So confused about numbers

[Fedupsotired]

How are they saying numbers are going down when in schools they are going absolutely mad! We're having a day on day increase. Are people just not reporting now?

They can be going up in some places but down at population level. My school isn’t going mad at all - it was in December.

You are talking about 1 school, the numbers refer to the entire country.

Not going mad in ds1 school. There were cases in his class over the last few months but haven't heard of any since Christmas.

@Ifailed

You are talking about 1 school, the numbers refer to the entire country.

No I'm not, I'm talking about a number of schools over a number of areas- I do talk to other teachers 🙄

I agree OP

But then schools and the children and adults in them have never mattered when it comes to Covid!

One director of education in one authority is looking at large closures and redeployment of staff who work for the authority but not in schools to cover sickness. This is not in my authority but another one. The plans at a high level seem to be crisis management

Cases are not going mad at our school.

Nationally cases and hospitalisations are definitely going down.

I'm not sure what it is you aren't understanding?

A perceived increase in one section of the population doesn't negate a decrease in the rest of the population.

Where are you, op?

There's obviously regional variances

Only mad it some schools, for example not mad in either DH or the DC's schools. They had all their outbreaks in December I think and no one seems to have had covid this term so far. Also a number of my colleagues and their families had it over Christmas, but that seems to be behind them now as well and no new cases among those who didn't have it.

Hospitalisation rates are going down too so it can't solely be a lack of testing or reporting, I think we genuinely are coming over the peak of this wave even if there are localised hot spots.

And the drop in cases is not down to lack of testing, as the drop is also reflected in the ONS and Zoe

There are multiple things going on at once:

• differential case rates between age groups
• differential case rates between regions
• reinfections are not included in daily figures (and school pupils are a likely group to be reinfected)
• fewer people getting PCRs after rule change and LFTs not being registered
• cases do appear to be dropping according to ONS data - but not by as much as the daily figures, which are no longer comparable with a fortnight ago really

There are more adults than children in the country, so it's perfectly possible for numbers to be going down across the board but up in schools.

Are you (and the other schools you know) outside London? Because my understanding is that at the moment the fall is mostly driven by London. This is hopeful because they had their rise earlier (but not loads earlier), so it means it shouldn't take long for cases in the rest of the country to reach their peak and start to fall.

Hope you don’t teach maths

The ONS survey also points to cases falling.

Def not mad in our school - not a single case out of whole secondary school since xmas

I'm in SE, there are zero cases in our school, but my dc's nursery in the next borough has loads, seems there is much variation.

It's not hard to understand that how ever many teachers you talk to it isn't quite the same as the ONS and Zoe daily monitoring of the overall situation

Do you think that they should save their time and ring round a few local schools instead?

Do you think they’re being dishonest in the national figures? I’m confused by your confusion!

Seeing as in primary schools they are spending several hours together daily, no masks or vaccinations, and not a lot of other precautions... its hardly surprising transmission is higher.

@Fridafever

Do you think they’re being dishonest in the national figures? I’m confused by your confusion!

The UKHSA are not being dishonest but the numbers are no longer comparable to two weesk ago for the reasons I outlined.

The government are most definitely spinning the numbers as being better than they really are, by continuing to discount reinfections.

Numbers can be 'honest' and still wrong!

@Watapalava

Def not mad in our school - not a single case out of whole secondary school since xmas

That is statistically extremely weird. Is your school in China

Well 7 day numbers shows a 22.5% reduction in the number of tests conducted so it's no surprise that case numbers are going down.

A few things going on probably-

You are no longer required to take a pcr test if you get a positive lft result - hence fewer positive results being recorded. I doubt many people register their lfts.

Regional variations- my DC's schools were both hit really hard with covid pre Xmas with 10+ kids off in any class on any given day and back in bubbles. Now there's no cases at all in either of their year groups and all kids back in class.

OP it's going crazy here too, though seems to be much worse in primaries and early years settings, less so in secondaries (where it was really bad just before the Christmas holidays).