The Covid case numbers are falling because we were told not to get a PCR anymore, right?

[Habbyhadno]

Are the cases really falling off a cliff because we've been told to lateral flow and not go for a PCR and people aren't reporting the result?
Personally this weekend and today have been the worse I've experienced for Covid numbers, we all have it and 80% of our friends and their kids have it (not caught from each other as I haven't seen them for months). The school emailed today to say that it has been the worst day for Covid absences since the start of the pandemic.
Is this the case nationwide or are we just in a hot spot this week?

ONS shows a similar drop so it's not just about reduced testing.

Anecdotally- in the last week
Of December I knew 14 people who tested positive. This week I know 1.

I agree op.
We have got loads of people off work at the moment and every day l hear of another friend that has tested positive.

Yes absolutely agree no pcr test= No cases. It's all part of learning to live with it.

I’ve never known as many people have it as I do now. So people either aren’t testing, or if they are they aren’t reporting.

Current data says number of cases are down 41% over the last 7 days whereas tests are only down 21% that shows a decrease to me. Hospital admissions are also starting to drop.

Certain areas of the country will always be slightly behind, and we still have a high number of new cases each day even though those new cases are reducing.

@GoodnightGrandma

I’ve never known as many people have it as I do now. So people either aren’t testing, or if they are they aren’t reporting.

Numbers are still higher than they have been at any point since mass testing began... even with the drop, so I'm not sure your conclusion follows.

They need to stop reporting case numbers, it isn't telling us anything. Hospital numbers are much more relevant.

I really hope cases are dropping. Our hospital is rammed. So many people had it over Christmas and new year and the run up too so while I don’t entirely believe the figures are as low I do think k we’ve probably reached the peak.

@QueenOfHiraeth

I think it's been going down here since Christmas You should be reporting lateral flow tests on Gov.uk so case figures would still be recorded. Unfortunately it seems that many of the public are happy to take the government funded tests but can't be arsed to report the results

Government funded test? Pretty sure it's us the tax payer that foots the bill.

I dont understanding the "no one is testing because we can't get tests" logic.

Obviously people are testing as they are using all the tests!

I don't know anyone that has it. None at my kids schools.

Surely the important numbers are hospitalisations and deaths? People in hospital seem to be steadily dropping, and deaths have come down again, so I'm not sure actual case numbers matter too much any more.

Same here. Primary school hotspot. I think it’s now getting to the remaining 1/3rd of kids who managed to dodge it in December. We’re testing and reporting, of course.
And people are not getting booster (or teens their second dose) because they need to wait their X weeks after covid, with the ratio of infections we had over Xmas it means they’re all postponing to late feb

@MrsJaxTellerPlease

Don't know anyone who has it at the moment. Knew a lot over Christmas.

May be you can see why we were always on top numbers with Covid. Most other countries did not test as much. Now with Omicron being very mild for most is a good time to move on from Covid PCRs and other bits. Hopefully we are becoming endemic like WHO said.

Initially I assumed this but if that were the case the ONS shouldn't show the fall that they do.

@Bakewelltart987

Yes absolutely agree no pcr test= No cases. It's all part of learning to live with it.

This

I think it depends on where you live, but the daily Covid stats do seem to be supported by the Zoe app (where millions report their daily symptoms, or lack of them) and the ONS study that is always a week or two out of date (and visits people with PCR tests and antibody tests - I think they are currently reporting for the week up to 7 January).

We are in an area badly affected by the "false negative" PCR tests in September/October. DD's secondary seems fine now and I can only think of one person in the past week with Covid (compared to quite a few families over the Christmas holidays).

The ONS sends pcr kits at home (I’ve done a couple for them)

@MrsJaxTellerPlease

Don't know anyone who has it at the moment. Knew a lot over Christmas.

That would be because people were testing regularly over Christmas as they were meeting with larger groups of people .. whereas now they're not.

Testing less = fewer cases. On paper at least.

In reality of course it's still rife. Probably just as rife as it was, but the cases aren't getting reported - it'll be the asymptomatic cases that are going unnoticed.

Undoubtedly, this has been the most devastating pandemic, but I believe the worst is over. We now need to start looking at Covid in the same way we accept ‘flu. We have never had tests/isolation for it, but just used common sense to look after ourselves, and keep away from other people.

Most people, if they caught ‘flu, would have felt very unwell for a week or so, and gradually recovered. Some would have ended up in hospital, especially if they were very young, elderly or had underlying health conditions, and lots of those would sadly die.

This is how it has always been. A different strain of ‘flu presents itself each winter season, (ie. a mutation) and the ‘flu vaccine is tweaked to hopefully mitigate its’ effects, and help protect the vulnerable.

I believe this is how Covid will be seen and handled. It’s another Coronavirus that’s here to stay.

We still have lots of cases in the community. I think it's the lack of LFT that has got cases down. Omicron will have run its course within 4-6 weeks.

@MrsJaxTellerPlease

Don't know anyone who has it at the moment. Knew a lot over Christmas.

Funny isn't it,as it seems everyone I know has it or is getting over it now?

Case numbers haven't mattered for a long time. It's ICU and deaths that is important, and both of those are falling. It's particularly striking when you look at difference in deaths within 28 days of a test and deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate.

Them - everyone I know has it.
Also them - no one is testing (except everyone I know).

Them - you can only trust the ONS figures.
Also them - but not today.

Daily tests reported are published here coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

The testing numbers peaked over Christmas and NY, as you'd expect, but over a million tests are being conducted daily and reported, and cases are dropping faster than the drop in tests.

OP, you can use the map at the bottom of the main page to see the rates in your area (with a bit of a lag), down to areas of a few streets. I think it can move as you describe - it rips through a particular network even though not everyone is seeing everyone - you may be "related" through school, activities, local groups etc.