Private / Public Schools and Brexit

[jellycat1]

I read the Education boards a lot as we are planning to put our two sons through the pre-prep/prep/public school route. We haven't decided exactly where, but it will either be day Prep in SW London - so on the crazy 7/8+ bus, or a Surrey / Berkshire area day/boarding prep to 13.
My question is to current parents - what is your sense of the effect, if any, of Brexit on the demand for places at the selectives / super selectives? Do you think it may soften demand a bit or have no noticeable effect? We are overseas currently and all my friends' kids are older, so I feel a bit in the dark about it all - but then aren't we all...! Sigh...!
I know nobody has the answer right now but just interested in your thoughts really and what you hear in your schools.
TIA.

@peteneras I agree regarding public schools, however, those are really a separate category whilst your original statement pertained to the much broader set of private schools. I should note that such a lapse of attention to detail is quite unbecoming of your superior pedigree.

I really cannot see any lowering of demand from China for places in independent schools in England for at least 10-15 years. If anything, I think the demand will increase in the next ten years.

Bravo Draylon

However much I don't like it, I absolutely agree with you.

@PhilODox

That's an interesting hypothesis. Do we know how many independent school places were awarded to Chinese candidates in 2017, 2016 and 2015 and what proportion of places did that represent?

Clavinova, you are confirming my choice of a word as
'f he or she is making an informed guess based on reasonable evidence, presume is the word to use; if a guess is made based on little or no evidence, assume is usually used'

I am making an informed guess based on reasonable evidence - pete's essays - that he/she/it has questionable intellect etc.

Thank you

I agree with PPs that the effect on Asian influx will be minimal. Any effect from Brexit negotiations will be mainly for London day schools. Will there be less wealthy Europeans in London due to banks etc moving their headquarters? Who knows.

However Brexit may also diminish the international profile of UK universities and that will also reduce the attractiveness of UK private schools for overseas Even well endowed universities like Oxbridge will suffer from a reduction in EU collaborations and funding. It depends whether the government can compensate for loss in research and HE funding but that seems unlikely.

In the private schools in Toronto I think that we are seeing some of the effects of Brexit. We have the advantage of being English-speaking, with access to both UK and USA universities. In addition the Canadian ones (McGill, U. Toronto, UBC) are becoming more widely recognised. Our financial system is stable, and our markets are becoming more outward looking not less, so it is a good place for foreign investors to park their assets. The political atmosphere compares favorably with the USA. The education system is considered good, and more nurturing and less competitive than most Asian countries, UK or USA. The rich are welcome to buy their way in via the foreign investor program.

I believe that we are seeing an increasing number of families sending their kids to board from abroad. Most of the unaccompanied seem to be from Mainland China, but we have a significant number from other Asian countries e.g. South Korea. We are also seeing more families nominally relocating to Toronto - they use flexi-boarding as the parents split their time between China and N. America. We are also seeing British families who previously worked in The City relocating to Toronto as our financial sector benefits from office re-locations pre-Brexit.

I think that Canada will benefit from Brexit. The question is whether the pool of wealthy candidates is unlimited, or is Canada in competition with the USA and UK for the same few private school candidates?

I also think that Wincollparent is right about British universities. Oxbridge will be okay, but there must be financially lean times ahead for the Russell Group research centres.

UK science will get hit pretty hard by Brexit hence the basically unanimous calls for Remaining from the community. Of course the slim majority of the.great British public had other priorities. While OPs question seems to pertain more to prep/primary level, this outlook will inevitably affect the decisions of foreign parents considering a long term placement in the British education system for their DCs.

I suspect there will be an effect on demand for the traditional UK curriculum offered in the track you have chosen, OP.

This will be because of the effect of Brexit on UK universities, even Oxbridge, as foreign talent will think twice about working in academia in a hostile climate and EU funding of research ends. The university brain drain that has already begun will accelerate. Schools offering the IB otoh are going to be turning people away. More UK students will consider US and other universities, and the IB is an international standard so impervious to UK fluctuations.

Then there will be the knock on effect for foreign parents of the spectacle offered to the world of so many public school boys making fools of themselves by promoting Brexit, and lying to the electorate to boot.

Associated with that is the fear that a child might suffer a xenophobic attack.

Plus Peteneras' comment that the electorate didn't know what the EU was until they woke up one morning and gave it a two fingered salute is apropos here. There are many who would think twice about sending a child from another country to be educated in a place where people are so proud of their ignorance.

Well some very reasoned and extremely eloquent posting on here. Thanks all.
To clarify Another, by selectives / super selectives I'm talking about the likes of St Paul's, Kings, Westminster, City, Dulwich etc etc (and also further afield to the big name boarding schools), the demand for which, to a parent of two small boys, seems utterly insane. It's something that I've been wondering about. Having said that, if demand for those places fell away, it would likely be alongside some other serious repercussions, which might preclude us from two sets of 14 years of fees anyway. I think we'll all be watching and waiting over the next few years. I hope PPs who've predicted little or no negative effect prove to be right.

I think it’s more if the fee paying parents lose their jobs. I know some parent who work for the EMA that did.
Also some companies pay the school fees.

It’s the loss of financial passporting/euro clearing etc as a lot of the parents tend to work in the financial sector.

It all may seem inconceivable now given a prolonged period of London's success as the financial hub of Europe, but it's important to remember that the city lost about 25% or 2 mln population between 1950 and 1980, i.e. in "the sick man of Europe" days back towards which we are headed now. Even more worryingly British democracy is ailing at best. People of clearly very dubious morality have managed to latch into power, the Leave campaign itself was based on blatant lies (never mind possible criminality and shady funding) exposure of which has had little effect so far. The opposition is very weak but clearly adversarial to private education.

I don’t think it will have a significant effect on the over subscribed superselectives/selectives in the short or medium term certainly not in time to help your boys OP.
In reality the number of EU children in super selective/selective boarding school is very small, there are significantly more Asians and Russians. Expelling a few Russian diplomatic staff won’t impact on this as most Russian children parents live in Russia or at least are not permanently UK based. If the UK government decided to impose visa restriction on all Russians or make getting a visa more difficult that might have an impact. But as not only do Russians send there children to UK schools they are spending other money that benefits the UK PLC economy; they are shopping in our high end shops, employing a massive number of the UKs high end contrstuction firms so I can’t imagine that this will happen.
Long term there might be an impact I thought what UKsounding said was very interesting. I think we forget that we are a tiny island and that we are no longer an empire IMO (for what it’s worth) is that the danger with Brexit is that we are so small that we become insignificant irrelevant and could get trampled underfoot by the rise is power and of most importantly wealth of the Asian countries. I think many Asians would choose North America over the UK and especially US universities and the Canadian ones and therefore more will look to boarding schools in other countries.

@happygardening seems to have missed the point which is the effect of Brexit on private education is likely be most significantly driven by the overall impact on the economy rather than through the likely reduction of the number of EU applicants. It's certainly wouldn't be true to say that top selectives are mostly populated with children of Russian and Asian oligarchs, and even some of those parents may be scratching their heads looking at double digit % losses on their property investments.

A proportion of super-rich are prepared to invest heavily in their children's education. British schools are attractive because of our language and because the better ones are practiced in applications to top US Universities as well as those in the UK and Canada. (Westminster School has one of the best records for applications to top US Universities of anywhere in the world, including the US, which creates a big demand from Asia and elsewhere, for full boarding sixth form places.)

Brexit wont make any difference, indeed exchange rate changes will help. .

In addition there is growing concern in places like France and Germany, where people have traditionally used state schools and where there a system of academic private schools has not really developed, about schools, and the market for education in the UK has grown. Again there is no obvious reason why Brexit should have an impact. DC will be able to return home for University should they want, or have a good shot at a range of international Universities. (There is equal concern in France about their University secotr, and few international French seem to want to return instead choosing Britain, Canada, the US or elsewhere.)

I thng HG is wrong about Oxbridge vs the rest. Oxbridge are two British Universities with good international reputations. Places like the LSE and Imperial are perceived in many places as International Universities that happen to be in the UK. There is a difference. One gives you the full Hogwarts experience. The other means access to China Town or the Cine Lumiere, whilst studying with an international cohort. The latter is often preferred.

"I don’t think it will have a significant effect on the over subscribed superselectives/selectives in the short or medium term . . ."

Now here's a UK public schools guru when I see one . . .

"To clarify Another, by selectives / super selectives I'm talking about the likes of St Paul's, Kings, Westminster, City, Dulwich etc etc (and also further afield to the big name boarding schools), the demand for which, to a parent of two small boys, seems utterly insane."

I did guess you meant 'very selective' (not 'super selective' which has a specific meaning which is nit applicable)

And when the economy is softer, demand for day schools goes up and getting a place becomes more competitive,, but demand for boarding places (full fee places that is) softens and becomes less competitive, though of course 'less' is a relative term here, and in practice for some sought-after schools simply means that the level of oversubscription has moved from 'insane' to 'huge'.

Overseas demand is likely to hold up from those seeking a native English-language community. Ireland would be the only other European possibility (as 'lots of people speaking it excellently as second language' simply doesn't have the same draw) and other destinations are significantly further away. But I agree with PPS that numbers of foreign students won't be the crux, it's be the overall state of the economy.

I think you miss understood me London I never said the top selectives are mostly populated with children of Russian and Asian oligarchs but there are more of these children at top selective boarding schools (DS2 attended one) than children of EU oligarchs.
Im also not sure that Brexit will have any impact on families from the EU who can cheerfully stump up school fees. The sort of numbers we’re talking about is actually miniscule in the grand scheme of the things and what ever happens to the economies in the UK, the EU, Russia or Asia there will always be enough people with sufficient money to pay fees. Those with big money the oligarchs and multimillionaires will as always come out of this fine whatever the outcome.
The evidence is that as said above many schools are actually expanding not only the top selective ones. A school near us which was primarily a day school has recently opened a boarding house specifically aimed at taking girls in yr 11 doing a crammer GSCE course with a significant EFL component., apparently they’ve filled every vacancy fees are high. Many others are doing the same thing; many minor private schools are opening boarding houses and taking children from abroad for many this is the thing that kept the wolf or bank manager from the door. So I’m afraid I suspect think your clutching at straws if you think it will be easy to get a place.

"The evidence is that as said"

Do you mean your anecdotal evidence or some other evidence @happygardening?

@needmoresleep

In addition there is growing concern in places like France and Germany,

What's the nature of the alleged concern please?

The focus on "super-selectives" seems odd. As with the UK, plenty of demand comes from parents who are worried about their kids getting lost in the middle of local schools, or who want to give their DC a boost from having fluent English. (Not least, and dare I say it, but if you spend time in eiher France of German you will hear people worry about the impact rapid inward migration has had on traditional catchment schools in some areas. I don't have the figures but I would expect there to be a parallel uptake in the use of "private" Catholic schools in France.)

If you watched the documentary on Gordenstoun you will have noticed a significant group of Germans, and ditto at places like Bournemouth University. My old school has always attracted boarders from Catholic countries like Poland and Spain, particularly for sixth form. I cannot see that demand decreasing. The EU is essentially a trade bloc. Many parents want an international education for their children. The link between the two is not obvious.

And generally from Asia, the US is normally the aspiration, though visas can be an issue. Demand overall continues to grow, but the UK faces strong competition from Canada, and particularly Australia, and to some extent places like the Harrow International Schools. China is investing deliberately and heavily in their secondary and tertiary sectors and who knows. In 20 years time perhaps our DGC will be applying to schools in Asia, drawn by the chance to become fluent in Mandarin.

I could name at least 10 not-private schools which are not big names and who are primarily day schools that have opened boarding houses aimed at non UK children. I can also name at least 5 big names like Sevenoaks who are building more boarding houses. There remains little appetite for boarding amongst UK parents so I think they are looking outside of the UK to fill many of these spaces. I know a couple of bursars who are quite open in saying that non UK students have saved their bacon.
So you might say it’s anecdotal or some would say it’s evidence from reputable sources and data collected. Ok not enough “evidence” if you were a drug company trialing a new drug but maybe an indication of a trend at the very least.

LondonMum8 - observation only, but based on many year of cheap gite holidays in France, where other guests were petit commercants from industrial Northern France. Ordinary people worry about chance. Rich people buy their way out. My understanding is that HG is worng and that some less academic private schools attract good numbers of German pupils.

Change, not chance.