The Covid case numbers are falling because we were told not to get a PCR anymore, right?

[Habbyhadno]

Are the cases really falling off a cliff because we've been told to lateral flow and not go for a PCR and people aren't reporting the result?
Personally this weekend and today have been the worse I've experienced for Covid numbers, we all have it and 80% of our friends and their kids have it (not caught from each other as I haven't seen them for months). The school emailed today to say that it has been the worst day for Covid absences since the start of the pandemic.
Is this the case nationwide or are we just in a hot spot this week?

@HelloMissus

@HelloMissus

Them - everyone I know has it. Also them - no one is testing (except everyone I know).

Them - you can only trust the ONS figures.
Also them - but not today.

I was thinking exactly this!

No they're falling as predicted because omicron spreads very rapidly and then recedes quickly too.

My 11 year old son is currently on a residential camp with his entire year group of a hundred kids. Many of them isolated or were ill in December. Now they're not.

If you know about cases, chances are those people are reporting it.

Also, those who are positive now - did you report it? If so, chances are other people have done too.

I didn’t report my positive LFT because i was symptomatic so I had already booked a PCR (which came back positive as expected). I expect other people have done similar, I’m not an especially unusual person.

@delilahbucket

Case numbers haven't mattered for a long time. It's ICU and deaths that is important, and both of those are falling. It's particularly striking when you look at difference in deaths within 28 days of a test and deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate.

Where did you find the latter information? Given the virulent nature of Omicron variant it would be logical to see an increase in incidental Covid positive deaths, it would be good to see facts supporting that hypothesis.

@HelloMissus

Them - everyone I know has it. Also them - no one is testing (except everyone I know).

Them - you can only trust the ONS figures.
Also them - but not today.

Lol, spot on.

The decrease in cases is supported by ONS and Zoe, neither of which are affected by testing behaviour.

London cases peaked first and started to drop away sharply a couple of weeks ago, before the change in testing regime, at a time where other regions were still rising fast.

It's quite possible that cases in your corner of the country are still rising, but on average across the UK they're rapidly decreasing - have a look at the map on a laptop and you can scroll backwards in time and see how the patterns move.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

I hope that reassured you OP. If you listen to all of that and still think that "of course numbers are going down because no one's testing" then this thread will no longer serve a purpose.

Why report a negative LFT? I don't understand that part. I've only had one positive and didn't report that either as I booked a PCR immediately so what was the point? Perhaps someone can explain.

@SellFridges

What makes you think someone who can be bothered to book and go for a PCR after an LFT (which they have registered in order to get the PCR) wouldn’t be bothered reporting a positive LFT?

I think the only meaningful change we will see is people isolating for less time as they may edit their own symptoms/LFT date. Most of those people will still take LFT’s before going out though so it shouldn’t impact spread

This.

At the moment the move from LFT to PCR (and it is still a PCR if you have one of the main 3 symptoms - PCRs have not gone completely) is because it is felt with Omicron being as widespread as it is if you get a positive LFT it is positive and not a false positive and therefore does not need confirmation.

If you have a negative LFT and a cough/temp you should still confirm it is negative with a PCR.

I got an email yesterday from the NHS to make it clear that if you get a positive LFT you should report it - once that is done track and trace will be in contact same as if it is PCR based.

As Sellfridges says if you were someone who wanted to get a PCR test after to ensure you were on the system why wouldnt you simply now upload the result? Anyone who doesnt was unlikely to get a PCR in the first place.

But yes it is going to be hot spots - different schools at different times. Different years within that school. Has been that way since the beginning.

People do not seem generally aware that the government has a number of data sources to estimate coronavirus prevalence. It's not just people self-seeking PCR or lateral flow tests.

As others have mentioned, there is the ONS data, which is a lagging indicator but which has stayed generally well correlated with PCR findings, and the ONS data is turning in line with PCR (with a lag).

Additionally, there is a large programme of wastewater monitoring. This gives a very good but general indicator of population-level infection patterns. It's used to determine broad regional infection levels and for variant monitoring.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-1-june-to-20-september-2021/emhp-wastewater-monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-in-england-1-june-to-20-september-2021

@PatriciaHolm

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1483062311971704833?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

FT stats expert on why he thinks the drop is real (overall, at UK level - there will be regional differences of course)

That's reassuring because I was convinced the fall in cases was because of failure to report LFT.

People's perceptions vary a lot.

In December London and SE had a huge wave while numbers were still very low where I live.
As always with covid it seems to roll around the country. The term "wave" is an accurate description.
In my area it has gone mad in the last couple of weeks. Everyone seems to have it.

@PatriciaHolm

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1483062311971704833?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

FT stats expert on why he thinks the drop is real (overall, at UK level - there will be regional differences of course)

I was about to post this too; JBM is great on stats and data.

As the number of positive cases has fallen faster than the number of tests done, does that mean the positivity rate has fallen which would also indicate the fall is real? Or is it more complicated than that?

@BearYoYo

Why report a negative LFT? I don't understand that part. I've only had one positive and didn't report that either as I booked a PCR immediately so what was the point? Perhaps someone can explain.

I have to report them for work. I wouldn’t bother otherwise

Before and over Christmas loads of people i know had it. Now i only know one person locally who has had it in last week.

That's reassuring because I was convinced the fall in cases was because of failure to report LFT.

I had initially assumed it must be that too. Didn't find out about the other sources showing drops til yesterday. Good news though.

@MrsJaxTellerPlease

Don't know anyone who has it at the moment. Knew a lot over Christmas.

My 6 year old grandson tested positive on Sunday with symptoms and over half his class are currently off school with confirmed covid. We are waiting to find out our fate as we spent most of Sunday with him and he was very infectious then.

Until recently almost no one I knew had had it, but recently there have been lots of our friends having confirmed cases.

My daughter has just phoned and said that despite the cases being reported on the class whatsapp group, 3 children were sent home yesterday with symptoms. What on earth were those parents thinking?

Depends on what “symptoms” means, I suppose.

It's only if you test positive on LFT and have no symptoms you are asked not to PCR.

Think a bigger issue is that numbers don't include those people who are Covid positive for a second time which I imagine will be a good number by now .

I'm suprised by the cases in my part of London, I thought we had peaked pre xmas. Most of my house has it currently & lots of cases in the dcs classes

I work with a team of 160 in total. For the last couple of months we have had two or three cases at any one time, though only one in the period in my department. This week for the first time there are none at all. I don't know anyone at all outside work who has had it, none of my friends have. I can only assume it is a much younger age group that have had the virus recently, don't know many of them.

Everyone I know has symptoms the day before the LFT picks it up

“ Think a bigger issue is that numbers don't include those people who are Covid positive for a second time which I imagine will be a good number by now ”

I thought those were included now

3 children were sent home yesterday with symptoms. What on earth were those parents thinking?

What time though?

I LFT'd mine in the morning, negative & no symptoms. Later in the day one said they felt sick, one then had a temp.