Get a grip, OP. The VAT rise won't mean huge numbers of children leaving private education because governing bodies will not want to see their numbers fall and their schools ultimately close down. So all schools with their books balanced will find cuts to make and readjust their capital spending plans, so that they can lower fees a bit to cancel it out.
Unfortunately one of those cuts will be services they offer local state schools, and also bursaries like one of my DC is on. So during the few years before the VAT rise happens, it may be that a Labour government would change their mind.
If not, then bursary kids like mine will likely be leaving. And also kids of families who have already commited every penny - but they'd have had to leave the next time the schoo hiked the fees up anyway! And class sizes will increase a bit for everyone, probabaly, as some staff will lose their jobs. (Sad of course, but they'll have plenty of choice of jobs in the public sector where they're badly needed.)
Yes, this VAT plan will hit my family. However I'm still voting Labour, for the first time in a long time, because the alternative means an education system, health system and security system already on their knees will break entirely.
Plus, some of my DC are in state schools so I see the disparity between the education on offer, and how the funding cuts are severely affecting educational provision.
So many parents at my son's school have told me that they recognise independent education increases divisions in society and that they only send their DC private because it's the best option in a bad, two tiered, system. My challenge to other parents who've chosen independent education who feel the same is that this is the chance to do something about that imbalance. The fact that we don't pay VAT on something that is very much a luxury means that this is fair, in my opinion.