No new measures in England before New Year

[Jourdain11]

Has just been announced by the Health Secretary and reported across BBC etc.

The data is not available for the last 3 days. Even today's data says it is only partial.

Well seeing as vaccinating the world is unlikely to happen in the next few weeks or probably months I guess we've got time to tweak the vaccines if necessary, haven't we?

@treeflowercat

The Government (despite having made various mistakes over the course of the pandemic) made the right call in July to open up, despite doom-mongers predicting a catastrophe. I hope they're going to be proved right again.... I have a feeling they will be, perhaps after a fraught for half of Jan, with Covid starting to fade in to the distance come February as cases plummet.

Average 35,000 cases daily since August, rest of Europe much lower til Dec, 700-1000 daily hospital admissions, 22,000 further deaths, more long covid/disability that could be many years/lifelong for some. Yeah, splendid outcome. Govt could have kept masks and providing ventilation and filtration in school at least.

*re long covid in children

77,000 children, aged 2-16, now living with Long CoVid in the UK.

This has increased by +8,000 from last month. (Dec 21)

2-11 : 23,000
12-16: 54,000

Of which 14,000 have suffered for more than a year.

Adults with LC

1.2 million in the UK have LongCovid. (ONS)

“An estimated 1.2 million people living in private households in the UK (1.9% of the population) were experiencing self-reported long COVID (symptoms persisting for more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were not explained by something else) as of 31 October 2021; this is consistent with the 1.2 million (1.9%) seen as of 2 October 2021.”

• 862,000 for at least 12 weeks
• 439,000 for at least a year

• 775,000 said Long Covid affected their daily activities
• 232,000 said it limited their daily activities “a lot”

For those saying we have to live with it, I am interested what this means.

Do they mean during a wave no mitigations such as masks indoors, government support for ventilation and filtration in public buildings and most importantly in schools?

No isolation if positive even if govt would finally provide support for those who have to isolate?

No testing?

Or no lockdowns ever but still some mitigations?

@Jourdain11

I can see why people find it questionable though. Take Colin Powell, who had multiple myeloma and was stated to have died from "complications of Covid-19". If he'd died with complications of the common cold, flu, etc. it would in the past have still been stated that he "died after a long illness".

No. For decades, those who died of a secondary illness after HIV and its immunosuppressive factors have been described as having died from flu/pneumonia caused by HIV/AIDS.

There can be deaths by pneumonia caused by Covid.

There can also be deaths by Covid caused by Covid because you are immuncomprised as with Mr Powell because of his blood cancer.

Basically death causes can have several factors.

The Covid killed him because his immune system couldn’t fight back due to blood cancer. He didn’t die from the cancer.

There are hundreds of thousands in the same position in the U.K. right now. Would you shrug off then dying too? They are no longer shielded. They have family and workmate, children and carers that makes it impossible for most to shield themselves.

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1475567604504973318[/quote]
Balloux is a geneticist not a virologist it epidemiologist who had repeatedly been proved wrong in every wave.

And yet you share him in every wave.

I hope he’s right!!

I really do.

But he’s unreliable.

@Lifeisnteasy

God this is depressing.

I remember when the vaccines were on the horizon and the general feeling was that vaccines would make it much less transmissible.

All it took was one variant, and transmissibility is back to square one. There is no ultimate vaccine which will stop covid dead in its tracks. They’re going to keep rolling out boosters for new variants, but of course by the time this happens the new variant is usually way ahead. The only way this will ‘end’ is if covid mutates into something like a common cold… and even then, what’s to stop it from mutating again? This will take years. I’ve heard scientists guess at the pandemic being ‘over’ after around 6 years.

Nope. 6 years is a huge amount of time, who knows where we will all be as individuals by then. We’re not ants, we don’t need to lay our lives down for a collective good. We need to make our own decisions, own them and stop expecting others to sacrifice their quality of life for ‘the public’.

6 years?! I already feel gutted that over two years of my life, and my children’s lives have been blighted by Covid but 6 years? No way!!

@Fairylights25

There is no way on Gods earth the government will allow schools to close after pressing ahead with NY. There would be riots and parents would never forgive them, and when considering just how many millions would be affected, it is unthinkable and they ruled out any school closures ever again some time ago.

So those worrying about schools being closed, please don't. No government in their right mind would dare, and the impact on the economy and the NHS and vital services would be unthinkable as parents could not work.

If they close secondary schools (or some years) for pupils over 12, it would not legally affect parents working, as teenagers could legally be asked to do at least some independent learning from home.

It is not impossible that some classes will be asked to do independent learning.

@Zotter

For those saying we have to live with it, I am interested what this means.

Do they mean during a wave no mitigations such as masks indoors, government support for ventilation and filtration in public buildings and most importantly in schools?

No isolation if positive even if govt would finally provide support for those who have to isolate?

No testing?

Or no lockdowns ever but still some mitigations?

No testing, masks or any other restrictions. This will happen at some point, even though covid is here to stay. There have been leaks that testing could be dialled down to just testing in hospitals from spring next year, so might be sooner rather than later.

Good. I've always been much more worried about the restrictions/knock-on effects than actual Covid itself.

Purely political decision. Johnson couldn’t cope with another (even larger) rebellion in the Commons.

No testing, masks or any other restrictions. This will happen at some point, even though covid is here to stay. There have been leaks that testing could be dialled down to just testing in hospitals from spring next year, so might be sooner rather than later.
This is one of the concerns with Johnson/Sunak - they've pre-decided when they want to do x/y/z - they're not responding to the changing situation at all. Covid will dictate when the tests are not needed, it isn't a pre-planned photo opp in a campaign timetable.

agree, it is a political decision

i am worried about the decision, look all around us at the restrictions france and germany, let alone scotland, wales and n.ireland.
nevertheless if dd is still at home for new year's eve, she wants to go to a pub with me!
and i guess I will go, and hang the consequences

Nobody will know if it's the right decision for a while yet. In the meantime all we can do (in England ) is to follow the guidelines and just do what is right for yourself and what your comfortable with

Oh it's definitely a political decision, in that Johnson couldn't currently get away with introducing more restrictions even if he wanted to. However it's also the case that there doesn't appear to be any scientific evidence weighing up the harms of restrictions against the benefits. SAGE aren't doing it. I do think the PM ought to have access to that kind of information too, even if he is a fucking idiot who through his own stupidity has got himself into a position where his options are limited.

Correct decision imo. Only problem is the self inflicted problem of staff shortages that isolation is causing because of mild Omicron cold symptoms (in the majority). Need to start looking at scrapping it.

@JanglyBeads

The government have said many times recently that they make the decisions, not the scientists

And so they should. Scientists are not economists and these scientists they have on board always go for the worst scenario and have been proved wrong many times.

totally true

@ElftonWednesday

Good. I've always been much more worried about the restrictions/knock-on effects than actual Covid itself.

yes absolutely the trouble is people are blind to this we also need a change in terms of Whitty has to step down or be forced to step down.

i am worried about the decision, look all around us at the restrictions france and germany, let alone scotland, wales and n.ireland.

I suspect this will eventually be seen to have been the 'cause' of a lot of the restrictive measures.

The idealistic scenario is that each devolved administration or country has all the same data, is thorough analysing independently, and making balanced, well-judged, decisions.

In practice, I suspect a lot of leaders take their biggest lead from their peers.

Peer group pressure will perhaps turn out not to just be a playground thing.

I would not even be surprised to find that bullying was a thing, and I bet Sweden got a good deal of it.

@puppeteer

i am worried about the decision, look all around us at the restrictions france and germany, let alone scotland, wales and n.ireland.

I suspect this will eventually be seen to have been the 'cause' of a lot of the restrictive measures.

The idealistic scenario is that each devolved administration or country has all the same data, is thorough analysing independently, and making balanced, well-judged, decisions.

In practice, I suspect a lot of leaders take their biggest lead from their peers.

Peer group pressure will perhaps turn out not to just be a playground thing.

I would not even be surprised to find that bullying was a thing, and I bet Sweden got a good deal of it.

I think the bullying are the Tory backbenchers. The tory govt are putting them first before your health.

It's hardly bullying to refuse to support a leader you don't agree with. I understand wanting restrictions but there's no moral obligation for MPs to take the same view as their leader on policies that for obvious reasons the public never got a chance to vote on.

Absolute madness. After all the Christmas get-togethers which will have spiked the numbers, we need to be super cautious, not no-holds-barred parties.

@AlwaysLatte

Absolute madness. After all the Christmas get-togethers which will have spiked the numbers, we need to be super cautious, not no-holds-barred parties.

What super cautious incase we get a cold. I have one right now have had it for coming up a month it's finally moving out it's not the end of the world have had a great Christmas regardless. I'm working new year or we would be heading out so got our party on Thursday.

If we we're vulnerable yes we would be staying home and we won't be mixing with the elderly again until the peak has well passed or they get it anyway. Would rather do that then stay home to bring the peak forward a few weeks

@rrhuth

No testing, masks or any other restrictions. This will happen at some point, even though covid is here to stay. There have been leaks that testing could be dialled down to just testing in hospitals from spring next year, so might be sooner rather than later. This is one of the concerns with Johnson/Sunak - they've pre-decided when they want to do x/y/z - they're not responding to the changing situation at all. Covid will dictate when the tests are not needed, it isn't a pre-planned photo opp in a campaign timetable.

I disagree. It’s been a ‘changing situation’ for 2 years, and I think a line in the sand needs to be drawn. How many years do you think we should live under restrictions for, given it has a 99% survival rate, the majority of the population has been vaccinated & we have been through 3 lockdowns? Uncertainty just isn’t an option long term - it’s awful for businesses and for people’s lives. You seem incredibly single-track minded that covid is the only thing that matters and we should all happily give up our freedoms and lives for an indefinite number of years to control it.