Could we be getting it all wrong with Omicron?

[WineGetsMeThroughIt]

I posted before about why people seemed to be so worried about Omicron when the initial observations were that it's a more mild form of Coronavirus. Early studies are still showing this. www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/

So is anyone else wondering if perhaps the govt shouldn't be trying to contain it as much as they are, and instead 'let it rip' as MN'ers like to call it to see if it's ability to spread quickly could mean that it would overtake and wipe out Delta just as Delta wiped out the original strain?

Just a thought really. Don't get all up in arms calling me names. It's an honest question. Obviously we don't know the outcomes from it yet in large numbers, but so far the data is looking more promising than not. Could Omicron potentially be our ticket out of lockdowns??

@didireallysaythat

Doesn't it have more mutations in the regions that were used to design the vaccines? Ok so if the disease it causes is mild, that's ok, but could it be the first step in the virus starting to become resistant to the vaccines we have? I'm not a virologist so don't have a strong understanding of mutational drift.

That’s correct, there’s concern that it could escape the currently used vaccines www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232217/qa-imperial-experts-discuss-variant-b11529/

We don’t know yet though.

Letting it rip without any real understanding of this variant could end up costing thousands and thousands of lives. It could also be fine. They can go two ways here and they have chosen the safest way. Do we really want them to repeat the same mistakes they have made time and time again and possibly put us in lockdown again?

The milder thing is great on the one hand but don't forget the 77,000 kids in this country living with long Covid after a 'mild' infection.

It’s winter with added pressure on the NHS, everything is being done to get us through to spring. I am happy with the current measures being taken. I don’t think Christmas will be cancelled, but I think people will be sensible.

A smaller percentage (less people getting hospitalised) of a very big number (lots more people having covid at the same time) can still lead to a lot of people in ICU. This explains a bit better.

mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1467628403553615885?t=MOlL3dtuZSIWEQ-mQ0vnzQ&s=19

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@justaskingagain

The milder thing is great on the one hand but don't forget the 77,000 kids in this country living with long Covid after a 'mild' infection.

Have you got any sources for that? Because honestly trying to get a diagnosis for an adult is like finding hens teeth.

Apologies for the random "the".

We can but hope and proceed with caution until scientists know more about it. We can't really assume anything, but it's possible the virus becoming more transmissible could mean it's less potent. I certainly hope so.

I’m rubbish at links but there seems to be more discussion this morning about this.

Reports saying most people in hospital in S.Africa were admitted for something else and tested positive whilst in there and are having mild symptoms. One doctor saying they are not seeing hospital admissions for this variant.

All this talk about thousands of under 5s admitted to hospital with this new variant are being disproved. They will be in hospital for other reasons and test positive whilst there.

Obviously S.Africa has a younger population but it also has very low vaccination rates. If we remember when Delta took hold in India we were very quickly seeing serious disease in the younger population.

WHO is critical of countries imposing a travel ban on S.Africa, particularly us. Japan have reversed this decision.

Now we won’t know more for a couple of weeks but it’s important to provide balance to the more scary reports in the media. And to delve in to the actual data more.

I thought the main concern was that the vaccines might not be very effective against this strain. So our population is a lot more vulnerable to it? Or could be as we don’t know yet. If it is slightly milder that is good but only if it is so mild vaccines aren’t needed.

Hmm yes, I think we should just infect as many people as possible before we have the information we only have to wait three weeks to get

Could Omicron potentially be our ticket out of lockdowns?? We are not in a lockdown anyway, so what does this even mean?

It would be massively thick to let it spread before we know how serious it is. There is no evidence yet it is milder than Delta is there?

Why are we so confident it will outcompete/take over from Delta? Given that previous Delta infection doesn’t provide immunity from Omicron could the same not apply the other way round? In which case they could potentially just run parallel?

There have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths with this new variant. It’s been around for at least a few weeks (probably more). It does appear that it’s extremely mild. That is what is being reported. In a country with low vaccination rates.

The WHO are calling for countries to reverse the travel bans.

@SonnetForSpring

Why don't you trust the people who do this for a living. You know...the hundreds of scientists who are working their socks of right now to bring us more information.

Oh so this.

This for almost most threads.

@Delatron

There have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths with this new variant. It’s been around for at least a few weeks (probably more). It does appear that it’s extremely mild. That is what is being reported. In a country with low vaccination rates.

The WHO are calling for countries to reverse the travel bans.

There are increased hopsitalisations in the province of SA most affected by the variant?

Have a little patience. As has previously been pointed out we do not have enough data. I'm cautiously optimistic that this could be a good thing so I'm in no way being someone who wants to hang on to the pandemic. At the moment we have very little in restrictions just a mask and a bit of red tape whilst travelling.

Yep my mistake. The report I was reading was one hospital in S.Africa where the doctor was saying no admissions due to Covid. Only people already in for other things and also unvaccinated.

The reports coming out of S.Africa (and backed by the WHO) are that this strain looks milder and more infectious. The scientists will work out what that means over the next few weeks. It’s important to provide balance to the other unsubstantiated rumours on here. Especially the reports on going children.

@SonnetForSpring

Why don't you trust the people who do this for a living. You know...the hundreds of scientists who are working their socks of right now to bring us more information.

^this

There are increased hopsitalisations in the province of SA most affected by the variant?

Actually a significant number are people in hospital for other reasons who then go on to test positive for covid.

www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

Agreed.

We have diabolical tabloids in this country who whip up a frenzy of scaremongering every time a new variant appears and right on cue governments panics and start treating us like toddlers. I am also fed up with spotlight-loving 'experts' who can't wait to ramp up the doom and gloom.

Al are I want to see/hear are clear facts, data, evidence and studies. No one has died of Omicron so far and the symptoms reported seem to be milder.

SA has older people, like any country in this world, so even if they technically have a younger population we would still be seeing their elderlies ending up in hospital in the variant was that deadly which has not happened.

It is the usual pattern of viruses of becoming more infectious but milder to survive. At some point we have to spot trying to prevent this from happening as we are prolonging the pandemic...

We really do have to wait for info because something being milder but more infectious can quickly result in the NHS getting overwhelmed - if twice as many people catch something in a single month, but the % hospitalised is only e.g. a quarter lower, you will end up with more people in hospital.

It has long been argued that a far more deadly covid that did not transmit well would be easier to tackle.

The question we are needing to answer is what does it do in the elderly vaccinated section of the population. The combined impact of any vaccine escape with the natural severity of the variant is a complicted thing to work out.

There are so many people desparate to push the fact it is not serious.

They need to just accept we do not have the info yet. Uncertainty is horrible for humans, I understand why people are keen to pretend they have clarity, but we don't yet have the info we need.

There’s no way to stop it spreading anyway. That’s like King Canute trying to stop the sea.

I think we just need to accept it and crack on.

The alleged huge rate of long Covid in kids is rubbish. Totally discredited by paediatricians and studies. Yes, a very small percent have posted Covid effects, but it’s not a cause for restrictions

There’s no way to stop it spreading anyway amazing, I love these posts. Apart from masks, testing, ventilation, isolation, distancing etc - no, there is no way to stop it spreading.

And it definitely would make no difference in terms of health service provision if we have loads of cases in a short period of time as opposed to them being spread out, we can just put more hospital beds in the car park or something

'crack on' = I am not able to think complicated things through