Private / Public Schools and Brexit

[jellycat1]

I read the Education boards a lot as we are planning to put our two sons through the pre-prep/prep/public school route. We haven't decided exactly where, but it will either be day Prep in SW London - so on the crazy 7/8+ bus, or a Surrey / Berkshire area day/boarding prep to 13.
My question is to current parents - what is your sense of the effect, if any, of Brexit on the demand for places at the selectives / super selectives? Do you think it may soften demand a bit or have no noticeable effect? We are overseas currently and all my friends' kids are older, so I feel a bit in the dark about it all - but then aren't we all...! Sigh...!
I know nobody has the answer right now but just interested in your thoughts really and what you hear in your schools.
TIA.

Sorry typo: I can name 10 not big name private schools.

@Needmoresleep Could you please spell out what the nature of the concern is?

@happygardening Even if you did I would still much prefer to look at some formal evidence / studies.

Don't get me wrong, top end education is definitely going to be more resistant to adverse effects of Brexit than most other areas, but your saying that there will be no effect seems like wishful thinking.

I suspect that the effect will be that an English Public School Education will be a much less valuable commodity, globally

Erm no

Lonodn Mum. This is a discussion thread, not an academic one. My posts are based on observation. On the Northern French coast close to Calais you will hear the same concerns about migration that you might hear in parts of the UK. Specifically I heard worries that a large influx of non-French speaking, Arabic script reading, kids into a nearby secondary school was having a significant impact on the school's ability to deliver a consistent quality of education to all its pupils. Right or wrong, very ordinary people were talking about switching to private (though low cost) Catholic schools. Parisians we know certainly use private schools in the same way as their London or New York counterparts would. Competition for top (private) French Universities, les Grandes Ecoles, is intense.

This observation was reinforced by reading something about increased demand for UK education from Germany. Affluent Germans are doing what their French counterparts have always done, but withut the same structure are turning to the UK.

Perhaps in turn you could spell out what it is about Brexit that is going to impact on the current overseas demand for UK education.

Erm no

I've got to say, I had my doubts but that elaborate and reasoned response has alleviated them all. Thank you so much for the valuable contribution.

You are welcome

@Needmoresleep That is not a coherent argument. If one is concerned about the impact of diversity on state education they would be hard pressed to pursue a state school in London as an alternative. If wealthy people from the EU wish to go private, they would likely consider the UK thus far, but will they after Brexit if FIM is removed? Could security be concern as well? In that case it's not clear if the UK is a great option either.

If you read my earlier post I was primarily concerned about the impact of Brexit on domestic rather than international demand. It's hard to see why the latter would significantly increase bar a further sharp drop in the value of the pound, in which case some bargain hunters might indeed be tempted.

Russia have absolutely no respect for us a nation but are more than happy to use our top private schools. Brexit won't make a difference other than to rich UK London based financiers who might lose out along the way.

"if FoM is removed"

I am with those who suggest a more rigorous application of the proceeds of crime act legislation to the private school sector (about bloody time) will have more of an impact.
I understand the smarter schools are sanctions screening parents now at the time of registration....

Unless there is a significant economic fall out from be exit there won't be any effect. The majority of international pupils come from British expat families or places outside of the EU like chiba and Russia. The only impact brevity could have would be on affordability for domestic families. Would be nice if competition for places eased though (pursing a similar route to yours, thankfully have secured a pretty prep place in an excellent prep school so don't have to worry for a few years now).

I am not suggesting for a minute that affluent overseas parents, whether from the EU or elsewhere would be looking at UK state schools. I thought the thread was about overall private schools demand.

Though interestingly a few state sixth forms seem to have added "private" boarding sections for international students. Presumably a good thing as the critical mass and extra funds should help improve the offer to local students.

And what is domestic demand? Plenty of DCs peers, indeed probaby the majority, had parents from overseas, many of whom spent time abroad. This was particuarly true of the Russians, and some from the Middle East, who may have based their families in London but whose business interests were elsewhere. It depends but my guess is that fall out from Salisbury, whatever it proves to be, could have more impact than Brexit.

I am happy to leave others to a coherent debate. My impression is that "coherence" seems to depend on people agreeing with you.

And what is domestic demand?

BNP and Britain First would likely disagree but I would consider foreign born parents holding ILR or British citizenship "domestic demand". Hope that makes sense. In view of that definition I would assume most demand for private (not sure about public) school places is domestic.

@Mercison Yep, Russians to the rescue. Sorted! 😂

Anecdotal.. Dd is at a 'top' girls private school 95% boarding. She has a few Russians, many expat Hong Kong, a few Chinese. One French girl one German. Probably 80% UK in her year.

"Probably 80% UK in her year."

Right. Certainly not the other way around, hence the importance of the domestic demand.

I’m not wishful thinking because my children are now at uni in fact if my head was on the block Id happily say I couldn’t care less. But I do suspect you are wishful thinking . Secondly London if you read my posts you will see I doubted it would have much effect short and medium term (to be of any benefit to your DS’s) long term I think it might have an impact because I think UK PLC as a non member of the EU will become increasingly insignificant.

@happygardening I'm thinking we should be well aware of the risks and do our best to address them. And yes, my DC stands to be affected by this Brexit clusterfck - not sure what's so funny about that.

How many places at UK boarding schools do you think we’re talking about?
Only 7% of UK children are educated in the independent sector apparently around 600 000 over 5% are international overall but only 70 000 board and an average 20% are international pupils.
By boarding I suspect the figures include flexi boarding which is obviously cheaper as well as weekly/full, and then there are parents who choose boarding for 6th form only (14% of those privately educated are 6th form only so a significantly less financial commitment. So shall we say we’re talking about 65 000 UK children in UK boarding schools. I suspect there will always be enough UK families out there with that kind of money Brexit or no Brexit. So I have now done some research so my comments are less based on anecdote more on evidence although of course I can’t guarentee the validity of my sources. In the UK over 650 000 earn in excess of £165 000 pa sufficient to consider paying boarding fees on,y 10% of those need to want to send those children to boarding school to maintain the current numbers not that many really. So I remain unconvinced Brexit will have any impact on super selectives/selectives short and medium term as we all know money goes to money.
You by the way have as yet failed to show any real “evidence” to the contrary.

Im not laughing,. But I am becoming increasingly confused by your comments apologies if I’m getting the wrong end of the stick! You think they’ll be a “risk” that there will be less applicants for super selectives/selective because of Brexit and that we should do our best to address this?

The main risk is that due to the faltering economy or perhaps worse yet "the government in waiting" rising to power, fewer people will be able to afford private schools which would impact the standards and obviously limit accessibility. Hope that's reasonable. This must be causing a concern amongst some potential overseas parents too.

I personally don't think the "faltering economy" and 'fewer people being able to afford private schools will have any impact on the super selectives/ selective likes of SPS, Eton, Winchester Westminster. ( the first three by the way have generous bursary schemes, I know little about Westminster so cant comment). I can see it might impact on St Elsewhere who don't have generous bursary schemes and where most of the parents are the comfortably off MC (if they weren't paying fees) and are making economies to pay fees but that wasn't what you asked in your OP. Although I suspect the significant government cuts in the education budget will mean that many MC parents would rather sell themselves than send their DC's to state schools.

I suspect the significant government cuts in the education budget will mean that many MC parents would rather sell themselves than send their DC's to state schools

Well if that's supposed to put people's minds at ease then I am happy to rest my case. Post-Brexit UK is looking to become a gloriously positive place indeed.

I suspect that selective private boarding schools will have VERY little problem filling their places.

Some of the state schools I'm aware of that have opened boarding houses are reacting much more to UK forces redeployments rather than Brexit (Kings Gutesloh is probably hollowing out more than ever)

London private day schools are probably twitching quite a lot because the "energy" of London will be affected once Brexit actually happens.