Can someone explain to me New Zealand?

[idontknow54789]

Sorry for the ignorance/naivety here but can someone explain to me the reasonings behind such extreme lockdown measures in NZ? At the beginning of the pandemic they're approach was fully accepted but surely now with vaccines and omnicrom being a 'milder' form of covid they have to start setting sense? Is it about the health system? I understand there's a severe lack of ICU beds but is locking down so much really better for health? Can anyone explain it to me please?

‘ cases ‘ mean very little if hospitalisations remain low. Lots of us getting omicron here in the uk.
It’s a cold…

@Turangawaewae

Have any of the UK based critics actually watched a jacinda ardern presser? Cos she is all over the detail of COVID and communicates well. The polls here generally show support for her government. Add in this week's record low unemployment figures and so much of the criticism she's getting here is totally unfounded.

I'm almost loath to suggest you look at your own leadership.

You are more than welcome to look at the Boris Thread if you want to suggest that.

That said I think the vast majority of the UK is over the other side with Boris and there really is nothing more that you can say. The public have no power really now and can just wait and watch.

But none of that actually has anything to do with the fact that New Zealanders who were left outside feel disenfranchised by what has happened. For the most part I think this thread does say that she has done a good job and the personal attacks are completely unfounded. But most of the actual criticisms come from New Zealand citizens

But surely even the most ardent Arden supporter has to look at this

Much of the NZ response has been excellent, but the MIQ process has been a shambles. that CallIt posted and go well yes I can see that it is a fair criticism

@5pot6pot7potmore

it means

When a quantity such as money in the bank, population, or the consumption rate of a resource grows steadily, at a fixed percentage per year, we say the growth is exponential. When the growth of a quantity is exponential, the amount doubles in a certain interval of time.

The doubling time is definitely speeding up for New Zealand - to be expected it has grown in the same way in most other places that Omicron has hit. And will speed up to reach heights that no other variant reached

@Gennz18

We are definitely experiencing exponential spread, 209 cases today and less than a week ago it was 100. That is exponential. It will be thousands within weeks. Que sera. It has to happen.

272 today... The growth does seem to be exponential, or at least something approximating to it. This was inevitable with Omicron and an approach that stops short of Chinese-style suppression, especially in a population almost totally without prior infection and a vaccine that's mediocre at stopping transmission. NZ couldn't defy Covid-gravity forever.

That's not a failure on NZ's part, and I think Jacinda Ardern and her Government have done an excellent job to date overall.

However, I do wonder whether the "I bloody love Jacinda" crowd will react when their Covid-free "paradise" disappears from under their feet and they are forced to confront reality that the saintly Jacinda can no more stop the tide than King Canute could.

"The doubling time is definitely speeding up for New Zealand"

Then it's not exponential. For exponential growth, the 'doubling time' (or more precisely the constant of proportionality between the parameter and its time derivative) must not change with time.

I think in the strict sense yes - in the way it is thrown about for Covid and other countries New Zealand is seeing the Omicron growth that others have seen

@5pot6pot7potmore

"The doubling time is definitely speeding up for New Zealand"

Then it's not exponential. For exponential growth, the 'doubling time' (or more precisely the constant of proportionality between the parameter and its time derivative) must not change with time.

Well yes, in the strictly mathematical sense the growth in NZ may not be exponential, and truly exponential growth has only been seen at very rare points for very short periods anywhere... However, the current very rapid growth over the past week in NZ is similar to what's been experienced elsewhere, and given the current situation, I don't see any reason why current trends won't continue for a while with many 1,000s of daily infections being reported within a fortnight. I may of course be wrong....

NZ is at a crossroads... Now the 'cat is out the bag' regarding Omicron in the country, either infections are allowed soar, or severe restrictions will need to be imposed nationally for an indefinite period.

Neither will play to the narrative "I bloody love Jacinda" crowd who seemingly believe she and NZ can "walk on water" when it comes to Covid and do what's been impossible elsewhere, live with Covid whilst keep infections very low simply by some simple minimal "mask, vaccine, ventilation" restrictions. When their bubble is burst will they still "bloody love Jacinda"?

Don't get me wrong, she's done a great job in getting NZ to this point - few Covid deaths and an largely open society over the past two years is an amazing achievement. It has understandably bred a kind of NZ exceptionalism - NZ has been an exception after all - but their period as being able to look at the rest of the world with smugness and horror as it sat in the "ivory tower" at the edge of the Tasman Sea is coming to an end.

@Gingerodgers

Errrr, omicron is here. We are just trying to slow the spread, flatten the curve. Some of you seem a tad over invested.

There was a lot of gloating going on from The Antipodes on MN a few months back aimed at the unfolding crisis in the UK.

It's not pretty but it is human nature to 'retaliate' if the shoe appears to be on the other foot. That's why.

I dont remember much gloating, just kind of horror and disbelief. Which is pretty much how most people here were feeling tbh

@Turangawaewae

I feel anything but imprisoned or that Jacinda is a tyrant. My life is pretty normal considering. Most kiwis are just heading back to work after a glorious summer and my colleagues are pretty chipper. Check out #nzhellhole on twitter for photos if you want to see how things are going.

Zero covid forever was never the aim. 2 years down the track we are going into omicron 90 percent plus vaxxed, with new treatments, a healthy economy and what we believe is a milder variant. And negative excess deaths.

That's what success looks like to me.

But I think the question being pondered on here is now NZ is at a crossroads, what might happen?

As you will have read on here once you untie your NZ flag cape, plenty of Kiwis aren't at all happy with JA's policies, and fear that only having one strategy has left NZ potentially pretty vulnerable unless the borders remain closed for ever.

@SquirrelG

Complete failure during the time they had to get people vaccinated and improve healthcare infrastructure, and actually have a coherent plan for when it did inevitably get in…

So, the UK improved healthcare infrastructure over the past couple of years did they? That doesn't tie in with what I read on MN.

Well, to be honest, we in the UK have done a pretty good job with vaccinations, the NHS wasn't overwhelmed and my Trust, for example, is getting 80% of its medical imaging equipment replaced over the next 2 years on the back of a post-Covid overhaul.

I think the pandemic has focused a fair bit of attention on the state of the NHS, and changes are being made. And interestingly, there are waiting lists for HCP degrees.

At the start zero covid was the aim. Certainly for New Zealand if not for pretty much everyone. Time and variants have changed that as has vaccine effectiveness as stopping spread

@SquirrelG the NHS never have the time or breathing room to do so. It was pretty much firefighting from the start. Completely different to New Zealand where the question of did they use the time they gained through good policy wisely

No one has ever been able to envisage a viable exit strategy for NZ and there remains many unanswered questions.

The UK demonstrated in December that with comparable vaccination rates to NZ, Omicron infections led to a high number of hospitalisations among unvaccinated people. NZ has a poor healthcare system by European standards (speaking from experience) and it remains to be seen how it will cope under pressure. In addition, vaccination-induced immunity is waning (booster rates are very low and many people received the Pfizer vaccine) and natural immunity is low.

.... only having one strategy has left NZ potentially pretty vulnerable unless the borders remain closed for ever.

The ship has sailed on that strategy now omicron is spreading rapidly. Either NZ will be riddled with Covid infections in weeks, or the much vaunted freedoms (at least within their borders, and those outside Auckland) have experienced over the past two years will need to be trampled upon. With Omicron there is no light touch third way that will keep an effective lid on infections whilst maintaining a fully open and free society.

The fact the rise in numbers is in it's early days means the vast majority still aren't impacted on a personal level, or even know a friend of a friend that's been infected, and can continue to feel haughtily "chipper" and imagine their "glorious summer" without Covid will continue through 2022 thanks to Jacinda's god-like qualities.

With Omicron there is no light touch third way that will keep an effective lid on infections whilst maintaining a fully open and free society

This is the inconvenient truth, yes. It'll be a shock to the system in NZ alright, but it had to be faced at some point.

Has anyplace actually managed to put a lid on omicron even with severe restrictions? The only places that seem to have are places like China and it doesn't seem to be working there.

A real question may be that given the lack of exposure so far, will omicron hit them harder.

Quartz2258 I don't think it's true most places were going for 0 covid at the beginning. Most places realized that with a coronavirus that was a very unlikely possibility.

Has anyplace actually managed to put a lid on omicron even with severe restrictions?

Good point, it didn't work for the Netherlands

A real question may be that given the lack of exposure so far, will omicron hit them harder.

That's a good question, I guess we'll find out.

Another way to look at it though is that it won't hit them as hard as the original strain would have with no vaccines.

Don't get me wrong, she's done a great job in getting NZ to this point - few Covid deaths and an largely open society over the past two years is an amazing achievement. It has understandably bred a kind of NZ exceptionalism

NZ is in a unique situation. I wouldn’t call it an amazing achievement. They were lucky in the very beginning and then they used their position to advantage, slammed shut and didn’t let the small matter of human rights get in the way of staying shut and mandating quarantine for community cases for as long as they had the capacity to do it. Yes they have had freedom to live “normally” within the borders but there are numerous examples on this thread of how far from normal that has been for many citizens. New Zealand has had the strictest and most draconian restrictions outside of China. That is nothing to crow about.

I feel like I have to keep reiterating that for us in Auckland, we haven’t lived normally. We had the longest, strictest lockdown in the world last year. 20 weeks I think. Schools shut, everything bar pretty much supermarkets shut for the first 6 weeks or so (can’t remember exactly, I’ve blocked it out), then only takeaways open, a police border around the city border. All because our Govt dragged its feet on vaccinations. And that’s on top of essentially losing freedom of movement to travel out of the country - not as bad as being rendered stateless like Kiwis abroad but still a severe (albeit justified, in 2020 and much of 2021) restriction on fundamental human rights.

When you look at that alongside the economic cost of our Covid response, the rampaging house prices and their consequent impact on inequality - then I fail to see why Ardern’s leadership should be regarded as anything but a bit shit, when all is said and done.

And I say this as someone who has done well out of skyrocketing house prices - on paper - but how will my kids ever buy a house? And what about the egalitarian NZ we grew up in where poor kids - which I was - had a chance of a better life than their parents? Minimising Covid deaths is pretty much the only thing Labour have done to make life better for NZ but at what cost?

Also I am not anti Ardern, I think she’s a good person, I was delighted when she became PM in 2017 and I voted for her again (although not quite as enthusiastically) in 2020.

I think Grant Robertson is very capable, Hipkins is somewhat capable, and the rest of her cabinet are mediocre at best.

NZ's situation is not unique. Quite a lot of island nations have done similar and are now facing the same (well actually worse due to lack of health infrastructure) decisions about how to proceed.

One thing I never understand is high house prices in NZ. There’s tons of land there, I think it’s bigger in land size than England, Scotland and Wales combined and we have 66 odd million people living in houses and flats here.
There should surely be plentiful space to give everyone in NZ a 5 bed detached house!
Who owns all the land? Is most of it inhospitable? And even if lots of it is that is also true in U.K. with mountains and moorland and wetland etc.
It can only be political not to build more homes as land shortage can’t be the problem and demand can’t be either.
Imagine half the population of Londonsoread out living in the whole of the U.K.
We could have literally acres of land to run around in each. It would be marvellous

@Porcupineintherough

NZ's situation is not unique. Quite a lot of island nations have done similar and are now facing the same (well actually worse due to lack of health infrastructure) decisions about how to proceed.

Praying for Tonga right now. The COVID situation there is not looking good. It's absolutely heartbreaking.

@sashagabadon

One thing I never understand is high house prices in NZ. There’s tons of land there, I think it’s bigger in land size than England, Scotland and Wales combined and we have 66 odd million people living in houses and flats here. There should surely be plentiful space to give everyone in NZ a 5 bed detached house! Who owns all the land? Is most of it inhospitable? And even if lots of it is that is also true in U.K. with mountains and moorland and wetland etc. It can only be political not to build more homes as land shortage can’t be the problem and demand can’t be either. Imagine half the population of Londonsoread out living in the whole of the U.K. We could have literally acres of land to run around in each. It would be marvellous

They have to have somewhere to work as well as somewhere to live.

Neither will play to the narrative "I bloody love Jacinda" crowd who seemingly believe she and NZ can "walk on water" when it comes to Covid and do what's been impossible elsewhere, live with Covid whilst keep infections very low simply by some simple minimal "mask, vaccine, ventilation" restrictions. When their bubble is burst will they still "bloody love Jacinda"?

How thick do you think the population of NZ is? I very much doubt any thought covid was going to be kept out forever, and that when it arrived here we would not have problems, but what the government (not Jacinda) have done is buy time to get the vaccines rolled out. I am in the "I bloody love Jacinda" crowd and have always known that covid would run rampant eventually -however I am not going to change my mind. For what it's worth I have never sat here being smug either.

As someone else said earlier on this thread, a lot of people here seem overly invested in a country on the other side of the world, but then having seen the derogatory comments every time a country other than England is being discussed on MN I should not be at all surprised. Any excuse to run other parts of the world down.