Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

The boarder we know has had 3k on the termly bill. Fees are being paid out of an inheritance so they will have to rely on state for Uni as the 30k that was saved to help pay for that will be used up by then.

@Tarantella6 how is taking a child who is coping in a small school with more 1-1 attention out of this environment and putting them in a class of 40 where they struggle (potentially leading to mental health concerns and educational concerns according to you) of any benefit to society?
surely what everyone wants is for as many people as possible within the population to be educated to a level of future gainful employment.
if a few children are able to reach that goal with a bit more of a hand hold at certain points in their life isn't that better for everyone long term?
the tone of you post suggests envy that these children with less classmates somehow get a heads up on your child but if they are truly at a level where they struggle that will come to light.

I think we agree and you've misread my post.

Some are, if the Department for Education asks Ofsted to inspect them, but some are inspected by the private schools inspectorate instead. Ofsted aren’t inspecting Eton and the like!

Purely anecdotal here but I just registered my eldest for a private primary and got the last space, they’ve now got a waiting list. The first school I viewed was already full. I have 4 family members all of whom teach at private schools (mix of primary and secondary) and their numbers haven’t really changed (yet?). That’s not to say when reality hits it won’t be different (and also you give a terms notice, they got elected in July, so I assume January is when you’ll start noticing but apparently these 4 schools haven’t had any kids handing notice in where the space hasn’t been filled).

How do you know no state school will compare? My DD goes to an amazing state school, wonderful staff, many extra opportunities, a focus on music, languages, outdoor learning, reading… the list goes on. She adores it, thrives there and mixes with children from a wide variety of backgrounds. Don’t be so ignorant to assume that no state schools compare.

Just like Whitgift. Sacrificed the single-sex girls academically selective school, rather than the 2 boys. For transparency I am not a pupil, former pupil or current staff.

In my extensive experience probably small independent schools that support SEN or even just SEN students. Please note often state schools cannot adequately support these students without an enormous impact to their education and the education of fellow students in their courses. Please be very careful what you wish for.

Wasn't that because they couldn't get the numbers to be viable as girls only?

There GDST and other single sex girls schools in south London - I can think of 7 without trying - and there are more if you go south of Croydon.

Whereas Whitgift is flourishing for numbers as there are only 3 single sex boys schools in a similar area

(Yes I know I'm bound to have forgotten some!)

Yes that is we chose our indy. They have good SEN provision and exceptional pastoral care. I won't go into the reasons why our local state schools were not suitable because people will just say I'm lying or exaggerating to suit their own agenda.

If ours closes we will home school. Although I am going to my home country Australia next month and have already booked some appointments with schools near my parents to see what our options might be. Our local state school is not an option.

Various posters have said how this is going to improve the state sector and society?
How? You seem set that the ‘top’ 6/7% at private schools have all this power and connections and advantage. Why is it better that only the wealthiest 3-5% (or whatever it turns out to be!) have this instead.
With even more limited access for bright but poor kids that may have got a bursary.

Additionally poorer students are priced out of the best state schools due to house prices.
For the record I have 3 in an independent school but can’t afford to buy in the area with the best State School in our County!
Is this better for society too?

Is it better that my kids go to our local Sate secondary (which is a great school!) with an ‘as the crow flies’ max distance of 900m last year? We live 400m away so we’ll be fine. But all 3 will deprive a child that can’t afford to live so close of a place at a coveted school.

I’m over it now. The facilities are great and I’m confident my kids will thrive. As will I, when working a 4 day week from Sept and reducing to a 2 day week the year after.

Total cost to the taxpayer?
For the last few years I’ve saved the state £22.5k plus a lot of personal taxation.
From Sept we will cost the state £12k a year, from Sept 2026 £29k a year for at least the next 5 years.

So much money to come flooding back into schools!

yes all true. I have some friends who are moving to state and either both parents are going to aprt time or one parent (the mother usually) is giivng up work entirely because they won't have to pay the fees. That's alot of income tax that won't now be going to the treasury. Plus the cost of educating the children falls on the state.

It was never a fiscally responsible policy- it was always about ideology. We can't all be like Starmer and his cronies who have multi million pound houses in terrific catchment areas. And I will never ever understand why paying for education is seen as abhorrent yet playing fast and loose with houses and catchment areas is not. I also fail to understand the glee people display about private schools going under. I pay for my children out of taxed income. I don't give a fuck what other people spend theirs on. I personally cannot see the difference between buying a Kia or a Jag or Tesla. But I don't begrudge someone buying a Jag and think they ought not have one.

It was never a fiscally responsible policy- it was always about ideology.

Yes. They said they’d remove charitable status then when that proved impossible they came up with VAT instead - apparently to pay for 650 new teachers.
Doesn’t the Labour Party realise teachers are leaving in their droves?

I work in a very expensive and well regarded private school in London. We have lost 25% of year 7 and about 10% of year 8 and 9 this Christmas - all children whose parents have withdrawn them as they can’t afford the VAT hike. We as a staff are worried about how things are going to go moving forward. If the school continues to struggle to retain students and gain new ones come next September, redundancies will be on the cards.

A good proportion of our students have moderate to severe SEN and wouldn’t cope in a London comp. The reason they come to us is not because their parents are trying to buy them a ‘better’ education - their parents are buying them smaller class sizes and a calmer, more personalised environment in which they can access their education. Putting these kids into state education when their parents can no longer afford the fees will cost the state far more than they’re going to get from charging VAT on their school fees. A huge number of children and young people in private education have SEN and at the moment having them out of state schools saves the government money. The government haven’t thought this through at all and I’m afraid it’s going to be just like the Brexit bus with its claims that leaving Europe will end up giving the NHS millions more every year - of course it didn’t, and putting VAT on private school fees will do nothing to improve state education. Quite the opposite, actually.

And for the poster saying that the private school teachers put out of work will go and work in state schools instead - no, many of us won’t. I will leave teaching altogether if I am made redundant and can’t find a job in another independent school. The working conditions in state schools are horrific and charging VAT on private school fees is going to do nothing to change that.

It’s an utterly performative policy that will do more harm than good and I’m astounded so many seemingly intelligent people have fallen for the absurd claims the government have made about its benefits. I say this as a Labour voter myself!

No, only independent schools that are not members of other associations, such as the ISI or ISC are subject to Ofsted inspections - nearly all ARE members of the ISI and ISC, though.

Biggest issue with all this is that the attrition from independent schools has already lead to a shortage of places in state schools, before any major school closures. Surrey LEA has already publicly acknowledged it already cannot place current ex-independent school leavers in y9-11 state school places.

If the ISI is correct, the LEA will have no choice but to increase class sizes beyond the current 34/35 and up to 40 - which the Lab Govt have said they were prepared for and felt was an acceptable consequence of the policy. Of note, in my part of Surrey, all the children leaving/looking for places have SEN needs, so that will mean more money will have to be found to meet their needs too.

Very poorly thought out policy that will not only disrupt private schools children but also put the education and SEN services of children from families who cannot afford to privately fund their needs at risk as class sizes will be larger, SEN groups will be larger and the SEN staff will be stretched across more children. All children will suffer.

ofsted or isi a person still needs to read between the lines and decide what they find personally acceptable.
hill house international several years back failed a few inspections on what many felt were minor issues and despite the failings still provided a good education.
the super strict schools which are currently popular might be well rated by ofsted but i wouldn't touch one with a ten foot barge pole absolutely not the type of environment for children.

It is terrible policy making and will likely flood the state sector with DC with SEND as the smaller private schools go under, many of the ex private school teachers go work abroad and many of the top tax payers seek employment in other countries. The latter is the most worrying aspect. The NHS is on its knees, state education is a massive postcode lottery, the country is in economic decline, the non doms and most rich are leaving, businesses are closing or contracting, and anyone with a good salary but not much wealth is taxed to the roof and incentivised to leave. Things like good uni and good schools is what kept people here in the first place.
This kind of policy should only be brought in in a financial boom when rich people can afford to pay the VAT. The timing is totally off and there appear to only be downside risks.

I was asking seriously because I don't agree with any of the points you've made.

The private schools you're talking about will remain unchanged by this. I am aware of the positions of power held by those who have attended. This will have no impact on their world.

The playing field will never be level. It's unfair, but it's that way from birth. Some parents are going to throw everything into parenting, and that doesn't just include money.

Tbh the class size thing won’t matter in 4/5 years. The birth rate has dropped so low that many primary schools are reducing their PAN from 60 to 30, 90 to 60 etc
The last couple of years the class sizes in many schools near me have dropped from 30 to low 20s and this year is set to be even lower. One school which has an intake of 30 took 9! Schools have been desperate for more kids this year they need the money. And this is in an over subscribed and popular area.
So in turn, lots of secondaries who increased PAN from say 210 to 240 5 years ago, may not be getting 240 anymore soon. And if they don’t, they’ll have room for any private school kids with no class size changes needed.

They won’t put anything in place. This is exactly what angry Bridget wants.

Let's hope they all get SEN training then, as they'll need that. At what point does the cost of specialist training, classroom adaptions and security for schools with half of their old intake outweigh any benefits to the state sector?

I was hoping the headline was referring to a reduction of private schooled civil servants in Whitehall...

Absolutely agree @Tarantella6 - labour aren't worried about increasing costs of Sen support in state, they'll just fail more kids. Easy. Cost neutral.

And in 4 years another govt will likely rip it all up again...whilst we add even more people to the pile of young adults that can't work.

For all of these arguments, nobody is saying the obvious, that the private schools, many of whom have habitually raised fees at 5-7%/year during periods of near zero inflation, with some doubling in a decade, could maybe just reduce the fees themselves to adapt to the new market? It's not all down to the government.