The Times had an analysis of this policy. Personally I think this would be a deeply irresponsible thing to do. Fine to plan to phase out private school in the long term if your aim is to remove it altogether. But to switch overnight and dump children from one into the other would cause untold disruption. It's not thought through at all and risks children's education at all years.
Does Starmer’s tax plan for private schools add up?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0a9ebb80-d542-11ed-9f4d-c5bd4b89feab?shareToken=fcbe0564abc9ef82936724fb39b6e66f
"But perhaps the most controversial proposal so far is Labour’s plan to levy VAT on private school fees (raising £1.6 billion) and make schools fully liable for business rates (a further £104 million). The policy prompted Sunak to accuse Starmer in December of failing to understand aspiration.
Independent schools have also warned that the policy, if enacted, would pile pressure on the state sector as it copes with a flood of privately educated pupils.
About 25 per cent of privately educated pupils would leave for state schools if Labour’s proposed VAT policy was implemented, the Independent Schools Council (ISC) has claimed.
Recent analysis by the lobby group suggested this would significantly impact the ability of parents to access their first-choice state school. It looked at the impact on neighbouring state schools of a quarter of pupils leaving private schools, in ten local education authorities (LEAs) in England, covering at least 19 Labour constituencies.
The ISC said families in the southeast, Bristol, Birmingham and Manchester would find it particularly hard to get their first-choice school.
Julie Robinson, chief executive of the ISC, said: “Labour’s plan to remove independent schools’ charitable status and suddenly raise fees by adding VAT would disrupt the education of thousands of pupils and restrict parents’ ability to choose where their children go to school. It would outprice parents who already make financial sacrifices to pay the fees and it would drive more pupils into the state sector as a result, adding pressure to an already stretched system.”
Kieran McLaughlin, principal at Durham Cathedral Schools Foundation, which has three schools for three to 18-year-olds, said: “We are all taking the issue [of Labour’s tax plans] seriously and there is cross-association work being done to talk to Labour MPs on the potential impact, not just on independent schools but on the maintained sector too.”
The head of Moon Hall School, a special needs school in Surrey that provides a tailored education for dyslexic children, said Labour’s plans would place a “huge” financial burden on the school. All pupils there transfer from other schools so have already experienced alternative settings that cannot meet their needs. Some have dyspraxia, dyscalculia and ADHD.
Michelle Catterson said: “Any surpluses we make are moderate and are invested back into the school. We do not have dividends, beneficiaries or, indeed, large donations. We rely on the income we receive from the LEAs and our privately funded pupils to continue the successful running of the school.
“If the Labour policies regarding schools were to come into place it would have a hugely detrimental impact for our school. To lose our charitable status, when we provide for so many children locally and from neighbouring counties, would place a huge burden on our finances.”"