Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

[quote JanglyBeads]Data from SA on reinfections: not encouraging

twitter.com/miamalan/status/1466460836143239179?s=21[/quote]
That sounds like what they were talking about on the news earlier.

We have a populist government overly concerned with the concept of "behavioural fatigue" they seem to have made up.

Why made up? Do you think Chris Whitty was wrong?

Of course there are other considerations.

My point is ‘mild’ is a SM deliberation and it won’t be factored into decisions.

Look at JVT video and consider all the data feeding in.

Then consider trigger point for plan B

None of it will rest on speculation around it being ‘mild’.

I don't think this can be as mild as they say.

The doctor that discovered it said it was young men presenting to a clinic with it. Since when did young men ever go to a doctor for anything unless they felt really terrible?

A treble vaccinated friend now has Covid. All fine, not been told it is Omicron. So if this one is better at evading vaccines then it could be worrying. Looking forward to making it to spring.

Christmas holidays will be longer here as first three days are for return to school LFTs. However they are returning to homeschooling for those days.

The “maybe it’s mild” thing is stopping us (the world) taking the right action at the right time.

It was already in the UK before it was discovered so the border control ship has sailed

Another lockdown before Christmas will kill people and businesses in other ways. Both directly and indirectly.

If transmission is as high as its expected then other restrictions are going to be a lot less effective than before.

People are less likely to adhere to them anyway unless they believe there really is a tangible threat. You also risk unrest.

If you put in restrictions and its doesn't transpire to be an issue in the uk, you undermine measures for the future if needed.

Bottom very blunt point here is we better pray its mild cos if its not, there are going to problems that are going to get very scary. Very quickly. And measures to stop it aren't going to get very far.

True Red and it won’t just be U.K. dealing with it.

@DottyHarmer

I think the behavioural science advisers must be working round the clock. It is very difficult to balance what should be done with what people will accept, and nudging the public in the best direction must be a real headache atm. As RedToothbrush observes, the last thing we need is civil disorder.

Tbh you can see changes already

The Christmas party thread

I have some big stuff to book and I’m questioning already.

Lockdowns are what happens when you don't do NPIs when they're needed @RedToothBrush.

Such as, for instance, when a new variant is in your country in small numbers and it has plenty of mutations we already know usually spell trouble. Plus some more.

Let's not even bother with tried and tested, known to be effective NPis to slow down its spread for the next couple of weeks until we know more though.

Because a 6 month lockdown never hurt anybody.

[quote JanglyBeads]Data from SA on reinfections: not encouraging

twitter.com/miamalan/status/1466460836143239179?s=21[/quote]
A 3 fold increase though on what? What is the level of reinfection from the previous variants? 3 fold increase in itself means nothing because there is no base number

Because it looks as if around 1.2% of the cases are known reinfections reported. Which means I guess it comes down to how much stock there is on unreported cases and the belief that South Africa has reached high immunity

@PrincessNutNuts

Lockdowns are what happens when you don't do NPIs when they're needed *@RedToothBrush*.

Such as, for instance, when a new variant is in your country in small numbers and it has plenty of mutations we already know usually spell trouble. Plus some more.

Let's not even bother with tried and tested, known to be effective NPis to slow down its spread for the next couple of weeks until we know more though.

Because a 6 month lockdown never hurt anybody.

If you think zero covid is feasible with omicron in the UK which imports a sizeable proportion of its food by road then you haven't been paying attention for 2 years...

It's not all or nothing @RedToothBrush

it's not zero covid or nothing.

It's maths.

A 5% reduction in the number of contacts reduces deaths and covid chaos.

Nutty, its not about being all or nothing. Its about what the data and experience from around the world tells us.

I'm not convinced you are good at understanding that.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769

@RedToothBrush

Nutty, its not about being all or nothing. Its about what the data and experience from around the world tells us.

I'm not convinced you are good at understanding that.

Waiting for the concrete data before we act is the wrong move.

I'm not sure you understand that.

Probably 8 weeks till we get a large Omicron wave in the UK - explained here:

twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466487736177627138

@MarshaBradyo

True Red and it won’t just be U.K. dealing with it.

This.

[quote manolantern]Probably 8 weeks till we get a large Omicron wave in the UK - explained here:

twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466487736177627138[/quote]
Well that pretty much is where my guestimation was putting it. I don't know whether that makes me want to laugh or cry.

Either way, I've just been to the pub as usual. Whilst I can.

Also in the 8 week explanation is this

This is assuming rate of spread is similar across populations, which may not be the case. Population immunity differs quantitively (proportion with some immunity) and qualitatively (vaccine derived vs infection derived) across geographies. This may well impact rate of spread

So it's as clear as mud.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-has-substantial-ability-to-evade-immunity-from-previous-coronavirus-infection-12484840

I don't think this can be as mild as they say.The doctor that discovered it said it was young men presenting to a clinic with it. Since when did young men ever go to a doctor for anything unless they felt really terrible?
This^

We have been told throughout the pandemic that covid, alpha to delta, causes only mild illness in most people. We all know that to be true, we know that many people don't even know they have it but a minority of people become seriously ill. I worry that that SA doctor may come to regret saying omicron is mild because so many people have latched onto her statement which was based on a tiny sample of healthy young men.

[quote manolantern]Probably 8 weeks till we get a large Omicron wave in the UK - explained here:

twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466487736177627138[/quote]
This tweet in that thread isn't me but I second it.

@Rade

I don't think this can be as mild as they say.The doctor that discovered it said it was young men presenting to a clinic with it. Since when did young men ever go to a doctor for anything unless they felt really terrible? This^

We have been told throughout the pandemic that covid, alpha to delta, causes only mild illness in most people. We all know that to be true, we know that many people don't even know they have it but a minority of people become seriously ill. I worry that that SA doctor may come to regret saying omicron is mild because so many people have latched onto her statement which was based on a tiny sample of healthy young men.

I don't know if she had any agenda in saying it, but it has been seized upon and amplified by people who do.

Put 27th January in your diaries and place your bets...

Apparently (according to a newsletter from the Telegraph)

"No. 10 has stressed that it does not want Christmas parties to be cancelled, despite Government departments opting to do so.
...

At least 50 Norwegians have tested positive for the omicron variant of Covid-19 after attending a Christmas buffet, or Julbord, in Oslo."

I don't know if she had any agenda in saying it, but it has been seized upon and amplified by people who do.

The overall agenda of South Africa has been to say anything to discourage people from red listing them

Here's another scary thread. On the plus side, I learnt a new word today. On the downside, that word was "superexponential" :(

twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568