Plan C any idea when this will happen?

[OriginalM]

The rumours of plan c must mean it's coming but any ideas when you think it will happen? This week or next?
Will Boris get someone else to announce it if he is off on paternity leave?

Lockdown is going to lead to mass unemployment in some sectors, specifically hospitality and store-based retail. Even with some kind of financial support, I’d expect of a lot places to just throw in the towel. What’s the point in limping through from one lockdown to another?

Re : slack in the system in healthcare. Winter is always rubbish. But its been winter since September this year, and summer was far less pressured than usual. Noone in health care has had proper break and the staff are on their knees. Staff absence is running at 8% ish, in my organisation we have around 5% of our general medical and surgical beds closed due to outbreaks on the wards (covid, c diff, norovirus, flu) . Isolating the various types of infected patients is logistical nightmare. Bed occupancy in the NHS is running at 93.4% as of 5th December. 85% is considered manageable. Covid numbers are not our biggest problem, although there is a slow and steady creep in admissions in my trust. We are still managing with 'just' three covid wards. However, if you have a stroke, an aneurysm, pneumonia, a fractured neck of femur or pretty much anything else this weekend, we are going to struggle to place you in an appropriate bed.

This week we have cancelled elective surgery including cancer ops due to lack of ICCU beds. Theatre staffing is running higher than the trust average so we are cancelling planned surgery as we cant staff the lists, or get patients pre-assessed.

The medical admissions and delayed discharges mean there is an inevitable pressure on the emergency department as we cant get any flow. Therefore your nanna and your child will wait longer to be seen in A&E.

When we talk about the NHS being overwhelmed it is important to look at the big picture. If your bath is already full, it doesn't take much more 'filling' before it runs over.

FWIW I absolutely would not support another lockdown, but if the modelling suggests we need to act to implement further measures I would rather see this sooner, as we have seen twice now, waiting too long has much bigger consequences in the long term.

Umbongoumbongo999 Described what I was trying to say. Yes winter pressures happen every year but normally January/feb is worse. The system is stretched and it won’t take a lot for things to go wrong. No-one wants lockdown but for those saying just crack on, what do you expect the government to do if things become bad? There aren’t really any answers that are good. Austria’s mandatory vaccination isn’t proving popular, vaccine passports seem controversial, denying care would be morally abhorrent etc.

corsica are you seriously CEV? Because unless you are, it is totally unreasonable. Omicron will be a mild illness and an inconvenience at best.

@Fairylights25

corsica are you seriously CEV? Because unless you are, it is totally unreasonable. Omicron will be a mild illness and an inconvenience at best.

Must be so lovely to have a crystal ball @Fairylights25

There is nothing coming out of SA to suggest otherwise. You are being hysterical to insist others wear masks outside.

@CorsicaDreaming why thank you

I don't disagree, but are those studies on correct mask use, or like many people are doing and grabbing one from the car/pocket/handbag and shoving it on in the shop doorway, then back in the pocket for however long?

@Fairylights25 - I've noticed how much you do love making up what you would like the other posters to be saying so that you can have a rant.

I was saying that in very specific circumstances when I was standing next to somebody and having a lface-to-face conversation, who subsequently said that husband has Covid (query Omicron) , I just wish we had both been wearing masks. In that particular set of circumstances.

That is a very far cry from what you are pretending I have said. I would really love to talk to you in real life as I do wonder whether you would be fine, or as bullish and rude as you are in posts!

@Summersdreaming - isn't it basically just about the physical barrier with masks though (unless you're going full PPE)? So even if you are keeping it in your pocket and sticking it on and then put it back in your pocket it's still a physical barrier to prevent the breath laden with virus getting out as much to keep the level of viral load lower.

If you keep it in a pocket and don't wash it, it's probably not doing you any good as it will probably build up mould spores and other stuff, but it probably is fairly effective as a public health barrier if you were to unknowingly have Covid and were out and about.

the scientists dont know yet,
south africa has a younger population.

@Fairylights25

It makes no difference to Betty, none at all. If Betty is extremely vulnerable or very old she should be having shopping deliveries, taking walks outside and meeting up for outside coffees with friends and heaters.

Betty most likely has multiple exposures already.Her physio for her knee (that was at the office party the night before) her dentist (with primary age children) Her hip replacement in the local hospital and her incessant desire to continue shopping 'in person' on packed weekend days in overcrowded supermarkets when she doesn't need to.

I disagree. Me distancing from Betty and wearing a mask will make a small difference to her catching it from ME if I have it

I think there are enough people in the country frothing for a lockdown so they should shut themselves away, help with keeping numbers down hey, and everyone else can live their lives.

Me distancing from Betty and wearing a mask will make a small difference to her catching it from ME if I have it

Hmm... "If I have it". That's the crux of it, isn't?
Lockdowns and masks are all about treating everybody like a potential asymptomatic vector. But that's a terribly heavy-handed, "sledgehammer to kill a fly" approach.
It made sense in early 2020 when testing capacity was non-existent. It doesn't make sense now, when there's PCR and LFT aplenty. Sure, the tests will miss a few cases. But they still catch many. Probably many more, in fact, than a flimsy ill-adjusted mask will catch germs.

I hate scrubbing up my nose with a cotton bud, but regularly doing so (and making the result enforceable, e.g. through a test-focused COVID pass, instead of focusing on vaccination) might well be the best way out of the current crisis.
Less invasive tests (e.g. saliva-based rapid tests? Or even breathalyser-style tests?) would be a true game changer. Shame they don't exist (yet?)

Masks

www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/expert-shows-efficacy-of-double-masks-in-cold-weather-vd5cf1c9f

@RobotValkyrie - there are now saliva-based tests. One of my friends works in medical research labs in a London University, and they are using saliva based testing for staff.

I'm not sure why it isn't rolled out nationwide, possibly expense, possibly it is too technical or saliva is an unstable carrier of testing so can't be done by the general public? I don't know. But I hope that eventually we will have more saliva-based tests widespread if those obstacles are overcome.

I'm just so glad can now do it just on nose and not tonsils though!

Saliva tests have been possible for a long while, I had one over a year ago through work, but you do have to produce quite a lot of saliva, it takes about 10 minutes of horrible coughing and spitting, so it's not a no-fuss solution to covid testing at least in the form I did it.

evil The point is if Betty has had her three vaccines and a flu shot, and she is not incredibly vulnerable then you standing a few inches further away and being muzzled is going to make zero difference to her. The most likely way she will catch the virus will be the family Christmas she is planning in a small sitting room with the windows sealed shut for hours on end with plenty of hugs and Christmas kisses.

If Betty is highly vulnerable she might wish to revisit her choices about mixing with others until we have established what risks are present with the new variant. It is up to Betty to make the right decisions for herself depending on her own particular health issues, and whether she wants to go out or not, for all you know Betty could be planning a round the world cruise in three weeks from now and couldn't give a damn about covid figuring she will make the most of her time left on the planet.

One would imagine anyone seriously concerned for their health and/or the virus including our lovely Betty will not be going to the supermarket any longer, and will be choosing deliveries instead, avoiding crowded Christmas events and shopping etc, and will be moderating their life styles according to their own risk factors evil we should not be treating people like children, Betty can manage herself perfectly well, after she knows her own health problems if she has any, and she knows the risks because she is a fully grown woman.

Agreed @bellamountain the way some people have fetishised restrictions isn't bloody normal.

The more this carries on, the more I realise it’s not about the virus anymore. So many things just don’t make logical sense. It’s quite depressing.

@TheScenicWay

The more this carries on, the more I realise it’s not about the virus anymore. So many things just don’t make logical sense. It’s quite depressing.

What doesn't make sense?

@Fairylights25

It makes no difference to Betty, none at all. If Betty is extremely vulnerable or very old she should be having shopping deliveries, taking walks outside and meeting up for outside coffees with friends and heaters.

Betty most likely has multiple exposures already.Her physio for her knee (that was at the office party the night before) her dentist (with primary age children) Her hip replacement in the local hospital and her incessant desire to continue shopping 'in person' on packed weekend days in overcrowded supermarkets when she doesn't need to.

Perhaps Betty doesn't have the internet and so can't have shopping delivered. Perhaps she can't afford to have outdoor heaters going in her garden. Perhaps going to the supermarket is her only social contact (and even if she went in quieter times there would still be quite a few people in there)

Her physio and dentist would most likely be masked. And they might very well not have asymptomatic covid, but the person behind them in the supermarket queue might, and if they were able to wear a mask and did wear a mask Betty's risk would be reduced.

I think we’re in danger of not being able to enforce lower level restrictions because infections have spiralled beyond control. I’m at a loss as to why school children can still attend school whilst waiting for contact PCR results for instance and there is still the option to reintroduce household isolations for those who live with an identified case.

The problem with waiting until the point hospitalisations start rising is it’s indicative of further cases already taking root. That’s when choices about other mitigations start reducing.

The problem with the overflowing bath argument is that in the past we’d have let it overflow on to the floor. We’d have put tents out in the car parks. And waited to see what happens.

Although a bit of this is happening (waits in, or for, ambulances), we’ve not really tried to approach it as a normal bad flu season.

Scientists warn, and the politicians are again concerned. But the public is tired and has wised up to being told that x/y/z measure will fix things, and then we’ll be back to normal. Too many cries of wolves.

If scientists are right this time, it might be that we need actually see things start to fail in a big way to gain back the initiative.

That will be framed by some as negligence. But the other way to see it that we have developed an increased tolerance and understanding of the risk. And that’s not a bad thing.

"The problem with the overflowing bath argument is that in the past we’d have let it overflow on to the floor. We’d have put tents out in the car parks. And waited to see what happens. "

Really?

When was this? I just have missed the last global pandemic that was managed in this way.

Saying nonsense like this doesn't make it true.

My guess is that the gov would reach for social restrictions before closing sectors as the economic impact is smaller. I wouldn’t be surprised if RO6/2HH returns on 18 December ahead of Christmas.

As others have said, when cases are doubling every 3 days you get in trouble pretty fast.

Say we have 10,000 omicron cases on day 1 and we decide that that is okay because we had 60,000 before so we will leave it a week.

Doubling every 3 days, in 7 days time that is 50,000 cases. So that looks scary so we lock down, but that is the cases we’ve identified but other infections have happened and not been tested yet and people will continue to infect their households. So it keeps growing at the same rate for 5 days or so (probably longer) that would take us to 160,000 cases.

The NHS is very full so they reduce staffing ratios but ultimately they don’t have enough beds because we don’t have enough staff to cope with that. So the ambulances can’t drop off patients so they queue up outside. People having heart attacks or in car crashes don’t get ambulances turning up for hours because the ambulances are stuck looking after patients outside the hospital. Current ambulance waiting time for a heart attack is about 45 minutes or 1hr20 in the south west!