GCSES re: grade allocation, is this fair?

[SeafrontBingo]

The facts are these I have an academic son in a London selective school. I appreciate this will be seen as a first world problem.

His school have told me the ranking system will mean that there will be 'winners and losers', he's likely to be a loser.

Are others comfortable if a similar situation arises for their child?

He's going to get good grades, he's bright and he works hard and I realise that this is a good position to be in. This is what I have understood:

He got 9s in all the mocks bar a couple of subjects and was predicted a 9 in all subjects bar one. The 9s he got in December were not 'high 9s' on the whole but not just over the line either. Some exams went very well indeed. He surprised his teachers given his sets. We were delighted his great grade predictions showed they saw his potential, the same as his mock grades for the most part.

The mocks involved questions from past papers and were very tough.

He's in comparatively lower sets and stream than others who got similar grades and performed at this sort of level. There would be evidence to show he was achieving at 9 level but some will be at an 8 etc and it depends what is chosen re: evidence.

Some other boyswho did much worse in mocks than he did are likely to be ranked higher as the school's metrics essentially say they are brighter. Higher sets, higher expectations etc, generally although this will largely play out as unconscious bias etc.

The school have said they won't let a bright child's poor mock performance count against them, those that would have pulled it out of the bag and done more revision towards the end will also be favourably considered if bright on the metrics etc.

They, in the ranking system, I think, will say whether a 9 was secure, marginal or very secure.

Even when there is evidence that my son 'beat' other students by 20 per cent in the mocks and has worked steadily at a high level the 'brighter' children are essentially seen as having under performed and he as over performing.

Not many get a full house of 9s at our school and my son won't.

I feel that many more than usual who are deemed 'best and brightest' now will get a full house re: 9s as there can be no 'off day' tripping them up in any way or a question or two that potentially throws them off. Great, for these children.

On school's metrics they are the scholars, the best and brightest etc so all 9s will have to be awarded.

These will be the 'winners'. My son who is further down the pecking order on their metrics could end up with 7s under this system as there are only so many 9s that can be awarded. It's an unusually able year but they only look at a couple of year's worth of data as I understand it.

They have been told to award as if it was 'a really good day' for child so does that not mean that others will assume a 7 was 'really' a 6 and so on?

I realise that it's 'only GCSEs' etc and others are not in such a fortunate position. How closely do universities look at GCSE grades?

I feel for you and your son. None of this is fair on any of them but there is nothing you can do about it. He may end up with good results and it may be that you worried for nothing. Equally, he will get a chance to prove himself in his A-levels. If he does lots of prep now he can get a head start and I'm sure will do very well. If he'd sat the exams it could have all gone wrong on the day/he'd been unwell. If he got 9s in mocks he should be given 9s for GCSEs, however the best thing you can do for him is build up his resilience and confidence so he can cope whatever happens.

Without you knowing exactly how your school have calculated the grades they are submitting I wouldn't assume he is going to be a loser. If he got 9s in mocks they'd almost certainly submit 9s. If his school has a history of 9s / A* there is no reason why these wouldn't be honoured

My DD is in a similar situation. We have agreed that as long as she gets at least a seven, she just moves on and focuses on the future. A levels and university applications all happen quickly. Better not to be distracted with appeals, retakes and bitterness when everyone will know it was a strange year anyway. Best to have great A levels and shrug your shoulders regarding a corona year.

Thanks for the supportive replies.

@eggofmantumbi I had a chat about him with the Head and they have effectively told me that he's not going to be a winner in this system. They may be trying to manage my expectations but he's in something like set 5 for Maths and did have one borderline 9 test in late Feb just before all of this lockdown started.

I never pushed on him being in lower sets, than, if I am honest, I didn't think were warranted and his end of year exam performances showed and schoolwork showed. I trusted and trust the school and thought it might just give him a slightly slower pace etc and help with confidence. He was always a bit of a late developer and is amongst the youngest.

It never mattered you see, the public exams were a level playing field for all. Now your position is more secure if there is evidence for your secure 9 and you're top 5 of set 1.

As I understand it they only have so many 9s they can award and it is going to be hard to argue that all of set 1 don't get 9s ahead of set 5 etc. Teachers will no doubt be in the unenviable position of arguing the case for particular children. If a school is over generous don't they risk being moderated down overall?

Of course, all the teachers and school want the best for all the students, it's very tough for everyone.

Even when there is evidence that my son 'beat' other students by 20 per cent in the mocks and has worked steadily at a high level the 'brighter' children are essentially seen as having under performed and he as over performing.
How on earth do you know all this? Who is holding this "evidence"?

Meeting with the head @Thisismytimetoshine and published mock results, with grade boundaries, grades awarded and averages given.

He didn't get 20 per cent more in every subject, he has particular strengths he did better than expected, that's my wider point. There are similar other outliers I am sure.

To add the head made it very clear that those who had under performed, as teachers/metrics/school saw it, in the mocks, would not be penalised. I can see that's a good thing too...

Oh, right. I've never heard of mock results being published in their entirety before.

The school shouldn't be discussing grades with you. The exam boards have been clear on this and the school will leave themselves open to investigations of malpractice.

There were only a few hundred children in the whole entire country who got a full set (ie 9) of grade 9s in the official exams last year. More girls than boys. Do you know how many there were in your child's school?
Our local private school routinely gives 9s in mocks. They didn't get any children with more than a couple of grade 9s last year. I fervently hope they are not allowed to grade inflate their students this year.

I get it. It is unfair that he doesn't get his chance to prove himself. But it sounds like he will still do really well. It's the ones at the crap schools who will suffer more. My child got 7 grade 9s last year. That's about 0.1% of all entries. He went to a school in special measures. Do you think he would ever have got anywhere near that based on school predicted grades/school average? Not a chance. There will be kids like him this year, in sink schools, held back by the reputation of their school. That's worse.

@BirdieDance

They are not discussing grades, we were given predicted grades on last report and mock results previously. All they have said is that they have to rank, say whether grades are secure or otherwise etc. They have also said that there will be winners and losers due to the awarding system. That's what I am exploring here.

@birdiedance is correct, that's poor form from the school. Also the school can award as many 9s as you want, it's the national number of 9s that are regulated

[quote SeafrontBingo]@BirdieDance

They are not discussing grades, we were given predicted grades on last report and mock results previously. All they have said is that they have to rank, say whether grades are secure or otherwise etc. They have also said that there will be winners and losers due to the awarding system. That's what I am exploring here.[/quote]
But you implied you have access to the mock results for the whole cohort?

What were the GCSE results last year at the school?

How many other children got nines in all the mocks this year?

I do sympathise though. I get it. It's not fair and it's hard to accept but it does help to look at the statistical chance of getting all 9s. It's really really low. Any 9s at all are great and it sounds like he will still do really well
It doesn't count for anything much at uni apart from a very very few places eg a tiny number (possibly one!) medical school scores 8s and 9s differently. That might change anyway for his year as those 9s are so dubious.

@NoHardSell, yes, you're right and this is a first world 'problem' if its that.

We don't tend to get very many who get all 9s, I think about 5 or 6 and of other high achievers English GCSE often lets boys down, apparently, who otherwise would get a full house.

Will this year see an increase in top grades at top end I wonder? Not for my son but top set etc?

Well done to your child. That's terrible that others will suffer, but surely if the schools can prove it with evidence and there are a smaller pool of high performers the child will end up with excellent grades if deserved?

The whole thing of proving yourself is important to so many, including my son. I wish there was another way for everyone.

Surely when they rank he will be at the top of the rank for every subject if he got a nine for his predicted grade and his mock grade.

I don’t understand why he will rank lower based on the sets.

The school will have vast quantities of data to grade on, not just which set they are in.

@NoHardSell that's reassuring on it not being so important re: Uni.

This is always the case, though OP and there are no guarantees that he would have achieved 9s when put up against every child in the country.

It is why predicting grades for pupils is very difficult and as a secondary teacher I never predict a 9 for students. I cannot guess where they stand when compared to every other pupil in their year group nationally. Roughly 2% of the country will get that grade and the grades will then be adjusted down from that figure. Which may mean that you need to obtain 98% in your exam to be in that top 2% - or it may mean that you need 91%, say.

I don’t really know what you mean by school metrics. If you mean they are ranking them on something like their y7 CATs then yes, that seems unfair. If they are ranking them on a range of assessments over the last 2 years and overall, despite his excellent mock results, other boys rank higher than your son even though they did worse on that exam on that day then it seems as fair as it can be. They can’t base it all on one set of mocks as if it was the real thing because it isn’t the real thing, but nor can they say “oh, but he is bright so we’ll boost his grade’” without any pulling it out of the bag evidence.

My ds worked his arse off for a few subjects and completely ignored a couple of them in his Feb mocks. How badly he did in the ones he didn’t work for was a real wake up call and he worked very hard, and likely would have continued to work hard until the exams to drag those grades up. He will be a loser there and possibly also a loser on the mocks he got 9s in because there are only so many 9s to go around. I don’t know how it can be made fair.

It's an unusually able year I have heard this, and it’s twin “last year was a bunch of numpties” more times than I can count since the grading system was announced. I suppose the only good thing is as gcse parents, we can have a bit of a guess what will happen when the a levels come out.

Surely if you're unhappy with his grades he can resit and prove his ability? As I understand, anyone who wants to appeal a grade can take this option.

Also, as PP, 9s are awarded at a National Level so you can probably scratch that wish off the list.

@HouseofEdwards I think they look at previous CAT scores, VR etc their metrics subtly stream them as well as set. So a hard worker who is less bright on paper and in the lower band not doing the top set texts for GCSE etc, harder to justify a more secure 9 for them, maybe? Not sure. There may be many who are ahead.

The 'winners' look excellent on the school's metrics and a poor mock result won't count against them.

They are not going to rank anyone lower based on sets but in large school it is going to be harder for me, teacher of set 6 arguing that a few of my set should be ranked ahead of scholar Johnny and clever Freddie in set 1?
Maybe... They will make it as fair as they possibly can.

I think universities are supposed to treat 8 & 9 the same as there isn’t a Scottish (and NI?) equivalent. They are both A* afaik, but my info may be out of date

They are not going to rank anyone lower based on sets but in large school it is going to be harder for me, teacher of set 6 arguing that a few of my set should be ranked ahead of scholar Johnny and clever Freddie in set 1?

Depends if Johnny, Freddie and set 6 boy have done the same assessments which can be looked at together. If set 6 are given different work, then yes, hard to prove, but if all given the same work and set 6 boy consistently gets higher marks, then no.

Do people feel that grades will be awarded more generously this year?