Could we be getting it all wrong with Omicron?

[WineGetsMeThroughIt]

I posted before about why people seemed to be so worried about Omicron when the initial observations were that it's a more mild form of Coronavirus. Early studies are still showing this. www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/

So is anyone else wondering if perhaps the govt shouldn't be trying to contain it as much as they are, and instead 'let it rip' as MN'ers like to call it to see if it's ability to spread quickly could mean that it would overtake and wipe out Delta just as Delta wiped out the original strain?

Just a thought really. Don't get all up in arms calling me names. It's an honest question. Obviously we don't know the outcomes from it yet in large numbers, but so far the data is looking more promising than not. Could Omicron potentially be our ticket out of lockdowns??

I really think we need to wait and see. It might be more mild but haven't there already been reports of it increasing hospitilisations of under 5's?

If it does prove more mild then drop the red zone travel restrictions and it'll filter through.

I don't know OP but that article has made me feel much more positive and less anxious so thank you for that

The under 5 data is a red herring. It’s in South Africa and they had the same toddler hospitalisation rate for Delta - far higher then anything we saw with Delta. Their healthcare set up is completely different (ours is better) and our kids are being protected to a degree by the very high vaccine rates we have.
Far too early to tell what will happen with Omicron generally.. let’s wait for the proper studies (and not just ones from SA)

@womaninatightspot

I really think we need to wait and see. It might be more mild but haven't there already been reports of it increasing hospitilisations of under 5's?

If it does prove more mild then drop the red zone travel restrictions and it'll filter through.

I thought I read that the person who reported on the under 5's issues wasn't really a Dr and most of what he said was kind of to be taken with a grain of salt kind of approach? I'm sure I read that on here, but I honestly don't know. 🤷🏼‍♀️

I mean, obviously if it really does affect children badly then we'll all do whatever it takes to protect them. Fingers crossed it doesn't!!

That thought crossed my mind too OP.

I think it’s a bit early to make that decision, but, yes, if it is indeed a milder more infectious strain - then yes, “allowing it to run” sounds like a reasonable plan overall I think - as long as ICU capacity is available for the proportion of us that will still need it and those that need non-Covid medical care as well. So I don’t think we can slack on vaccinations and social distancing etc just yet. But it might be the end of the beginning as they say. If it is milder. Which isn’t known yet, just suspected.

Data coming out of SA is very positive. Seems milder, fewer people on oxygen, no deaths etc. The only issue is we've been caught out with this before. When the 'Kent' variant hit people were saying it's more transmissible but less deadly, fewer people ending up in hospital etc but all that was happening was mainly young people being infected. It took a while to creep into older and vulnerable groups and by then it was clear it wasn't any milder after all.

OP. others have definitely had that thought.

I think the issue is that even if Omicron is 'milder' than Delta and others (which still remains to be seen) if it's incredibly infectious, even if not vax-proof, it causing serious illness in even a small % of a huge mass of simultaneously infected people could be massively overwhelming for health services.

I'm not sure we can compare much to Gauteng, which a much younger, much poorer demographic. Really we need to see how it hits older people/ vulnerable groups in the UK/similar country and that might take a few weeks to really come through.

I hope to God it does turn out to much milder, but I do fear it's not going to be so mild that it doesn't turn out worse in serious illness/death terms. Christmas will make it an awful lot worse and whatever the news I don't think the UK government will be prepared to restrict anything meaningfully at all before then.

I think reintroducing masks was not a bad call. It isn't a lot of effort and doesn't cost much, but makes people more mindful. A sensible move when so much is unknown about omicron still. If they were to introduce further restrictions i would agree that they are jumping the gun.
Let's hope you are correct that this strain is mild and transmissible

I think the concern may be that whilst there is a possibility that fewer people are seriously ill (this is still very much unknown), it appears that it may be more easily transmitted.
This means that more people may become infected in one wave, so numbers of seriously ill could still become high/unmanageable just by virtue of the numbers infected being so much higher. So a smaller percentage of a higher number.

@WineGetsMeThroughIt

I posted before about why people seemed to be so worried about Omicron when the initial observations were that it's a more mild form of Coronavirus. Early studies are still showing this. www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/

So is anyone else wondering if perhaps the govt shouldn't be trying to contain it as much as they are, and instead 'let it rip' as MN'ers like to call it to see if it's ability to spread quickly could mean that it would overtake and wipe out Delta just as Delta wiped out the original strain?

Just a thought really. Don't get all up in arms calling me names. It's an honest question. Obviously we don't know the outcomes from it yet in large numbers, but so far the data is looking more promising than not. Could Omicron potentially be our ticket out of lockdowns??

You might want to watch this, it does look promising..

Why don't you trust the people who do this for a living. You know...the hundreds of scientists who are working their socks of right now to bring us more information.

Totally agree OP - definitely should be encouraging everyone to party hard this Christmas and New year since it looks like Omicron will crowd out delta

No hospitalisations to date that I have see reported (the young children thing was a red herring - high hiv area as well bear in mind)

If it's more transmissible than Delta it's not going to be containable with masks in shops so I think we will naturally get to what you suggest anyway if no additional measures are brought in. I don't think there was any real expectation in government that the measures they brought in were going to make a significant difference to transmission in themselves (though the loss of confidence which has led to people cancelling parties etc. might do).

If it does turn out to be milder than Delta but more infectious it would be a fool's game to try to suppress it long-term.

The government is being entirely sensible for once with adding testing and travel restrictions and more mask use until we know more. In the past they've acted too slowly. I'm feeling quite optimistic about it but it would be completely irresponsible just to let it spread without knowing what we're up against.

I think the issue is that even if Omicron is 'milder' than Delta and others (which still remains to be seen) if it's incredibly infectious, even if not vax-proof, it causing serious illness in even a small % of a huge mass of simultaneously infected people could be massively overwhelming for health services

I agree with Echobelly. There is also the potential for disruption if it infects people in a workplace en masse who are then too ill to work for a few days. That could cause chaos. Imagine the kerfuffle if a few shops in a particular area can't open because of staff shortages for example. It would be the like the toilet roll panic+++

I was thinking the same.

There is a lot of bafflement in South Africa at the moment at the massive over reaction from the U.K

It's a numbers game.
Remember right back to March 2020 when lockdown was intended to "flatten the curve"? That's what we're trying to do now.
We know Omicron is here, we know it's circulating. The measures are to slow, not stop, the spread. To try to prevent too many people ending up in hospital at the same time, on top of usual winter illnesses.

I'm hopeful it may be the variant we need; highly contagious and v mild, but it's too early to tell

We just don't know yet. The original outbreaks in SA have been in uni students, so not expected to be seriously ill. We also have a huge number of vaccinated people in other countries now (like the super-spreader restaurant event in Norway), so again less likely to be seriously ill. It's when it reaches the elderly, the immunocompromised and the unvaccinated that we'll know what we're dealing with.

Doesn't it have more mutations in the regions that were used to design the vaccines? Ok so if the disease it causes is mild, that's ok, but could it be the first step in the virus starting to become resistant to the vaccines we have? I'm not a virologist so don't have a strong understanding of mutational drift.

I think the issue is that even if Omicron is 'milder' than Delta and others (which still remains to be seen) if it's incredibly infectious, even if not vax-proof, it causing serious illness in even a small % of a huge mass of simultaneously infected people could be massively overwhelming for health services

This, really. A smaller % hospitalised out of a bigger number infected could still mean a bigger number hospitalised than we can cope with. Without knowing exactly how much milder, and how much more infectious, it is, nobody can calculate exactly what the best solution is. It's probably better to be cautious until we know.

@containsnuts

Data coming out of SA is very positive. Seems milder, fewer people on oxygen, no deaths etc. The only issue is we've been caught out with this before. When the 'Kent' variant hit people were saying it's more transmissible but less deadly, fewer people ending up in hospital etc but all that was happening was mainly young people being infected. It took a while to creep into older and vulnerable groups and by then it was clear it wasn't any milder after all.

This might be key. The population of South Africa skews very young. Once we have the data, then the experts can draw better conclusions. Excess caution is probably good at this stage.

It’s in South Africa and they had the same toddler hospitalisation rate for Delta

That is not what they are reporting from their hospitals. They are reporting something like 5 times the hospitalisation rate for under 5s than in the Delta wave.