More stringent measures next week?

[AchillesLastStand]

From the Guardian just now:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

@GoldenOmber

There isn’t an option to avoid lots of deaths forever.If omicron is going to cause that then all that locking down this winter would do is push them into spring. Or, absolute best case scenario, push them into the next variant.

So my plan would be accepting that, rather than kidding ourselves that if we all just Stay The Fuck At Home now we can make covid disappear. Instead, ficus on what we can do to mitigate the damage, and right now the best bet for that looks like dialling up the booster rollout.

It’s very easy to say we should be ‘accepting’ ‘lots of deaths’ unless it affects you and your family.

people are making changes,
they wear masks
they have vaccines passports
christmas parties are not standard

@MrsLargeEmbodied

people are making changes, they wear masks they have vaccines passports christmas parties are not standard

Yes and that’s far off your other list

And many people are still packing out pubs etc

I know some are very risk averse on here re Covid but it’s not the same for everyone. I think it’s wishful thinking on your part tbh

Yes, it is two years in now, we are all fully aware of the need for NHS capacity. Plus, I worked on COVID response including looking at NHS capacity in the first wave; believe me, I know what an overwhelmed NHS would have looked like.

But lockdowns were not done to ‘flatten the curve’. Lockdowns we’re done to absolutely flatten the curve as much as we could u til we knew if vaccines were going to work out. Because when you lift the lockdown, COVID comes right back and now you are dealing with that on top of all the other NHS issues caused by lockdowns.

We should do what we reasonably can to mitigate the worst effects of omicron, but we should be honest with ourselves about what ‘reasonably’ and ‘mitigate’ look like in a post-vaccine world. Locking down again and again and again and again is not it.

But there isn’t an option to avoid deaths, if that requires preventing them from ever getting COVID. We do not have the power to do that

Its a very difficult situation, with no easy answers but are you prepared to be one of those 100s of 1000s of CV deaths?

We don't need a full on LD, we need to have a much larger health system & more restrictions that slow spread but still allow a lot of normality.

CV struck 2 years ago, what has the Govt done to build up staff numbers & capacity in the NHS? they still have exactly the same number of vacancies now as back in 2019, still no social care solution (to prevent bed blocking), in fact its even worse, with less staff, so Boris has done nothing.

It’s very easy to say we should be ‘accepting’ ‘lots of deaths’ unless it affects you and your family.

It isn’t about ‘accepting’ loads of deaths. It is about not kidding ourselves that the choice is between ‘accepting’ them and ‘not accepting’ them. We CAN’T make COVID go away. We are not that powerful. We can vaccinate like crazy and hope that’s enough, but if it’s not enough, we don’t have a backup plan that prevents people dying of COVID, unless you really think locking down for six months of every year forever is the way to go?

@MarshaBradyo
you are right of course, people are packing out pubs, i imagine, i havent been to a pub since August, it was packed, and it was Brilliant

I don’t know anyone that wants a lockdown or things to close. But I would like people to take some personal responsibility for a couple of weeks so we can see what’s going on with with omicron. Wear masks, take tests before meeting people or if been around covid. Such small things can make a difference.

Lockdown isn’t the answer, we do have to live with covid but living with covid doesn’t mean letting people die with it just because they have existing illness. But when it affects an overwhelmed health system. It’s everyone that’s affected when there are no beds. I’ve worked in the NHS for 16 years I’d say at least the last 5/6 years it’s been even worse. Social care needs to be looked at so much it’s poorly funded, organised and paid and causes so many beds to be full for no reason. It takes ridiculous amounts of time to get patients from a hospital to care in the community or even at home.

Don’t try and tell me that hospitals aren’t busy. I work in one. I see it every day. It’s been non stop rubbish for months. Staffing is a huge issue so workload is even worse. We’ve managed to find a way to include covid in that now but on much lower bed numbers than this time last year.

This might come as a shock to some, but 1000s die in CHs every year anyway. It’s the circle of life - and I speak from experience too. Both my mother and MIL died last year. Not from covid, but had they not been taken by dementia/frailty first there is no doubt that they would have been covid victims. Nothing could have been done to save them, whatever the actual cause of death. When the average age of a covid victim is 82, we need to get a grip on this cycle of hysteria.

If we tested as diligently for flu as we have done for covid, I suspect we would have been shocked how many die every year from it. I’ve had flu twice and I was much younger than most of its victims and I was very, very poorly - despite having a vaccine. I didn’t eat and barely drank for a week and just couldn’t lift my head off the pillow. My brush with covid was ironically a non event.

If we could guarantee we could find just the right level of restrictions to let omicron pass through the population but not overwhelm NHS capacity, and we were very honest about the cost as well as the benefit of those restrictions, I think that would definitely be a conversation worth having.

Really doubt that’s an option though. It wasn’t with original COVID (why we switched to lockdowns), and omicron moves so fast that by the time we k ew exactly what we needed to do it’s probably be too late to do it. Plus people now think that letting any variant pass through the population is basically an act of murder.

It’s very easy to say we should be ‘accepting’ ‘lots of deaths’ unless it affects you and your family.

Deaths from untreated cancer and heart disease that have been ignored and untreated these last 2 years are just as bad for the family as deaths from Covid. Doctors are predicting that these will soar over the next few years as so many other health problems are now going undetected.

All the news focuses on death from (and with Covid). If they are going to publish deaths they should publish 'because of Covid' deaths too so that we can see the true cost of all these lockdowns - people who have died at home because they felt they couldn't go to hospital due to Covid.

@AndreaC67

But there isn’t an option to avoid deaths, if that requires preventing them from ever getting COVID. We do not have the power to do that

Its a very difficult situation, with no easy answers but are you prepared to be one of those 100s of 1000s of CV deaths?

We don't need a full on LD, we need to have a much larger health system & more restrictions that slow spread but still allow a lot of normality.

CV struck 2 years ago, what has the Govt done to build up staff numbers & capacity in the NHS? they still have exactly the same number of vacancies now as back in 2019, still no social care solution (to prevent bed blocking), in fact its even worse, with less staff, so Boris has done nothing.

You're obviously right about needing to build up the NHS and fund it properly. But even if we start today, that's a longer term project and isn't going to address the current situation. Same with care, which of course was a colossal mess even before the ill advised vaccine requirement was introduced.

Equally, there aren't any restrictions s available that would fit your description. Because omicron is so easily transmissible and because it's well and truly here now. What you are basically saying is we need things we don't have.

And that takes us back to the point that there isn't an option to avoid further deaths. This is such a key point that anyone trying the thousands of avoidable deaths line isn't to be taken seriously at this point. Because either they're incapable of understanding the basics of the problem, or they're being disingenuous. All we get to choose at this point is how to manage it.

exactly,
it is the excess deaths - very worrying for all.
in lockdown for months, ignored the worrying health concerns, dont want to bother the doctor, can't justify seeing the doctor.
and then die

i believe carers are getting a pay increase as an incentive?

The health service struggles because those with the most immediate life threatening symptoms are always prioritised but that takes away capacity and funding from elsewhere. It has always been a problem. This is why mental health services for example tend to have less funding and longer waiting lists because it's easier to ask someone to wait a year for psychotherapy but you can't ask someone in the middle of a heart attack or bleeding out after an accident or stabbing to come back next month. If you have a high number of covid patients needing immediate treatment then there's no choice but to admit them and postpone someone else's planned hip replacement operation.

It's not as easy as "accepting" covid deaths because you can't separate the impact of covid like that.

We might not want to lockdown but what happens if essential services grind to a halt because staff is all off sick? Childcare staff and teachers, Royal Mail, refuse collections, rail workers and vets are just some examples of services already affected in many parts of the country.

@Jellykat

GreenClock completely agree.. i'm in Wales, and have to say, that everyone i know is so grateful we have Drakeford making decisions here!

I'm grateful for him. I don't agree with him on everything, naturally, but I do believe he is a man of integrity which is rare enough in politics.

[quote Autumndays123]@freeBritnee sorry but protecting the vulnerable was the point of the lock nearly two years ago. We did that, we made sacrifices and I'm done doing that. Why are we destroying the lives of so many people to protect those, who as a PP said, will likely succumb to the next variant anyway?

Do people really think covid will just disappear? Or do they really think there will be a vaccine found that works against all variants? That is unfortunately not how vaccines work[/quote]
Lovely 🤭

@MrsLargeEmbodied

i believe carers are getting a pay increase as an incentive?

No they are not, some NHS trusts have diverted money from their budgets to social care.

My DD was getting £10.05p per hour, often split shifts, so found herself in the middle of no where, with a 2 or 3 hour break (unpaid), appointments kept running on, travel time was always given based on no traffic, mileage hasn't increases in line with petrol price rises either.

Her real wage was below the MW, now she in the NHS proper.

But instead of dropping 40% tax relief on pensions, the very lowest paid have to find more council tax and pay more more NI..... some incentive!

Do people really think covid will just disappear? Or do they really think there will be a vaccine found that works against all variants?

Honestly I think many people just aren’t thinking beyond the immediate future. So if you say “but if we do this now, then we’ll be doing it every year, won’t we?” they’ll tell you that we won’t and you’re being ridiculous, but can’t really explain why not.

dont the scientists believe covid will turn into a flu, which we dont wear masks against, simply vaccinate every year.

[quote Autumndays123]@freeBritnee sorry but protecting the vulnerable was the point of the lock nearly two years ago. We did that, we made sacrifices and I'm done doing that. Why are we destroying the lives of so many people to protect those, who as a PP said, will likely succumb to the next variant anyway?

Do people really think covid will just disappear? Or do they really think there will be a vaccine found that works against all variants? That is unfortunately not how vaccines work[/quote]
@Autumndays123

Even after all this time, people are trotting out the same old lines. Lockdown was to protect the NHS, not the vulnerable. Whether you agree with lockdown or not, it’s really irritating that some people think they did it to be virtuous for us “vulnerable”.

Also “succumb to the next variant” is a charming way of speaking about your fellow human beings. And no, it isn’t likely. No idea where you’re getting your info from. People like me have to take extra precautions and that’s just the way it is. The country didn’t lockdown for us.

@Mickarooni what on earth do you mean it isn't likely? So you think this is the last variant and then we're all saved? Get a grip. If you want to protect yourself you lockdown, don't drag everyone else down with you

@nordica

The health service struggles because those with the most immediate life threatening symptoms are always prioritised but that takes away capacity and funding from elsewhere. It has always been a problem. This is why mental health services for example tend to have less funding and longer waiting lists because it's easier to ask someone to wait a year for psychotherapy but you can't ask someone in the middle of a heart attack or bleeding out after an accident or stabbing to come back next month. If you have a high number of covid patients needing immediate treatment then there's no choice but to admit them and postpone someone else's planned hip replacement operation.

It's not as easy as "accepting" covid deaths because you can't separate the impact of covid like that.

We might not want to lockdown but what happens if essential services grind to a halt because staff is all off sick? Childcare staff and teachers, Royal Mail, refuse collections, rail workers and vets are just some examples of services already affected in many parts of the country.

They wouldn’t all be off sick because for the vast majority of people who get Covid, it’s a mild illness. Which has been forgotten in the hysteria and fear mongering.

I think closing classes and fannying about is only going to prolong this bullshit.

We have to carry on living. This is fucking miserable for everyone.

Get your vaccines and carry on!

I have covid right now and I am absolutely fine.