Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@wintertravel1980

Erm, that's still pretty small?

I guess boosters and acquired immunity are driving the number down, but still…

FWIW, I was always surprised by low household SARs reported in PHE technical briefings. The highest for Delta was around 15-16%, if I remember correctly. There must be some methodology nuances I do not fully understand.

I think some of that was early denial about young children bringing the infection into the house, often asymptmatically or with easily missed symptoms and limited testing. Household infection wasn't picked up until the parents tested positive leaving everyone wondering why the kids didn't get it thereafter.

@containsnuts

containsnuts "Reinfection info is going to be crucial for how the situation is managed going forward. Surely, if reinfections are common, rates remain high, and people get covid every 90 days or so it could be a nightmare for the symptomatic people being ill forever more on a 90 day cycle. Any evidence of people getting it worse 2nd time or does everybody get it the same or milder?"

treeflowercat
"Where do you get 90 days as being the average re-infection period? That seems extremely short to me".

No, not average just POSSIBLE from around 90 days.

If 90 days was the earliest point that you could nornally be re-infected, the average time would be significantly greater. And there wouldn't be a 90 day re-infection cycle in the population.

The point I'm trying to make is that there is the potential for reinfections with people being unwell to some extent each time. I'm interested in what the consequences of that might be, for example, if we got covid every few months in addition to other regular infections like colds, flu, noro etc. Sickness absence will likely be higher for the forsaable and I don't see a plan to deal with it.

@containsnuts

The point I'm trying to make is that there is the potential for reinfections with people being unwell to some extent each time. I'm interested in what the consequences of that might be, for example, if we got covid every few months in addition to other regular infections like colds, flu, noro etc. Sickness absence will likely be higher for the forsaable and I don't see a plan to deal with it.

Ok, sorry, i was being pedantic.

Having just done some quick research, adults get between 2 and 4 "colds" each year on average, with children getting up to 12! Most of these will be very mild or asymptomatic, and it seems that Covid, particularly Omicron, is fitting into this type of upper respiratory illness, so it just becomes one of many circulating viruses, each of which has the potential to reinfect after a few months. The best way to manage this moving forwards is to remove isolation and treat it as any other bug.

The best way to manage this moving forwards is to remove isolation and treat it as any other bug.
This would be fine if we continue to vaccinate everyone, including children, every 6 months. However this currently isn't a realistic possibility. To continue do this long term would require an expansion of the nhs but could also potentially reduce our immunity to fighting other illness.

@treeflowercat

Absolutely, we can remove isolation but we can't remove people feeling unwell, even if it's only a few days for some it adds up with the sheer number of cases. Some people are quite unwell even if not requiring medical attention. This is why I think the reinfection info will be so important so we can assess the impact and plan moving forward.

Would we need to go on vaccinating most people regularly? Wouldn't regular infections be at least as good at protecting against severe illness? I would imagine we will offer at least annual shots to older people though.

Having covid in the world will probably mean we all get sick a little more often. But we will get used to that and come to accept it as normal. There isn't any other option.

if we got covid every few months in addition to other regular infections like colds, flu, noro etc. Sickness absence will likely be higher for the forsaable and I don't see a plan to deal with it

The "symptoms" in 40% of detected covid cases were "no symptoms at all", so no, there wouldn't be any sickness absence in those cases as they wouldn't even know they had it, so it's not quite as you describe.

The 2-4 colds a year, is also with symptoms, if we were doing asymptomatic testing for other respiratory illness it would be much higher.

40% of detected covid cases were "no symptoms at all"
Where did you find this number please.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/infections

about 43% omicron, 41% delta, source is "ONS infection survey"

When I was a child there was no mumps vaccine so most children caught that and had a week or so of school. Measles and whooping cough were common too (despite vaccines which hadn't been taken up well enough). Only girls were vaccinated against rubella (aged about 10) so boys and younger kids caught that too. There was no meningitis vaccine and that killed and crippled many more than today. Older people died younger because we hadn't yet developed so many treatments for long-term health conditions. HIV was a death sentence. So overall the disease burden on society has gone down hugely just in my lifetime (I'm only in my 40s). What's happened with covid is that it has taken a step backwards - life expectancy just dropped for the first time in decades. But it all just means we're back to the same overall disease risk we were at a decade or two ago. Hospitals need to have the capacity to care for covid patients alongside other patients, but I don't think the rest of society needs any radical changes to cope with one extra disease amongst many.

@Firefliess

Would we need to go on vaccinating most people regularly? Wouldn't regular infections be at least as good at protecting against severe illness? I would imagine we will offer at least annual shots to older people though.

Having covid in the world will probably mean we all get sick a little more often. But we will get used to that and come to accept it as normal. There isn't any other option.

I agree... I don't see why we need to vaccinate the whole population twice each year to move forward and scrap isolation.

Uni spiking down in the West Country. Lots in the last few days too, including DD and her friends.

life expectancy just dropped for the first time in decades.

I’m not sure this can be attributed to Covid (or its effects).

Solely to Covid

Born, whilst live expectancy improvement was levelling off (mostly due to the smokers and heavy industrial workers no longer being alive as the main group who died really young) and whilst it was very probable that obesity would cause a decrease life expectancy in the future, at the moment the reduction was pretty much covid alone, over the next few years we'll see what the restrictions impact was.

But yes life expectancy hasn't changed much with covid, unlikely to need any change in society, it really is only serious 'cos it's novel.

@Firefliess

When I was a child there was no mumps vaccine so most children caught that and had a week or so of school. Measles and whooping cough were common too (despite vaccines which hadn't been taken up well enough). Only girls were vaccinated against rubella (aged about 10) so boys and younger kids caught that too. There was no meningitis vaccine and that killed and crippled many more than today. Older people died younger because we hadn't yet developed so many treatments for long-term health conditions. HIV was a death sentence. So overall the disease burden on society has gone down hugely just in my lifetime (I'm only in my 40s). What's happened with covid is that it has taken a step backwards - life expectancy just dropped for the first time in decades. But it all just means we're back to the same overall disease risk we were at a decade or two ago. Hospitals need to have the capacity to care for covid patients alongside other patients, but I don't think the rest of society needs any radical changes to cope with one extra disease amongst many.

I'm not sure it is quite this simple though. Do we really want to go back to those days if we can possibly help it?

When I did my teacher training in the mid 1980s I did some weeks of observation in a school for the deaf.
Quite a few of the older students had serious learning difficulties as well as being deaf. This was often caused because their mothers had caught rubella in pregnancy. I don't want to accept a return to the lower levels of life expectancy of my childhood as when our neighbours' baby died of pneumonia in a flu epidemic without being seen by a doctor because he wouldn't come out to him!
Other children were seriously disabled because of severe cases of mumps and measles even though it was 'mild' for most.

It isn't just about losing the elderly and infirm either. My nephew who is of primary school age looks like he is now suffering from long Covid.
We need to have a huge vaccination effort in other countries so that new variants are way less likely. Then we have to have an annual vaccination for, say, over 50s.
You're also working on the assumption that no improvements in vaccines are possible. I suspect that within a couple of years, much better ones will be available and until then we should be cautious.
I'm not in agree about going back into lockdown unless another much worse ( in terms of death and serious illness rates) variant emerges but I do thing we should also be taking actions like offering vaccines to over 5s whose parents want it.
I'd hope we can reduce levels of Covid by doing this type of thing.

Re: vaccinations of younger children

The Norwegian Institue of Public Health has published their rational for not recommending vaccine to this age group. Here is the summary of key considerations:

twitter.com/StabellBenn/status/1482773269753307136

This statement will inevitably be viewed as highly controversial by Indie Sage:

Vaccination of children with covid-19 vaccines may lead to a poorer immune response to future variants of the SARS CoV-2 virus. This is because the vaccine is based solely on a specific variant of the spike protein while undergoing asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infections at a young age will give a broader immune response to more parts of the virus…

It’s not quite as simple as not recommending vaccines for this age group though. They did think it was appropriate for vaccines to be offered to all 5-11 year olds who wished to be vaccinated and recommended that the Norwegian government expand the vaccine program to all 5-11 year olds not just the ones that have been eligible since December.

They do recommend vaccination for children who will be travelling to countries where there is high levels of transmission. Which would include the U.K. where transmission is still extremely high. If the same scientists were making recommendations for the U.K. government, it’s possible if not likely that they would strongly recommend vaccination for all 5-11 year olds.

Which would include the U.K. where transmission is still extremely high. If the same scientists were making recommendations for the U.K. government, it’s possible if not likely that they would strongly recommend vaccination for all 5-11 year olds.

Transmission in Norway is currently higher than in the UK.

Yes, it is fair that Norway offers vaccines to children of those parents who want them. However, it is still not a formal recommendation.

This is because the vaccine is based solely on a specific variant of the spike protein while undergoing asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infections at a young age will give a broader immune response to more parts of the virus

I don't understand this, vaccinated people are still catching it in their droves.

This is because the vaccine is based solely on a specific variant of the spike protein while undergoing asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infections at a young age will give a broader immune response to more parts of the virus

Why is this not also true for people in their teens, 20s and 30s?

@lonelyplanet

This is because the vaccine is based solely on a specific variant of the spike protein while undergoing asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infections at a young age will give a broader immune response to more parts of the virus

Why is this not also true for people in their teens, 20s and 30s?

I saw an Israeli scientist saying something similar about more boosters ( so older people) - concern that it is boosting the specific targeting part of the immune system at the expense of the flexible part of the immune system that would allow your body to deal better with any future variants.

That didn't come out well - he meant your immune system not being able to react so well to future variants.

Surely we should have some reasonable data to test out whether people who've caught one strain are better protected than vaccinated people against a different strain?

I'm not sure about vaccinating Cullen tbh. If it really did stop them catching it, or make it very unlikely I'd say it was well worth it to stop the educational and life disruption and to protect others. But it looks increasingly as if it doesn't do that very well and not for very long. Vaccinating to protect against severe illness isn't necessary for most children, and if there is a better more universal vaccine available down the line, you might see uptake for that one being lower if people have already vaccinated their kids and seen them go on to catch it anyway