Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

Only if the ECHP names a particular private school. There are lots of pupils in private schools with ECHP’s whose parents will still have to pay VAT.

This isn't a post about the relative good or not of charging VAT on fees. It's more of a contextual backdrop of what the independent sector is also having to manage.

My DP has been teaching at the same mixed independent prep and senior school for many years. We track the rise and fall of schools across the independent sector in the counties around us. The independent sector has been struggling for quite a while now. In the last 20 years many schools have had to make the transition from single sex to coed as well as extending to all years provision. Schools have also pulled out of the Teachers Pension scheme making alternative provision. Many boarding schools have setup marketing operations in Asia to attract more boarders from overseas.

Even before VAT on fees, here are some of the other financial challenges schools are having to juggle with.

(i) Brexit makes recruitment harder.
(ii) The Covid pandemic significantly increased debt levels.
(iii) Rolls of overseas boarders haven't fully recovered post-covid.
(iv) Energy and costs have increased as a result of the Ukraine War.
(v) Increasing cost of facilities renewal necessary to remain competitive.
(vi) Falling birth rate impacting rolls.
(vii) Increasing ratio of pupils requiring support / SEN.

A lot of independent schools aren't charities my DP's school being one.

Statistics show independent school rolls have increased by 50K since 1990. Perversely this rise is hiding a drop in the ratio of pupils attending independent schools as the country's population has grown by 20% since this time.

Unfortunately, a lot of supporters of the policy don’t understand this. Again, they just listen to mainstream media and politicians who don’t understand it either. We are in a position where parents of children with EHCPs, where the state provision has failed them, are being hit with the tax charge.

The NIC and living wage changes due to be introduced will also have a huge impact on private schools.

This is really interesting. Also many schools have had to limit numbers of foreign students because if you have too many you lose the ethos of the school that attracts other foreign parents it’s a very delicate balancing act.

Mate of mine left the state sector to work at a private school and she’s facing her A-level subject being cut because they’re just aren’t enough kids wanting to do it.

If the mergers reduce the number of single sex schools then that's a good thing.

Yes, one near here nursery to 18, girls only has just gone coed (didn’t we used to call that mixed sex?) I think starting in year five or six or something and it’s haemorrhaging kids. Once it loses it’s a USP as a girls only school it’s lost out. No boys want to go there because there are loads more attractive coed options nearby.

Couple of snidey posts after mine 😁 I didn’t ask for pity I just pointed out that most people in my situation would do what I am doing and most people in my situation don’t also just have 5k sat around gathering dust to give to the government for no discernible return. If I spent my disposable money on holidays or a bigger house or plastic surgery or designer clothes instead of education would that be alright? Or should I be giving anything over minimum wage I earn back to the state? Shouldn’t you too?

I would rather there be a good standard of state education so I didn’t have to pay for something that’s not a million miles away from my free state education in an average/poor comp in the 90s but that’s not an option in my locality in 2024. I don’t see how sniping at individuals is getting anyone anywhere - I’ll pay the vat and hopefully you’ll see an improvement in state.

Nope, not true. It is only if the LA is paying that an EHCP makes vat recoverable. I know plenty of parents of children with EHCPs that will be liable for vat.

and that is not even opening a discussion on how long it takes to get that EHCP (years and years) or how obstructionist many LAs are (discourage and delay seems to be their core operating principles). There are a great number of children perfectly deserving of an EHCP that do not have one.

Just out of interest, what is the government/council position with either of the following?

A) Child in Y11, parents cannot afford the extra VAT for next two terms. Where do council send them so as not to mess up GCSEs?

B) a more likely scenario... Secondary school goes under and has to close in February with immediate effect. What happens to all their Y11 and Y13 students sitting exams?

The government (and I suspect a handful of posters on this board) couldn’t give two hoots about such students - serves them right for being overprivileged poshos, doesn’t it?

Schools too often shut with immediate effect. There was a one quite famous one in Dorset that went under with immediate effect. I seem to remember.

Just googled. This one

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8533521/amp/Private-girls-school-Dorset-plunges-administration-closes-immediate-effect.html

Indeed. And apparently, according to one poster, my lived experience of private education and SEND is irrelevant. Yet the opinions of those with no experience of either is somehow entirely relevant?!

Children have to move schools already if a parent can no longer afford the fees or the school closes. What do you think the government should be doing if a private school closes or a parent no longer has the money?

My comment was specifically about a PP saying the school’s are greedy. I was trying to explain that most charitable schools don’t have a need to be greedy as no one to pass profits on to. It was not a comment about schools generally being part of the community. When my DC were at state school the weekly cake sale used to raise less than £20 so I’d argue few schools can stump up over £60,000 for charity as my son’s school did in December. Surely if they could all do that there wouldn’t be funding issues in the state sector?

They shouldn't be applying for a school that they have zero intention of taking up, thats just going to wreck the planning for those that do need these places... or don't you care about them?

1.5m children use school building that are deemed dangerous and or unfit for children to use.

The 1.1 to 1.3billion the ONS and IFS think this policy will raise, net, annually, will help.

But as usual the wealthy will do all they can to avoid helping the least well off, just as they always have.

@PestoPastaChaChaCha given how rich the parents will be, it really is not that much proportionately.

True, the exceptional part is allowing state school children to use their facilities for free. My daughters attend 3 different schools, all 3 have announced facilities will no longer be provided to state schools for free. I don't know enough about state schools to know the affect of this withdrawal on the students education. Perhaps swimming, dance, music, astro pitches, theatre, props etc are available for free elsewhere or perhaps now this educational experience will be lost for those students who knows.

From someone who grew up ‘poor’ (but only financially), and is now wealthy - it strikes me that some people simply cannot stand the fact that others have more money than they do. Many are happy private schools may close, as several are doing per the OP article. Many won’t close - they will soon be the preserve of the particularly wealthy. The gap widens. Well done team UK current government. Well done.👏🏻

Some issues that I haven't seen discussed much:

Opportunity cost. Because this issue is taking up attention/bandwidth of press, politicians and educators, there are far more important issues that are not being addressed. e.g. the desperately out of date GCSE/A level system; the worst of the changes implemented by Gove/Cummings; the SEN crisis.

International competitiveness. Studies like PISA and TIMSS fairly consistently show that the country's high performing students in STEM subjects are produced disproportionately by private and grammar schools. Treating education as a zero sum game where we tax private school parents and give the money to the state sector misses the point that this is not just a national issue. Currently, about 60 billion is spent by the government on schools, and a further 8 billion is spent voluntarily by parents, so a total of 68 billion. If the private sector contracts significantly, there'll be an overall reduction in the total national spend on education. Eg. supposing there's a 25% contraction, the money spent on fees will reduce from 8 billion to 6 billion, so while VAT on the 6 billion might raise around 1 billion it'll go into more places for displaced kids, not higher standards, and the total national spend on education would decrease by around 1 billion. As a nation we'll be churning out far fewer highly skilled students into STEM, negatively effecting our national competitiveness in a global economy.

Was intrigued as to how councils operate with suddenly finding a school place for a child moving now who is sitting exams in May/June this year.

Or indeed an entire year group in sudden need.

Our local private school allows this. It is of incredibly limited use to local state schools as they can only use them when the private school is not using them. It won't make much difference if they can no longer use them.

They could absorb the fee rises and just spend slightly less per pupil. That would still give them a massive funding advantage over state schools. If they still cannot attract parents, they should not be in business

The education authority look at where there are school places locally or what schools they can order to increase their class sizes to accompany any extra children. But you won't get the best state schools.