Could we be getting it all wrong with Omicron?

[WineGetsMeThroughIt]

I posted before about why people seemed to be so worried about Omicron when the initial observations were that it's a more mild form of Coronavirus. Early studies are still showing this. www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/

So is anyone else wondering if perhaps the govt shouldn't be trying to contain it as much as they are, and instead 'let it rip' as MN'ers like to call it to see if it's ability to spread quickly could mean that it would overtake and wipe out Delta just as Delta wiped out the original strain?

Just a thought really. Don't get all up in arms calling me names. It's an honest question. Obviously we don't know the outcomes from it yet in large numbers, but so far the data is looking more promising than not. Could Omicron potentially be our ticket out of lockdowns??

We aren’t far enough into the life cycle of the mutation to know this. We don’t know for example if there is a dip in recovery at the 3 week phase or if the development of long covid (or another post viral syndrome as yet unknown) is more prevalent in omicron. It will take a fair few weeks/months to have a clear view. No decent scientist would say anything much at this point as there isn’t enough data.

It has long been argued that a far more deadly covid that did not transmit well would be easier to tackle.

The challenge as well with a “mild bit transmissible” version is that behaviourally, there’s less incentive for individuals to act. If people think the risk of serious illness if they catch covid is high, they’re more likely to try to avoid catching it. If they think if they catch it they’ll only be mildly ill, the incentive to avoid it is low. And so it spreads more.

The masks certainly make no difference. We’ve had them all along in Scotland and no difference in rates, higher at times. Ditto Wales.

People love feeling they can Do Something! And that if they are Good then they’ll be ok. That’s all it is.

@theriverrunsthrough

There is a lot of bafflement in South Africa at the moment at the massive over reaction from the U.K

Why "just" the UK? Countries all over the world are slamming their borders shut.

But if it spreads rapidly ( which I think we can assume it will ) we'll loose a huge number of the workforce because they and their households will be isolating for 10 days.

@WouldBeGood

The masks certainly make no difference. We’ve had them all along in Scotland and no difference in rates, higher at times. Ditto Wales.

People love feeling they can Do Something! And that if they are Good then they’ll be ok. That’s all it is.

Please provide the evidence that case rates would not be higher in Scotland and Wales without masks.

Oh, you can't.

What’s your evidence to the contrary @rruth?

Seems an odd position to take.

My evidence is England 😃

(And France and Germany where masks compulsory too along with vaccine passports, cases rife)

@WouldBeGood @rrhuth England and Scotland can't really be compared as most of the cases have been driven in schools and term dates, holidays etc have all been different. It's apples and pears. But there is plenty of actual medical evidence to show masks impact on transmission.
People arguing against any one part of the mitigations are missing the point, it's like saying let's stop wearing seatbelts now we have brakes on the car. Or perhaps we could just remove all speed limits ?

I think being cautious is best way, than let it rip and regret later.

@WouldBeGood

What’s your evidence to the contrary *@rruth*?

Seems an odd position to take.

My evidence is England 😃

(And France and Germany where masks compulsory too along with vaccine passports, cases rife)

If you're evidence is another country, there isn't much to say, is there? Illogical.

your evidence

I think we need the data and analysis first

Hopefully it will be on the more positive side

I think you can look at it two ways. If you book a private dining room that comes with a special menu then yes it would be considered an event and you should pay.

However if you sent out a message to friends and said I am thinking of doing this for my birthday at so and so time. Who fancies it? I would say people should expect to pay for themselves but you may also find people don't want to come if it's a mixed social group.

So I think you need to down grade your plans or change them to a buffet style party to suit budget

@Emsie1987

I think you can look at it two ways. If you book a private dining room that comes with a special menu then yes it would be considered an event and you should pay.

However if you sent out a message to friends and said I am thinking of doing this for my birthday at so and so time. Who fancies it? I would say people should expect to pay for themselves but you may also find people don't want to come if it's a mixed social group.

So I think you need to down grade your plans or change them to a buffet style party to suit budget

Can you explain your analogy a bit more please ?

@herecomesthsun, I think @Emsie1987 posted on a wrong thread.

I have thought same as you OP but guess they just don't have all the data to be sure yet .

m.youtube.com/watch?v=MlEswbeQNPg&fbclid=IwAR02Xgwn6RujGar4qaQg0b_ho98aqF3CwxXy75EtkYlmDJqf9vkuB8-XZ0o

To the poster...
That is very interesting and I applaud your honesty. Well done 😻

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469350830864322560?s=21

Get boostered people!

If I've understood this correctly, vaccine efficiency with 2x AZ is zero, 2x Pfizer is 30%.

Booster brings protection up to 70-75% no matter what first vaccine was.

Small case numbers and early days but...

@WineGetsMeThroughIt

I posted before about why people seemed to be so worried about Omicron when the initial observations were that it's a more mild form of Coronavirus. Early studies are still showing this. www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/

So is anyone else wondering if perhaps the govt shouldn't be trying to contain it as much as they are, and instead 'let it rip' as MN'ers like to call it to see if it's ability to spread quickly could mean that it would overtake and wipe out Delta just as Delta wiped out the original strain?

Just a thought really. Don't get all up in arms calling me names. It's an honest question. Obviously we don't know the outcomes from it yet in large numbers, but so far the data is looking more promising than not. Could Omicron potentially be our ticket out of lockdowns??

Don't we need to find out how dangerous it is first?

@SonnetForSpring

Why don't you trust the people who do this for a living. You know...the hundreds of scientists who are working their socks of right now to bring us more information.

What is that even supposed to mean? They have the same questions. And contrary to what some seem to think, they don't all agree on many things related to covid.

Which doesn't surprise anyone in the sciences, only people who think political policy can be based off pure science without any other inputs.

@peridito

But if it spreads rapidly ( which I think we can assume it will ) we'll loose a huge number of the workforce because they and their households will be isolating for 10 days.

This is a created problem, though. The isolation requirements have never been sustainable, and at some point they are going to have to rethink them.

Lobster originally ( and at the time I posted that) contacts were being told to isolate for 10 days.
But this has now changed to contacts not being told to isolate but to take daily LFTs .