More stringent measures next week?

[AchillesLastStand]

From the Guardian just now:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

@LaurieFairyCake

I fucking hate lockdown but if this headline is true we can't lose 25-75,000 people

We just can't - is no one reading the threads about Mumsnetters partner who are 40's and nearly died? These are not only going to be people at the end of life anyway

These are people who could be in hospital for MONTHS preventing any other operations taking place - not to mention the strain on mental health on the staff

Estimates in the first lockdown say we SAVED 40,000 lives having it

That is the daily mail reporting what the advisers said would be the worst scenario, not what will happen. They report it that way so people get hysterical.

Regardless, if it were true and 75k people will die from Omicron without lockdown then that is how many people will unfortunately have to die. It's very sad and I lost someone close to me because of covid near the start of the pandemic but there is no alternative. Omicron will not be the last variant. Even if we lockdown completely for six months, another few months after restrictions ease it would be a new variant and another 75k people who may died.

It's the circle of life. None of us are here forever and people who are really worried and/or vulnerable need to take responsibility for themselves and do what they need to do to protect themselves. If that means quitting their jobs and shielding while on UC, then that is their right and there choice. The government cannot continue to ruin the lives of many many more people than covid will ever kill, because of the few who may or may not get it and who may or may not die if they do.

Businesses are folding left right and centre because of lockdown. People are losing their jobs, their homes and everything they have ever worked for. Mental health issues have shot through the roof because of lockdown, as has the number of homeless people, domestic violence victims and child abuse victims. Our children, who are out future are not getting a good enough education as we keep dragging them out of school. People are dying because lockdown means no GP appointments and cancer is being missed.

If you are CEV then you have a choice and you can choose to lockdown yourself, you cannot say no you don't want to do that etc etc but then expect the whole country to do it instead.

It cannot go on forever. Besides, the more people who get covid, the more immunity they have and the more chance we have of covid dying out. Hiding behind closed doors from it does nothing.

[quote OnceuponaRainbow18]@BaronessEllarawrosaurus

Well ideally they will prioritise school workers for boosters then[/quote]
Yep. There are a lot of people under 40 who have no chance of a booster this side of Christmas including a lot of teachers.

But our government and journalists are made up of those over 40, so they completely forget this.

So @Autumndays123 have you reviewed your family and friends to see which ones you are happy to sacrifice?

Elderly parents? Friend with breast cancer? Auntie with diabetes? What's your limit?

Plus you are making the incorrect assumption that deaths are the only negative health outcome from Covid. Tell that to all the 'recovered' Covid patients dealing with life changing health conditions. You OK with that too?

@LaurieFairyCake

I fucking hate lockdown but if this headline is true we can't lose 25-75,000 people

We just can't - is no one reading the threads about Mumsnetters partner who are 40's and nearly died? These are not only going to be people at the end of life anyway

These are people who could be in hospital for MONTHS preventing any other operations taking place - not to mention the strain on mental health on the staff

Estimates in the first lockdown say we SAVED 40,000 lives having it

This is not a prediction.

It's a worst case scenario projection, deliberately dramatised by the DM for clicks.

It's modelling by the London School of Tropical Medicine

Yes, modelling

Modelling is not the same as predictions

Further restrictions? Wonderful. After masks and work from home it's usually household mixing. No wonder people say they'll still see family regardless. My child is at school on the 22nd. I'm not buying that's OK but 3 days later it's not OK to spend less time with less people than they did in the classroom.

@WoodenReindeer

Its frightening. The hospitals are craking more now than during the worst of covid... but what to do??

Vaccinations. That's what. The majority of people who need to be hospitalised haven't been vaccinated. They are the cause of the NHS woes.

Worst case prediction... it's worst case because it's without additional restrictions, not a model upper limit

@HesterShaw1

Yes, modelling

Modelling is not the same as predictions

People use modelling to make predictions

Excellent post, Autumndays, though I've no doubt you'll be told you're a eugenicist
I'd have thought it obvious by now that nobody actively wants people to die; however in a pandemic some sadly do die, and a certain amount of the panic seems to be because folk struggle to accept this will always be the case no matter what we sacrifice to the cause

This isn't a view I'm fond of, but a scientist in my family believes that after decades of trying to preserve life at any cost, and ending up with huge numbers of very ill people kept alive way beyond their natural lifespan, this virus is "nature's way" of rebalancing things
As said it's not a particularly attractive POV, but it's hard not to wonder if he has a point

Yes but using a model to make predictions is far more robust/ accurate than making a prediction over a glass of wine with mates

'I for one could never be so selfish, cancer or not, to expect millions of people to suffer so I'm ok'

@Autumndays123

But It's fine for thousands of people to die so you don't have to interrupt your life?

Also love your idea of anyone not wanting to work, just claiming UC. Who is going to teach your children, provide your childcare, empty your bins, stack the shelves, check out your food while you carry on living your life? (And pay tax to allow them to do that)
It can't work like that.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Excellent post, Autumndays, though I've no doubt you'll be told you're a eugenicist I'd have thought it obvious by now that nobody actively wants people to die; however in a pandemic some sadly do die, and a certain amount of the panic seems to be because folk struggle to accept this will always be the case no matter what we sacrifice to the cause

This isn't a view I'm fond of, but a scientist in my family believes that after decades of trying to preserve life at any cost, and ending up with huge numbers of very ill people kept alive way beyond their natural lifespan, this virus is "nature's way" of rebalancing things
As said it's not a particularly attractive POV, but it's hard not to wonder if he has a point

I get that - I've done end of life care and always thought sometimes you can PTS a suffering animal but we can't do anything for a human? Doesn't seem right But I have a normal life expectancy pretty much, yet I fall in the 500,000 that got a third vaccine and classed as very vulnerable to covid. That's the tricky bit, am a fully functioning not unwell member of society and mid thirties

I wish people would stop using the word "eugenics" (etc) incorrectly.
Eugenics is about "gene pool" health. The deaths of people who are too old to reproduce are therefore not connected with eugenics.

But It's fine for thousands of people to die so you don't have to interrupt your life?

It's not just about people having to interrupt their lives. What about those who lose their livelihoods and therefore their homes because of lockdowns/restrictions? Don't they count?

Naive statement - how do you train nurses and medical staff in that short period of time?

First you don't make the environment so hostile through Brexit that lots and lots of foreign doctors and nurses leave.

Second, you don't get rid of nurse bursaries so that it is a less attractive option unless you are independently wealthy.

Third, you can train health-care assistants and social care assistants quite quickly to provide lots of pairs of hands, perhaps with the 35 billion you have saved from not paying your friends to set up Track and Trace and spending 1 billion shoring up existing public health teams to do that.

Just for starters, that's not even addressing the inefficiency of the NHS anyway, or whether we should move to a social insurance system as in other developed countries...

I wish people would stop using the word "eugenics" (etc) incorrectly

I agree, Kokeshi, but I guess some find it another useful insult to bandy around along with all the rest

Best of all it has a scientific sound to it, which perhaps helps them to feel their insults have credibility

[quote OnceuponaRainbow18]@BaronessEllarawrosaurus

Well ideally they will prioritise school workers for boosters then[/quote]
What about supermarket workers, key workers, things like factory food production, delivery drivers, bus and train drivers? Once you start prioritising by what work someone does then you are back to square one and there are too many deemed essential who would qualify first for the booster. Prioritising higher risk first is the only sensible way. I just don't agree that anything should be closed while we get on and do it, I do think that the system for providing boosters should be ramped up though so they can get through more and people can access it easily.

@Autumndays123

Yep those who want to lockdown should be allowed to do so, at their own expenses. That means finding a job that will let you work from home, or failing that, sign up for universal credit. There is absolutely no reason why the rest of society, 95% of whom will get nothing but a mild illness if they even catch it in the first place, should lockdown and ruin their lives.

I have a vulnerable child who is unable to be vaccinated as do many others. Sure what I'll do is, stay at home and claim benefits just so you can have a normal life. I work in a school and the class teacher is also CEV so I tell you what she will stay at home as well and given the lack of education staff available these days who do you suggest will teach your child while you carry on with life?

@BaronessEllarawrosaurus

Most shop workers can socially distance and everyone in shops have to wear masks, delivery drivers tend to work alone and outside, factory workers- yes should be prioritised, but still majority are jabbed and wear masks.

@ChequerBoard

So *@Autumndays123* have you reviewed your family and friends to see which ones you are happy to sacrifice?

Elderly parents? Friend with breast cancer? Auntie with diabetes? What's your limit?

Plus you are making the incorrect assumption that deaths are the only negative health outcome from Covid. Tell that to all the 'recovered' Covid patients dealing with life changing health conditions. You OK with that too?

Who is being sacrificed? I've quote clearly said it is up to the individual person if they want to lockdown

Why on earth should a vulnerable person say "nope I'm not locking down by myself. I'm not risking my job, I want the whole country to lockdown and millions more jobs at risk because that's fair"

It's not fair, and do you know what else it is? Selfish. It's selfish to watch millions of people and children suffer because you think you and your heath are more important.

So people who are vulnerable must sacrifice themselves to prevent the nhs failing and the economy tanking

Tell that to the hospitality owners whose businesses are tanking due to people making thier own choices

Abs what do you say to the parents of kids sent home because their teachers decide if it's every man for themselves then they are isolating for as long as it takes

@twinkletoesimnot

'I for one could never be so selfish, cancer or not, to expect millions of people to suffer so I'm ok'

@Autumndays123

But It's fine for thousands of people to die so you don't have to interrupt your life?

Also love your idea of anyone not wanting to work, just claiming UC. Who is going to teach your children, provide your childcare, empty your bins, stack the shelves, check out your food while you carry on living your life? (And pay tax to allow them to do that)
It can't work like that.

Are you for real? So you think giving people a choice about whether they want to lockdown and allowing those who do not is selfish? You think it's better everyone is forced to lockdown? Mental. Absolutely mental. I can only assumed you're on the wind up?

And yes, if people choose to lockdown for the rest of their lives to hide from covid then they absolutely need to claim UC. You can't seriously be suggesting that people can choose to lockdown for 20/30 maybe even 40 years, never go to work again and get full pay? Bonkers.

I can't tell if you're obtuse, narrow minded or having me on.

@2389Champ

Worth bearing in mind, that the government will always use the experts that support and endorse their particular narrative. There are plenty of just as qualified and competent experts out there that believe lockdowns etc don’t work and do more harm than good. Not cranks or conspiracy theorists, they just have a differing view, but they are screamed down by group.

A case of my expert is better than your expert because s/he tells me what I want to hear.

The Chief Medical Officer is an external appointment and is not appointed by the government.