

I find it hard to understand how they can justify this when they chuck millions away on other things such as foreign aid to countries that can afford to run a space program. I wish I could afford to send my children to private school and can’t. But I still think this policy is mean and hasn’t been thought through properly.

Nor do the vast majority of state schools (around 80% at secondary level). In reality, private schools normally employ qualified teachers, but in cases where teachers do not have QTS, they normally have lots of experience working in jobs related to their specialist subject. I’d much prefer an “unqualified” science teacher with years of relevant experience in a science career to a “qualified” English teacher trying to teach physics for example.

There is an increasing problem at state schools of a shortage of subject specialists, leading to lessons being taught by teachers with no knowledge or experience of the subject they are being made to teach.

schoolsweek.co.uk/extent-of-classes-taught-by-non-specialist-teachers-revealed/

I've taught for 24 years, in state comprehensives for 15 years, and currently in an independent school. Despite loving my first few years of teaching, behaviour management become far too much of the job and I nearly left teaching for good after the last comprehensive. Had a headache every day, with so many children needing so much support before they were even ready to learn, and classroom management was the biggest part of the job. I left for the sake of my own family.

Fast forward a few years and I am loving teaching again, because I can actually teach and do my job. I'm in a co-ed boarding school. 'Crowd control' is no longer such a big part of it, although expectations on staff, and the long hours, are demanding in a different way. I have plenty of SEN pupils, and a broad range of abilities, including Oxbridge applicants. Parents are paying a lot of money and expect (sometimes unrealistically) high grades. If I end up losing my job through redundancy in the coming months or years, I won't be returning to any of my local comprehensives, and I don't think any of my colleagues will either. I will only apply for another teaching role in a different independent or a select one or two local state schools. I'll retrain otherwise. My sanity is worth more.

I wish the state system was more equal. We don't have grammar schools or selective schools round here, and to pretend that state schools are all equal is a fallacy. Selection by house price is clearly ok with this government, and it's going to become even more elite in that sense. It's easy for politicians to buy a house in an expensive catchment area and espouse the virtues of state education, but that's not the reality around much of the country. It has always made me cross that this is the case!

For me, so many of the sob stories have been eye-opener.

'St Aloyisious is, sadly closing. It had educated children aged 4-18, 250 of them with a staff of 80' 😞

17 kids per staff member???

Wow.

[quote] "Schools haven’t raised fees just for the fun of it. The cost of the TPS (teachers pension) has gone up considerably to the point where many private schools have had to withdraw but still provide one of an almost comparable value. This is a big drain on finances. When the increase came in a couple of years ago it added £1 million to my school’s wage bill.
Most private schools are housed in old buildings. The gas and electric bills are enormous. Our bills have certainly doubled over the last few years.
The cost of running a school is huge. It’s becoming ever more expensive year on year and that’s where the fee rises come from. A lot of schools just about break even and survive because of fundraising or endowments." [end quote]

You know this is also all true of state schools? If privates can't operate at double state schools' budgets rather than triple, then maybe they have actually raised fees, if not "for the fun of it", for decidedly non-core reasons over the last decade or so.

The ISI still do lots of them but they’re perfectly rigorous

All of whom could transfer their skills elsewhere.

It only seems to be certain teachers who wouldn't/couldn't consider a transfer into the state sector...

A lot of boarding schools especially have a low staff:pupil ratio (in your example, there is a ratio of 3:1). Aside from the academic staff, these schools provide lots of other local employment (cleaners, laundry, grounds staff, plumbers, sports staff, nurses, mental health support etc).

And by the way, all the teachers in my independent school are qualified. That's such an outdated myth. More likely to find unqualified staff in state schools nowadays, having to cover classes where they can't fill vacancies. It's really not great.

Yes and if it’s the one I know about, then the decline started years before Labour got in.

Labour won’t have long enough to turn the state education around in their one term leadership unless there is some cross party collaboration to get to grips with the issues.

Impact on private school numbers varies between areas.

Our school is seeing an upturn in numbers, picking up about 70 pupils from a school that closed in the next town. Also, more forces children due to a change in local deployment. And a slight increase in overseas pupils.

I was made redundant in August and will pay next term's fees using my redundancy payment. I have a new job so my income is secure. My tax-free lump sum will (ironically) cover all the VAT for ds' remaining five terms so his schooling is safe, thank goodness.

I have stopped all discretionary spending though until we are rid of this foolish govt.

Having experienced both types of inspection, I found ISI to be way more intrusive, with literally all.key stages, all subjects seeming to be seen and judged in both prep and senior. It was quite the eye opener.

Ofsted are seen in nursery and eyfs provision in the independent sector. So that's both ISI and Ofsted grades to publish - both top grades in our case.

LMAO

Regarding the SEN issue. This is so true

Dc’s primary school closed its SEN department and forced out those children with SENs

I think when I see people celebrating private school closures they are akin to the people who were celebrating that landlords could no longer put their mortgage interest against tax

These people just haven’t realised the impact of more pupils applying to a school that their own child might be looking to get into is going to reduce their own child’s chances of getting into their preferred choice of school

Agree with @BugsyMaroon and @IVTT and others. This was not a fiscally sound move and I don’t have kids but I’m incredibly uncomfortable at adults being gleeful or not caring about kids having to leave their school which can be very disruptive in these circumstances especially if they don’t live in any area with a high performing state schools.

And yes there’s massive hypocrisy from those who secure houses in catchment area with great schools only to then criticise private schools.

And yes there’s massive hypocrisy from those who secure houses in catchment area with great schools only to then criticize private schools.
or the whole grey area of grammar schools with selective intake and less behavioral issues.