Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Laurence Gilder says 10pm is the current estimate.

Is that 10pm tomorrow do you think?

Maybe I'll be right!!

Am really wondering if someone in govt has said NO to releasing (ostensibly) huge figures against the backdrop of the afternoon's shenanigans.

Probably too conspiracy theorist though!

I had the same thought Jangly. I'm giving up refreshing for tonight.

Out now twitter.com/Pouriaaa/status/1488282432231067648?t=i7AotCRkk-Cg8V05nOAHxQ&s=19

Look at England only to see the reinfection data. Looks as if about 10% of daily cases are reinfections and this has been pretty steady since around the start of January (ie since Omicron took over). Early December and before it was much lower - around 1-2%.

Overall trends look much that same with the reinfections added in as they did before - not rising as suggested by Zoe.

You beat me to it with the tweet firefliess.

Yes it doesn't look any worse than predicted.

Nothing to get too excited about really. Based on England spec dates

October to Dec 2020 1.6%

Jan to Nov 2021 2.4%

Dec 2021 8.95%

Jan 2022 1st to 25th only 12.35%

Regional and age differences will be interesting to look at.

The only refers to the time period not the percentage.

In my local area reinfections are quite a lot lower than average. I think that's probably because we've not been particularly hard hit earlier in the pandemic, so fewer people to reinfect. Be interesting to know where reinfections are highest.

For week to 23rd Jan

North West 15.6% increase with addition of reinfections.

Yorks and Humber 15.5%

North East 15%

West Mids 14.1%

East Mids 13.2%

London 11.2%

East 10.3%

South East 10.0%

south west 9.7%

England over the past few weeks by week ending

12 Dec 4.5%

19 Dec 9.2%

26 Dec 10.4%

02 Jan 11.6%

09 Jan 11.6%

16 Jan 12.0%

23 Jan 12.2%

Quite a North south divide there with the reinfections isn't there? I thought London might be higher.

@Firefliess

Quite a North south divide there with the reinfections isn't there? I thought London might be higher.

London surprised me. Although it’s late so room for error of course

This is just for week to 23 Jan.

Some of the bigger LA increases

Blackburn 23.3%

Rossendale 23%

Pendle 21.7%

Hyndburn 20%

No real surprises there

At the other end

North Norfolk 4.4%

MidSuffolk 5.7%

Guildford???? 5.7% although it was 9.3% in the prior week. Worth a double check.

Reinfection rates looking high, especially for January (thanks boys3) and a definition of a reinfection being more than 90 days later than a previous infection (is that right?)

and a definition of a reinfection being more than 90 days later than a previous infection

Or 4 negative tests in between, but that suffers from a logging issue I'm sure - who logs negative tests?

I have been keeping an eye on the daily infection figures for my London borough which have been averaging around 300 per day. Overnight (with the introduction of reinfection rates) the daily total has shot up to 2,961 (!). Can someone more knowledgeable than me help explain what this means? Are things actually pretty dire in my borough, or is this all quite normal/to be expected?

@WombleOfWimbledon2022

I have been keeping an eye on the daily infection figures for my London borough which have been averaging around 300 per day. Overnight (with the introduction of reinfection rates) the daily total has shot up to 2,961 (!). Can someone more knowledgeable than me help explain what this means? Are things actually pretty dire in my borough, or is this all quite normal/to be expected?

I think that's the backlog of reinfections that they've included at local authority level. So don't worry - cases haven't suddenly shot up massively overnight!

@Firefliess thank you!! That makes sense - I will put the gin away…

@sirfredfredgeorge

and a definition of a reinfection being more than 90 days later than a previous infection

Or 4 negative tests in between, but that suffers from a logging issue I'm sure - who logs negative tests?

Agreed, virtually pointless apart from maybe for HCWs or anyone else required to and monitored on logging ALL their tests, surely?

Just run some numbers. By mid September 6.5m people in England had received a positive test result at some point in the pandemic. This is the group who could potentially get a reinfection during January and it's 11.5% of the population of England (56.5m). Boys3's calculation is that 12.35% of cases in January were reinfections, meaning that those who had a confirmed infection by September were slightly more likely than other people to report a new infection during January.

Obviously a whole load of confounding factors here - some people more susceptible due to lifestyle, biology, etc. Some more likely to report a case. Vaccination status, etc. But does point to Omicron being very good indeed at evading immunity from past infection.

Just realized that with all that maths I can't count to 3 . Should have used infections by mid October as potential reinfected people. This is 7.3m, which is 12.9% of the population. So a very similar (just slightly lower) chance of a reinfection in this group compared with a new infection in the remainder of the population.

Agreed, virtually pointless apart from maybe for HCWs or anyone else required to and monitored on logging ALL their tests, surely?

There are an awful lot of negative tests logged every day. Current average is something like 1.2 million per day, with about 100k of those being positive.

This is the age split for cases now added

• just for England

and

• just for December 2021 and January 2022 up to 25th of the month

Fairly self-explanatory

One thing - beyond the increase in those very oldest age groups (waning immunity presumably given timing of boosters) - is that up until yesterday we just had first infections reported. Now we have overall infections reported; but not, as far as I can see the ongoing split between between first infections and re-infections - unless I'm missing something. quite possible The position before yesterday's update is known and the change - excluding the most recent days - is in the main going to be the addition of the re-infections. Going forward though......?