The Covid case numbers are falling because we were told not to get a PCR anymore, right?

[Habbyhadno]

Are the cases really falling off a cliff because we've been told to lateral flow and not go for a PCR and people aren't reporting the result?
Personally this weekend and today have been the worse I've experienced for Covid numbers, we all have it and 80% of our friends and their kids have it (not caught from each other as I haven't seen them for months). The school emailed today to say that it has been the worst day for Covid absences since the start of the pandemic.
Is this the case nationwide or are we just in a hot spot this week?

@BearYoYo

Why report a negative LFT? I don't understand that part. I've only had one positive and didn't report that either as I booked a PCR immediately so what was the point? Perhaps someone can explain.

Because we need to know the total number of tests taken to know the positivity rates. If 3000 people tested at home this morning and only the 500 who got a positive result reported it, it would be impossible to know how prevalent it really is. Especially now we are using LFTs more and not requiring so many PCRs to be taken.

I imagine it also helps the government know how much testing is being done in general. Otherwise you can get a box of 7 tests and no one knows how and when those were used, if at all. It's part of the t&c's on the website you order them from online that you'll report every result.

The virus naturally ebbs and flows. @HelloMissus was right with what she said. I didn't know anyone with the virus till July 2021. That didn't mean no one in my county was testing.
Around Christmas it felt like everyone had it. I was doing LFTs before meeting and never had a positive so continued to socialise with other people with the same results. Now everyone who I knew who had it is coming out of isolation the people I know with Covid is low again.

I seem to have totally missed the memo on this.

My 7 year old tested positive this week with LFT, I booked us all in for PCR. She was positive rest of house negative.

Then rest of house developed symptoms and tested positive on LFT. Have just been back to PCR centre and we have had our second PCR in few days (apart from 7 year old who already tested positive).
Shouldn't we have had PCRs?

Loads of people hit here over Xmas. Still rife round here too.

I've been back in work (school) and got hit yesterday. I've been nowhere else cos there's nothing to do this time of year. Triple jabbed too. Everyone else still neg, but my kids have only been back a week, so give it time. I feel really bad cos school has been on its knees re cover for weeks now. And I'm never, ever off work.

But you know, exams as usual.

Not full thread so apologies if already mentioned. If you have had covid previously, you don't get added in again to the numbers except in Wales. So all those getting it for the second time, and I know a few of those, their result doesn't count.

I'll try and find link where I read it.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59958071

Our local data peaked at new year. I had it myself over Christmas.
We happened to have a late return to school on 10th Jan so there was a natural buffer between new year and schools returning.
If you'd had Covid in December when cases were soaring it was probably Omicron and you'll be unlikely to catch it again in a hurry.

Exponential growth can not carry on indefinitely because the population is finite, and those with susceptible levels of immunity is finite again. It's not mathematically possible for all 67,108, 864 members of my household to have been infected since I was patient zero on Christmas day (Obviously if my household did have 67m people in it, self isolation would be tad tricky )

It's not mathematically possible for all 67,108, 864 members of my household to have been infected since I was patient zero on Christmas day

Presume it would have been possible back in March 2020? Are you taking immunity from previous infection into account? Studies showing that some people do seem to be naturally unlikely to ever catch it (my brother is a nurse and despite full on exposure multiple times has never had it and has been antibody tested twice to that effect). Really interesting. I wonder of the 67 million in your house, how many would have caught it if exposed simultaneously at the beginning!

I imagine it also helps the government know how much testing is being done in general. Otherwise you can get a box of 7 tests and no one knows how and when those were used, if at all. It's part of the t&c's on the website you order them from online that you'll report every result.

I've never bothered, I don't have time in the mornings. Is it easy to do, as in you scan a QR code and that's it or do you have to faff around putting in details?

No because

• ons work supports cases falling (abs not impacted by testing decisions)
• hospitalisations have stopped increasing abs beginning to show signs of falling
• the other country to have omicron first fell after big increases abs with no lockdown (South Africa) some guns parts of the us hit first also falling si why would a U.K. change in testing policy impact trends elsewhere
• because over a million are reporting tests a day (that isn’t not by most non mumsnet opinions on the definition of “no one”)

On the whole though changing in testing policy doesn’t hide trends in the data in cases, abs hasn’t historically but I do know it seems very important for some people that a reduction isn’t a reduction..but that seems a point of principal..cases cannot come down without a lockdown because then the calls for a lockdown pre Christmas were wrong rather than based on fact!

7 of my family have it just now, my kids class has a lot off with it and I have a fair amount of colleagues with it.

However when others were saying it was rife in their friend groups/towns etc I didn't know anyone with it, so I guess it's just dependant on where you are.

Its a ridiculous measurement tool anyway. The best way to measure it is hospitalisations and deaths. Given the availability and success of vaccines, there's really no need to manage the numbers of infections at the level we did before vaccines.

is Omicron the dominant strand everywhere in the UK ATM?

And we have not reported re infections since omicron began so why would that impact trend (up or down) unless suddenly a greater number of omicron cases are re infections than they were in December and there is no evidence that is the case?

So if 20 percent of cases were re-infections in December they would be missed and then if 20 percent of cases in January were re infections they would also be missed this would mean we don’t have the total number of cases right (but we always have underestimated that!) but if we always missed twenty percent of cases that wouldn’t impact trend ie cases are falling.

Cases here are falling rapidly (greater London) and thankfully hospitalisations are coming down too!

Hospitalisations are far more important than cases anyway.

The thing people need to get through their heads now is that cases don't matter.

If the deaths and numbers of people in hospital are manageable then we have to move forward from this now.

People need to be in work. Children need to stop having their education disrupted.

If you are too ill to go in, fine, but otherwise get on with it.

Why this obsession with case numbers? Did you research how many people each year contracted other viruses/colds/flu? I'm guessing not.

@HelloMissus

Them - everyone I know has it. Also them - no one is testing (except everyone I know).

Them - you can only trust the ONS figures.
Also them - but not today.

Ha pretty much

Given the availability and success of vaccines, there's really no need to manage the numbers of infections at the level we did before vaccines.

Exactly. Omicron is much milder too, and hospitals are managing. And they're managing despite normal winter pressures!

I was thinking this too. DH & 5 of his friends caught it & have just finished quarantine. No PCRs taken due to changed guidelines & there doesn't seem to be anything gathering up non PCR case for stats, unless he's missed something

So I agree

More and more countries are starting to view omicron as a virus comparable to flu or a cold. As long as hospitalisations and deaths are kept low, we should live our lives normally and not count every single (often mild of asymptomatic) case.

In my school we are having a gradually increasing number of kids off with it - 5 in one class of 17, one in my class of 16, about 11 off in the year below of about 100 kids. The staff are getting it too.

3 children were sent home yesterday with symptoms. What on earth were those parents thinking?

Hopefully we can soon continue to send our kids to school and go to work despite having (mild) symptoms!

And to answer the op, No - the ONS surveys are also showing a decline in cases!

More and more countries are starting to view omicron as a virus comparable to flu or a cold.

I agree with this & research our covid scientist friend mentioned recently leaves them hopeful this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic 🤞🤞🤞

is Omicron the dominant strand everywhere in the UK ATM?

I think so, as it's much more transmissible