So confused about numbers

[Fedupsotired]

How are they saying numbers are going down when in schools they are going absolutely mad! We're having a day on day increase. Are people just not reporting now?

One of my DC’s school (KS1) has had an outbreak in last couple of weeks (around 10 out of 30 positive cases). It started just before Christmas and it has gone through all their families.
Another DC, another school, outbreak straight after the Christmas holidays (9 out of 24).
All kids back at school now and haven’t heard further positive cases. Parents are telling each other of cases on WhatsApp groups. Schools not telling us anything.
I think it sweeps through certain classes at certain schools and when it happens, you just have to deal with it. There is no point having whole school, local authority wide restrictions because each is a mini outbreak. It isn’t necessarily even regional.
Other 2 DC, nothing at all in their classes at the moment.
None of my kids have caught it nor their teachers from these outbreaks. I think we have been lucky.

@GoodnightGrandma

Nit reporting positive LFT’s I’d say.

Do we have to report cases of nits now too?

re-infections are included in Wales - far smaller population than England of course. Plans to include in reporting for England on the dashboard from end January (ish). Given the depth of data it presumably is not as straightforward as it sounds. It will interesting to see if they do a with and without; or just all numbers now include re-infections (based on whatever definition of that is used) with some sort of supporting before and after summary; and presumably will be applied retrospectively back to day 1, by age band and down to council level areas as well as regional and national.

I think we do need to understand sooner rather than later whether reinfection is much more likely in unvaccinated children vs fully booster adults. It seems to be going that way. It will then inform of whether mass vaccination of ages 5-11 should be recommended.
We know 3 children who have had Covid twice within 3-4 months. In all cases though it was very mild and they were over it in one day. If there were no isolation then maybe it wouldn’t be a problem getting these reinfections but my feeling is, we will end up having to vaccinate primary age children.
I think it is actually crucial now to understand reinfection properly.

In London - I knew of so so many friends and colleagues who got this in the weeks before and after Christmas. Know no-one who has it at all now.

So my perception is different to yours - for me it seems as if numbers are clearly decreasing

thank god we don’t need to rely on your perception of the situation or mine - but objective stats!

@Waxonwaxoff0

Early days but a decrease starting.

Thanks. So I wonder if a slight delay to lifting plan B makes more sense otherwise they’ll jump up again (as they’re with the relatively minor Plan B measures in place).

@MarshmallowFondant I have been looking at ICNARC data for patients in ICU with a positive test. Between 91 snd 96% main reason for admission was COVID.

@Namechange466

In London - I knew of so so many friends and colleagues who got this in the weeks before and after Christmas. Know no-one who has it at all now.

So my perception is different to yours - for me it seems as if numbers are clearly decreasing

thank god we don’t need to rely on your perception of the situation or mine - but objective stats!

But that's the issue, the data isn't objective. People in the council are being told that people aren't reporting cases so the true figures are very different 🤷🏼‍♀️

If there was mass school closures then surely it would be reported by someone in the media? It’s unlikely that would go both unnoticed and unreported,?

It isn’t mass school closures, it’s schools limping on with tens if cases per class; adults spread thinly or groups combined; non-specialists or support staff taking classes; 1:1staff removed from those who need it; busy work being set rather than proper teaching; teachers teaching 3 classes by having the lesson Zoomed onto the whiteboards in 3 rooms; children missing a couple of weeks of learning in batches so the class is perpetually in ‘revision of missed work’ mode; teachers absent with no supply so any warm body being put in front of classes (midday supervisors; school secretaries; after school club workers). Heads spending all their time working in cover.

That is what is happening all the time. It’s not newsworthy, but it is having a significant impact on children’s education- but unequally, so can’t be accounted for properly in exams.

@Blubells

Cases are not going mad at our school.

Nationally cases and hospitalisations are definitely going down.

In England?

My school has just had its first lot of cases since before xmas, so its hardly the case that your experience is reflective of all around the country.

@Waxonwaxoff0

I don't think we are desensitised to the deaths, we've just realised that long term restrictions aren't practical. We were told in March 2020 that a 3 week lockdown would eliminate Covid, now we understand that Covid won't be eliminated and unfortunately deaths will always be a part of it.

No, we weren't told that a three week lockdown would eliminate covid. Please find some evidence to back that up?

[quote Northsoutheastwest76]@MarshmallowFondant I have been looking at ICNARC data for patients in ICU with a positive test. Between 91 snd 96% main reason for admission was COVID.[/quote]
Honestly, people don't care, because it doesn't affect them directly.
They'll do what they've done for the past 18 months - ignore the evidence when it's presented, yet continue to spout their misinformation and dodgy assumptions on another thread. Then when it's evidenced there too, they'll move on again.

"Hospitalisations and deaths are going down" (paraphrased)

If you are specifically talking about in YOUR AREA, say so.

It’s very quiet in my area at the mo. Low level cases in all local primary schools. We are in Yorkshire. I’m sure it’ll come but what I’m seeing is very different to you OP. It’ll be up & down across the country!

Surely it's a mixture of things? Cases are dropping but probably not as quick as figures would have you believe as many people won't record LFD.

Our school has gone absolutely insane and is now shut.

We are all positive and I feel rubbish!