So confused about numbers

[Fedupsotired]

How are they saying numbers are going down when in schools they are going absolutely mad! We're having a day on day increase. Are people just not reporting now?

Amazing that parents have more idea what is really happening in schools than the staff who work there.

Our head sends the info out in the weekly newsletter

Not really that amazing to know what's happening in other schools if you have friends around the country 😕, maybe some of you don't have as an eclectic mix of friends 🤷🏼‍♀️.

I just thought it was a bit worrying when I'm hearing from people high up in the council making contingency plans to be put in place for when schools will close due to the high levels.

They are under the impression that numbers aren't correlating to the figures due to lack of LFT reporting, so parents are testing their child and keeping them at home, informing the school but not reporting the figures.

If what a pp said about not counting reinfection then that could make a big difference as a lot of our school cases are the children who have had it previously.

@Postchristmasflab

Amazing that parents have more idea what is really happening in schools than the staff who work there.

Our head sends the info out in the weekly newsletter

Same here, lots of my friends also got a regular updates from their school with the numbers they have. This is from schools around the country in case people are wondering not just one area 🙄

Hospitalizions are decreasing so cases must be decreasing.

DS's school seems to be fine.

Fastest way to get a drop in cases, make tests very difficult to get hold off & reporting unnecessary.

As for not counting re infections...🙄🙄

Why are people even concerned about the number of cases?
Surely it's hospitalisations and deaths that matter. And those are coming down thankfully due to vaccines and antivirals!

@JugglingJanuary

Fastest way to get a drop in cases, make tests very difficult to get hold off & reporting unnecessary.

As for not counting re infections...🙄🙄

What about the decrease in hospital admissions? That would suggest that cases are going down.

Our local schools are fine. There were high numbers of cases last year so probably most of the kids now have some immunity. Unless you have friends in every school OP you aren't seeing the whole picture. People who are not in school also catch covid.

Different schools will have outbreaks at different times. Ours were at their worst in October / November. A few schools with outbreaks doesn’t affect the overall number of cases across a population of 65 million.

@Blubells

Why are people even concerned about the number of cases? Surely it's hospitalisations and deaths that matter. And those are coming down thankfully due to vaccines and antivirals!

Completely agree. The fact that Amy in year 8, Miss Smith who teaches English and six boys in Year 10 have tested positive is neither here not there.

But to be fair, we've all been conditioned into it. We've had two years of obsession over cases and rates and cases per 100,000 and graphs and the rest of it. It's hard to take a step back and adopt a different approach.

@Blubells

Why are people even concerned about the number of cases? Surely it's hospitalisations and deaths that matter. And those are coming down thankfully due to vaccines and antivirals!

Are they? Yes compared to last year but I think in the last few weeks they’re ticking back up? A bit of dip in the first bit of January but I think going up in older people?

I can’t find any independent data that I trust (if I had more time I’m sure I could)

A good guide to case numbers can be the lack of pupils waiting outside your kids classroom in the morning and the fact the teacher is a different supply teacher each day...

Early days but a decrease starting.

And the graph provided by @Waxonwaxoff0 clearly shows that this omicron peak around the turn of the year is a LOT lower than previous peaks.

Good news. Time to stop counting cases.

On a point if fact - deaths yesterday were the highest they have been since last February. Yes, we believe they will follow the trend of hospitalisations and cases and begin to fall slowly to a continued high level, but at the moment, they are not falling.

It is entirely possible for infections / reinfections (invisible in figures) to be massively rising in schools at the moment, and for hospitalisations to be falling - current hospitalisations reflect the first part if the Omicron surge (which was amongst adults as schools were closed). Current in school infections / reinfections will result in fewer hospitalisations per 100 infections, because of the age group concerned, so the ripple of their admissions will be missed within the larger pattern of adult admissions. The thing to watch out for is whether those child cases (disruptive to education) feed in to higher age groups (worse for health outcomes).

It is also worth pointing out that even if naturally or artificially declining, case rates are massive, and deaths at a level we would once have found profoundly shocking - we are just desensitised

@Aroundtheworldin80moves

A good guide to case numbers can be the lack of pupils waiting outside your kids classroom in the morning and the fact the teacher is a different supply teacher each day...

Well, yes. But we are well used to the fact that children’s quality of education is unimportant, as long as schools are physically open.

The daily death figures are the number of patients that died WITH Covid not OF Covid. Omicron is so prevalent that there is a good chance a certain percentage of patients will test positive even though they are admitted for something else. It would be helpful to know what percentage died/or admitted as a direct result of Omicron. I had read that patients testing positive in mental health settings were counted in the figure of those currently in hospital for Covid.

I don't think we are desensitised to the deaths, we've just realised that long term restrictions aren't practical. We were told in March 2020 that a 3 week lockdown would eliminate Covid, now we understand that Covid won't be eliminated and unfortunately deaths will always be a part of it.

@CarrieBlue yep and if I remember correctly also someone with history for being positive on LFT but not reporting. Still isolated although isolation included walking the dog. Will take that with a pinch of salt.

@KimWexlersPonyTail

The daily death figures are the number of patients that died WITH Covid not OF Covid. Omicron is so prevalent that there is a good chance a certain percentage of patients will test positive even though they are admitted for something else. It would be helpful to know what percentage died/or admitted as a direct result of Omicron. I had read that patients testing positive in mental health settings were counted in the figure of those currently in hospital for Covid.

The Scottish government were pressured into giving these figures and they really, really didn't want to.

I can't find a link to the article but as far as I remember, it was a 60/40 split. 60% because of covid (all variants, not just omicron which is milder) and 40% who were ill with other things and just happened to test positive too.

Our primary school is currently being overrun secondary not so much

@Waxonwaxoff0

I don't think we are desensitised to the deaths, we've just realised that long term restrictions aren't practical. We were told in March 2020 that a 3 week lockdown would eliminate Covid, now we understand that Covid won't be eliminated and unfortunately deaths will always be a part of it.

That is the very definition of ‘desensitised’.

@WhatsWrongWithMyUsername

There were still more than 90,000 cases reported yesterday, that would have been unimaginable a couple of months ago.

Go over to the stats and data thread, that was talking about the data by age group, I think it was going up in primary age group again.

@Fedupsotired www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4457355-Data-Stats-and-Daily-Numbers-started-18th-January-2022

@WhatsWrongWithMyUsername cheque is in the post

@Theunamedcat

Our primary school is currently being overrun secondary not so much

Primary school children are a pretty much wholly unvaccinated population, and do seem more vulnerable to Omicron than previous variants, so that makes sense.

@cantkeepawayforever well, people do die every day of various things. Covid will just be another. Desensitised? I dunno.