Get rid of all restrictions

[AnEpisodeOfEastenders]

I think it's time for all restrictions to be removed. There has been plenty of time for people to be vaccinated / boosted that want to, those that can't or don't should take their own precautions.

If we test positive then we shouldn't need to isolate, shouldn't need to declare it and should just treat it as a normal cough / cold / illness. If you feel up to going to work, out to the pub, seeing friends or family then do so. Everyone I know who have had it say they feel fine.

Life has been disrupted for far too long, the costs associated are astronomical and will be a crippling debt for generations to come.

As most people could have predicted, Scotlands cases are flying up in the same manner they did in England

None of the restrictions are enough to have any positive benefit in stopping the spread of Omicron, they only cause additional harms so are just a complete waste of time, money and mental stress

London seems to be surprise surprise following SA and starting to see cases fall and the growth in the rest of England is slowing. In 2-3 weeks cases will be plummeting and shortly after the pressure will ease on hospitals. Again as expected severity of Omicron is far less than Delta - less hospitalisations, shorter stays, less ventilation and Intensive case and less deaths. I'm genuinely baffled how anyone thought this wouldn't happen.

Chris Whitty et al couldn't have called Omicron more wrong - the reward for incompetence being a knighthood!!

I hope Sturgoen / Drakeford are ready for the flack they will get from their respective nations when they are still restricted and England are at the pub, football, nightclubs etc.

The final straw will be of plan B is eased in England at the end of Jan!

@alectrevelyan006

Where is you source that cases in london are dropping and does this account for lack of data over bank holidays?

I find it odd that people have picked up on Chris Whitty's comment about Omnicron being ' bad' when they were still looking at the early data and figures.
Compare this to Boris Johnson saying in March 2020 ' 12 weeks and it'll be over ' or hinting that would be the case.
' it was a work meeting , not a party '
' I support Dominic Cummings for breaking the rules ' etc etc etc
A liar who people back up constantly compared to leading scientist who was being cautious and concerned for the NHS ( and ultimately people in general )
Yet CW is seen as the duplicitous one.

@Gingerbreadrules I found this interesting
www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201016/long-covid-may-be-four-syndromes

@AlecTrevelyan006

As most people could have predicted, Scotlands cases are flying up in the same manner they did in England

None of the restrictions are enough to have any positive benefit in stopping the spread of Omicron, they only cause additional harms so are just a complete waste of time, money and mental stress

London seems to be surprise surprise following SA and starting to see cases fall and the growth in the rest of England is slowing. In 2-3 weeks cases will be plummeting and shortly after the pressure will ease on hospitals. Again as expected severity of Omicron is far less than Delta - less hospitalisations, shorter stays, less ventilation and Intensive case and less deaths. I'm genuinely baffled how anyone thought this wouldn't happen.

Chris Whitty et al couldn't have called Omicron more wrong - the reward for incompetence being a knighthood!!

I hope Sturgoen / Drakeford are ready for the flack they will get from their respective nations when they are still restricted and England are at the pub, football, nightclubs etc.

The final straw will be of plan B is eased in England at the end of Jan!

If you do not understand the data, please stop posting this poor attempt at analysis.

1. Reporting of positives is always affected by bank holidays. This is why you use 7 day averages.

1. Positives will get much worse in England once schools open up.

I appreciate that over xmas and new year there is some muddying of the data that will a little while to even out. Nonetheless, I remain confident that the UK will see a similar pattern to that which has occurred in South Africa. We shall see.

To summarise 04/01/22:

1. First trigger point is about to be breached in the UK within the next few days. Infections, once reinfections have been included, will go over 250k/day. This is about a week ahead of schedule which means the current wave size is actually even higher than expected and the reported rates (even while being adjusted for the positivity rate) are under-shooting the true numbers (this is probably due to having reached the saturation point in the UK in as far as being able to distribute & process tests (LFTs and PCRs)).

1. 8 NHS trusts (London and North/South) have now declared critical incidents. This is serious and they will keep increasing over the next two weeks. These critical incident problems are going to get much worse and I am sure the army will have to be called in to help on that front (ambulances specially). That is likely to be a political decision given Boris' proclivities for dithering.

1. Hospitalisations are beginning to rise faster now, which will now be ramping up over the next few weeks at +1,000/day on average.

1. Schools will be hit next. The number of infected is now too large and geographically dispersed (London and outside London). The number of staff out will begin to reach critical levels within the next two weeks as omicron replicates in the largely unvavaccinated child & young adult population in schools, feeding back out via teachers/parents/carers.

1. NHS (that goes for adults & children) will not be able to cope with the size of the wave that has been building. The numbers quite simply do not add up. Even if you cancel all non-covid care in the most affected areas, the number of infected people being hospitalised plus the critical staff absences will cause several trusts to essentially collapse. This means people waiting 12+ hrs for ER care (or more). People who need any kind of non-covid critical care will not be able to access the services in time.

I am sorry but Boris gambled with the fate of the country for his own benefit, and it looks like he is going to lose. Badly.

Update 07.01.22

30+ Trusts have now declared critical incidents

Staffordshire and Northamptonshire have now declared region wide emergencies.

There is not enough medical infrastructure around the Midlands/North to accommodate the veritable tsunami of infected patients that are now landing one by one in the NHS, which is further being exacerbated by the lack of NHS folks (who are also infected and need to self-isolate).

Everything is now pointing to Whitty declaring a level 5 England-wide Pandemic alert in the next 2 weeks, as this is the only real way to bring in the army to help out (beyond just helping with the ambulances).

@BambinaJAS

Update 07.01.22

30+ Trusts have now declared critical incidents

Staffordshire and Northamptonshire have now declared region wide emergencies.

There is not enough medical infrastructure around the Midlands/North to accommodate the veritable tsunami of infected patients that are now landing one by one in the NHS, which is further being exacerbated by the lack of NHS folks (who are also infected and need to self-isolate).

Everything is now pointing to Whitty declaring a level 5 England-wide Pandemic alert in the next 2 weeks, as this is the only real way to bring in the army to help out (beyond just helping with the ambulances).

What happens in the case of level 5 pandemic alert? More restrictions?

I feel so bloody horrible sending the DC's into school right now, it seems like it is inevitable they will be infected .

Here are the levels:

Everything is now pointing to Whitty declaring a level 5 England-wide Pandemic alert in the next 2 weeks, as this is the only real way to bring in the army to help out (beyond just helping with the ambulances)

Actuallymit isnt. Any government department can request the help of the military at any time, under MAC-A (or MAC-P, or whatever it's called these days) and that is a well trodden path. The requesting department has to identify the need and invite the military to show how it can need that need. Then there is inter-departmental negotiating about the final plan and who bears the additional costs (normally the requesting department). When they have a deal, respective ministers or SoSes sign off on it and it happens.

[quote Covidworries]@alectrevelyan006

Where is you source that cases in london are dropping and does this account for lack of data over bank holidays?[/quote]
data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

At time of linking, the number of cases has dropped a bit (seven day average) but the data is still clearly lumpy (big variations) so although there may be grounds for optimism, I think they want to see a sustained reduction as the data becomes less lumpy. And of course the back-to-school factor won't start to show for several more days. So it's still finger crossed time.

Hospital admissions still rising, and I think that's the single most important indicator - if hospitals are full, they will not be able to withstand a potential 'back to school rise'

Over 18,000 people in hospital. It keeps rising.

I can't see how this is at all sustainable?

Last time 40,000 seemed to be the number where it could all collapse. But more people were being discharged from hospital then into social care. Now they are saying 10% of all beds are occupied by someone waiting for a care home or carer so they can be discharged.

@mpsw

Everything is now pointing to Whitty declaring a level 5 England-wide Pandemic alert in the next 2 weeks, as this is the only real way to bring in the army to help out (beyond just helping with the ambulances)

Actuallymit isnt. Any government department can request the help of the military at any time, under MAC-A (or MAC-P, or whatever it's called these days) and that is a well trodden path. The requesting department has to identify the need and invite the military to show how it can need that need. Then there is inter-departmental negotiating about the final plan and who bears the additional costs (normally the requesting department). When they have a deal, respective ministers or SoSes sign off on it and it happens.

Key word there is "Ministers".

They will not sign off anything until Whitty gives them official cover by declaring a level 5 alert.

@MumbleCrumbs

I can't see how this is at all sustainable?

It isn't.

Drakeford is correct in his view of Boris & English Govt.

The NHS in England is going to get over-whelmed.

They will not sign off anything until Whitty gives them official cover by declaring a level 5 alert

They have already signed off on several taskings for the military, and there's no reason for them to decide not to use the system any more (and indeed many incentives to continue to do so - patching is not the long term solution for NHS but it's what's needed right now)

I'm not sure what elevating the level to 5 will do if they are already using the army? It's too late for restrictions to have much of an effect, surely.

@MumbleCrumbs

I'm not sure what elevating the level to 5 will do if they are already using the army? It's too late for restrictions to have much of an effect, surely.

The army also has medical professionals (Drs, Nurses, and Corpsmen) located inside the UK in various military bases. I don't know the exact % located outside the UK (but likely less than 50%).

They can fully mobilise them to help out under a level 5 alert (specially in geographical areas in England that are under heavy stress).

Right now, they have mostly been helping out with the vaccinations (Boosters) and ambulances.

What do you mean by 'fully mobilise' and how does that differ from the existing MAC-P provisions?

@mpsw

What do you mean by 'fully mobilise' and how does that differ from the existing MAC-P provisions?

Under Pandemic Management plans they can be directly sent to provide cover in the areas that are under stress.

This is complicated because it will obviouly impact military readiness (for whatever conflicts we are currently in), and obviously this will cost extra £££.

That is normal MAC-P - what is happening now, and can continue to happen irrespective of Alert level and does not require 'full mobilisation' (whatever that is)

Considering the current Skynews article talks about a guy calling an ambulance for a coccyx really!!!!!! Along with bays being closed because someone has tested positive is it not time for them to admit COVID will be hospital acquired and run the NHS at full capacity. You could keep the district generals COVID secure for the vulnerable then get on with it for the rest of us.

I would rather have not paid for private surgery and risked catching COVID on the NHS vs in a bar.

It feels like the NHS is still trying to control the epidemic whilst the government is letting it runs its course.

We are running the hospitals virtually at full capacity. Why the hell do you think the ambulances are all queueing outside the hospitals. It’s not because we’ve got shit loads of spare beds to admit the patients already in ED to and we’re just keeping them for the lolz.

And you can’t keep anything covid secure when the government is letting the pandemic run wild.

And that’s before you even get onto the risk of Covid + general anaesthetic. You might be quite gung ho. I’m not sure the rest of the population is necessarily quite ready to have the ‘yes, you’ll probably catch covid while here and if you do your chances of dying during your op or in the period after it are higher,’ ’ conversation.