More stringent measures next week?

[AchillesLastStand]

From the Guardian just now:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

[quote FestiveMelts]@nordica but we don't know what the hospitalized percentage is (or do we?). If it IS much lower than delta, then in theory the R number could be higher and still be very manageable. [/quote]
We don't know, which is why if you look closely at the graphic it gives alternative scenarios for what would happen if it's better, worse, or the same as delta. If it's much better, say 0.25% hospitalisation rates, then we could get away without further measures being implemented before Christmas - but it would still be a challenge.

Posted by an epidemiologist just now on Twitter:

“Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.”

I trust Sturgeon and Drakeford and worryingly they seem more cautious/pessimistic than the PM was the other day. It’s just a hunch but I think that matters are more serious than Johnson is prepared to admit. I do not find him reliable or convincing but I have a different view of Sturgeon and Drakeford and I can’t imagine that things are vastly different in their countries than in England.

I am hoping schools closing for Xmas will help. We are really struggling to stay open with so many staff and child cases. We have had to close a class. This is primary.

Wales are onto weekly reviews of the restrictions now rather than 3 weekly, that means there are 2 more before Christmas Day….

wonderstuff123 Cases in Gauteng as of yesterday: twitter.com/lrossouw/status/1469081889151541254

Starting to slow the same way elsewhere: twitter.com/rajeev_the_king/status/1469401713786470409

Our local hospital issued a statement last week (to staff) saying they couldn’t currently provide emergency care and that patient safety on the wards was compromised due to staffing. A&e was still open, a friend’s aunt was in there for 24 hours to be seen. If things get worse we are screwed, not coping now.

@FestiveMelts

Genuine question - why does the R rate need to stay below 1 for a less deadly variant?

a) we don't yet know whether it's less deadly, or (crucially) if it is, then by how much? b) a small percentage of a big number is bigger than a larger percentag of a big number c) that small percentage could be enough to over-stress the NHS, which is still a dreadful outcome

We need to be watch hospital admissions figures, rather than case numbers.

And it would be beyond reckless to take anything other than a precautionary approach for the first few weeks. Because if itncauses twice as many cases as previous variants, but is only a third less serious, then we're in big trouble. And even worse trouble if we give it an easy ride in terms of trajectory of early rises.

GreenClock completely agree.. i'm in Wales, and have to say, that everyone i know is so grateful we have Drakeford making decisions here!

Have to say I went to a&e recently and got seen in ten minutes

I honestly don’t know the answer. I despair for anyone needing urgent care in hospitals right now.

There probably should be more stringent measures soon. There probably won't be until after Christmas.

@UnmentionedElephantDildo (great name!) is spot on about the 'less dangerous' thing. I keep on having to explain to people that it's probably more 'extra contangious' than it is 'more mild', so you'll just have a larger number of people overall being seriously ill simply because so many people will have it simultaneously.

Didn’t catch his name but a senior consultant at an hospital in South Africa was on PM this evening. He is dealing with the first cases of the new variant.
He was cautiously optimistic
that this is a milder illness than delta. He also said he is becoming increasingly optimistic every day. He was also clear that at the moment, those being hospitalised are predominantly unvaccinated or partially vaccinated and his very clear message was “get your vaccines”.

I can't imagine many people listening to more stringent restrictions. I will not be following any "rules" that involve not seeing family or friends. To shut hospitality will mean reintroduction of furlough.

@CovidCorvid

Our local hospital issued a statement last week (to staff) saying they couldn’t currently provide emergency care and that patient safety on the wards was compromised due to staffing. A&e was still open, a friend’s aunt was in there for 24 hours to be seen. If things get worse we are screwed, not coping now.

Maybe GPs will have to start seeing patients again then. A lot of those that can’t get appointments are just turning up at A&E to get treatments/diagnosis that should be done at a surgery, not in a hospital! No wonder the system is creaking with this ridiculous scenario.

@Chloemol

Don’t worry judging by the posts on her most of Mumsnet will ignore any new measures and then will complain when they can’t get treated in hospital for anything, never mind covid

We're not going to be treated for anything, never mind Covid, whether we go to parties or not. The NHS - or a new, different health service - will only start to become properly effective if we stop genuflecting to the current NHS and start a proper discussion about why it is no longer fit for purpose and never will be, even if there actually were a magic money tree.

Half the schools and colleges break up so that’s less spreading. It’ll be more checking in and staying apart.

Interestedly 5% of my Facebook friends are on holiday at the moment. Which is high considering schools haven’t broken up and it’s not the two week Christmas shut down.

BTW, a question for those who would either be furloughed, again, or are WFH. Would you be so keen on another lockdown if your options were a) either physically to be at work (i.e. not working in your own home); or b) earn absolutely nothing for months on end?

Include any husbands/wives/partners in this. So that would be both of you earning £0.

Yet no one has been hospitalised with it or have died yet ......

This is all about the social care and NHS systems being unfit for purpose, which they always are every year, and that tiny bit more strain of having more people off/isolating is just tipping them over the edge. This was forseeable- how can we have less capacity two years in and nothing to have addressed that, just fewer care staff, fewer beds, fewer nurses? Of course, Brexit must have worsened the staff shortage...

@IamGusFring

Yet no one has been hospitalised with it or have died yet ......

This is the reason that people will not comply with any restrictions! People are done now.

We will not be locking down before Christmas or even in the new year, that's for sure. Do you really think the government are just going let shops/restaurants/bars etc close with absolutely no money to subsidise their income? Furlough is no longer an active system of support, which means it will need to be implemented properly again. With most offices closing for Christmas in the next week or so, including many of HMRC, do you really think they are going to have the manpower to implement any kind of support system?

@Jellykat

GreenClock completely agree.. i'm in Wales, and have to say, that everyone i know is so grateful we have Drakeford making decisions here!

Speak for yourself. I work in a secondary school and can't get a booster. I could in England.

@IamGusFring

Yet no one has been hospitalised with it or have died yet ......

What do you suggest? That we wait 10 days and see if the NHS gets totally overwhelmed and then wring our hands about the dead bodies piling up?

If the health service breaks down, it's not just Covid that will kill people, it's all those emergencies like heart attacks, strokes and road traffic accident victims that won't be able to be treated too.