Reports from South Africa that omicron is disproportionately effecting under 5s

[Notsomerryandbright]

I can’t see another thread title discussing this but I’ve just read that Health Officials in South Africa have reported they’ve had a disproportionate number of under 5s admitted into hospital with covid over the last 2 weeks, 29% classified as having severe infection.

I’m not trying to cause panic etc but this really worries me. Just wanted to start a thread in hope someone more knowledgeable will come along and make it seem less scary than the figures suggest.

www.news.com.au/world/africa/south-african-government-medical-adviser-reveals-how-omicron-is-hitting-under5s/news-story/995e5cb71b3e8d7d4ae159f92549b8d0

I delayed my eldest starting nursery because my dm is cev snd she helps with childcare a couple of times a month - I think I'd be keeping her home now though until this is clarified.

They both seem like reliable sources which is annoying. I suppose the head of icu in the telegraph article is giving his first hand account so less likely to be misconstrued compared to the analysis of information in the other report. It would also tie in with the first report I read where it stated 29% had severe disease so would be in icu.

It is not true that Omicron is hitting kids harder.

Most cases are mild and are detected in people who are in hospital for something else. And since the population of SA skews young, naturally that means a lot of them are children.

It's explained here:

mobile.twitter.com/roby_bhatt/status/1467353747663769600

"I was surprised to see kids being hospitalized so much more in SA in early reports. But if >70% of admissions are for other reasons, & COVID found on screening, I'd expect COVID rates of those admits to reflect community rates (lots of kids), not severe disease (few kids)."

That's the same report as was mentioned upthread, it does look very hopeful but was then contradicted by the telegraph article which cited the head of icu team stating that they were being affected more adversely.

I don't think we will know for sure for a week or two yet.

I wouldn’t consider the ICU head information useful. Reliable perhaps but not useful. Consider the similar reports we had from paediatric ICUs in the US during the Delta wave. These reports weren’t false but they were relatively useless for us - for whatever reason, the UK situation was never similar.

It would be very strange for those children to have Omicron by coincidence at a time when the uptick was high but prevalence was still (briefly) low.

However we just don't know anything yet and should be cautious until we have that all important data, given that we haven't bothered to protect our kids in any way at all.

given that we haven't bothered to protect our kids in any way at all

Trying SO HARD not to take this bait but really struggling.

A thread from a reputable source - science journalist at the FT.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468310625407442944

Seems confident that in South Africa there are fewer severe cases than in the previous wave. This may be due to the virus being intrinsically milder or the protective effect of previous infection/vaccination.

He also quotes a researcher in South Africa who thinks the wave in Guateng is near peak - if this is correct then it makes it almost certain that ICU admissions will not be close to Delta levels.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468310625407442944

Sky news reporting that Pfizer is not holding up against omicron. Up to 40% less effective against omicron than the original covid.

Oh no! That scares me.

@kirinm

Sky news reporting that Pfizer is not holding up against omicron. Up to 40% less effective against omicron than the original covid.

This report is a bit vague in my view, "40 times less effective" at doing what? Preventing symptomatic infection or preventing severe disease and death?

It's also only based on samples from 12 people so I think we probably need to wait and see how things develop. There are still a lot of contradictory accounts emerging at the moment.

@kirinm

Sky news reporting that Pfizer is not holding up against omicron. Up to 40% less effective against omicron than the original covid.

40% less effective at what though... Stopping transmission? Stopping symptoms? Stopping serious illness? Stopping death?

@kirinm

Sky news reporting that Pfizer is not holding up against omicron. Up to 40% less effective against omicron than the original covid.

Then Sky News are doing a piss poor interpretation of the study:

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468322626401669125

See also:

twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1468344558161469452?s=20

[quote ClintBartonsWife]See also:

twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1468344558161469452?s=20[/quote]
That does sound a lot less negative.

Oh no I wish I hadn't read this post 😰

Really poor interpretation.

The risk for serious disease is surely what matters, not people catching a cold.
And the testing only shows results for antibodies. For in vivo immunity, t cells and b cells are what tend to count here.
South Africa has similar demographics to Brazil and India, whichduring the Delta wavesaw really big increases in disease and death extremely quickly, almost from the start. If Omicron was liable to cause similar issues, we would be seeing signs of dramatic rises in severe illness and death by now. But it really does look pretty different this time round.

@Kokeshi123

Really poor interpretation.

The risk for serious disease is surely what matters, not people catching a cold.
And the testing only shows results for antibodies. For in vivo immunity, t cells and b cells are what tend to count here.
South Africa has similar demographics to Brazil and India, whichduring the Delta wavesaw really big increases in disease and death extremely quickly, almost from the start. If Omicron was liable to cause similar issues, we would be seeing signs of dramatic rises in severe illness and death by now. But it really does look pretty different this time round.

But that isn't the only risk is it? The volume of people catching it is an issue for the NHS too. There is an initial suggestion of an R rate of 3.5 / 4 which is significantly higher than delta.

I've read a couple of threads on twitter today saying hospital admissions are rising in SA now too. I have no idea who the people writing these threads are - all seem to be doctors but no idea whether they are respected or not so I won't name them or refer to the threads.

Re the increased hospital admissions - if it is spreading quickly that would account for the increased admissions regardless of severity I suppose.

I hadn't heard of this. God this is bad.

also didnt that study of the Pfizer jab not take into account the booster?

@Oblomov21

I hadn't heard of this. God this is bad.

Which bit is bad? It’s still too early to say much, but it is actually not looking quite as alarming as we thought initially. The vaccines are probably holding up against severe disease ok, especially with boosters.

I wouldn't worry too much about the 40 times fewer antibodies, there was a post on reddit that explained the study was looking at the first line of defence our bodies have - so essentially stopping the virus taking hold. It wasn't to do with protection from severe disease or death.

I'm trying to find something I saw yesterday. It was a video of the south Africa health department going through their graphics, like we get with Chris whitty. They had a graph with the age break downs and the vast majority of hospitalisations were over 60 and then between 0-2 years.
I should have screen shot it

@Notsomerryandbright

I'm trying to find something I saw yesterday. It was a video of the south Africa health department going through their graphics, like we get with Chris whitty. They had a graph with the age break downs and the vast majority of hospitalisations were over 60 and then between 0-2 years. I should have screen shot it

I wonder if it’s due to caution and admitting just in case rather admitting for a clinical need in the 0-2 age group ? At least I hope so