Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

It seems anyone claiming to have 'information' about Omicron starts with a disclaimer that they may not be correct.

Just putting it out there, this week I upped my Vitamin D intake. Glad I did if there’s a chance of reinfection ffs.

Graphs from the FT.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769?s=21

I’ve been taking vitamin d and having lots of soup and snacking on fruit.
I’ve already had covid which was fairly mild. I’m not looking forward to it again but if I do, fingers crossed that it’s mild again. What a pain.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Just putting it out there, this week I upped my Vitamin D intake. Glad I did if there’s a chance of reinfection ffs.

I think part of the problem is that because there was massive under testing in the first 6 months or so of the pandemic in the U.K. we don't know what the risk of reinfection actually was prior to Omicron. I don't know if SA were any better.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769

Hospitalisation curve not looking good.

Keep your eyes on this:

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
Final points:
1) Vax-induced immunity works differently to prior-infection, and there’s reason to believe that with a heavily mutated variant, vax may fare better due to vax-induced antibodies’ ability to bind to more parts of the virus than infxn-induced Abs. BUT don’t know yet.

And no I don't like the word superexponential. The only good thing about it is that everyone would get omicron at the same time meeting the saturation point in hospitals would hit and a fraction of people who needed it would get it whilst others would just simply die - as long as you stay over the saturation point there really is fuck all you can do but use that contingency plan for mass casualties... but it would probably also end fairly quickly too, with you either alive still or in a body bag. The exact situation that we've been trying to avoid all along.

If that does come to pass, then it perhaps suggests that lockdowns only delay the inevitable that just comes along in a later wave.

If we do see superexponential growth then yeah, you best hope and pray omicron is less severe. Because if its not, then we may yet see be bodies in mass graves in Hyde Park.

(Cheery huh?)

But we aren't there yet and we may see data which is much less scary in the coming days.

But today the information is not looking good.

@RedToothBrush if prior infection doesn’t offer much protection how soon would we likely be at risk of getting it again?

Sorry for asking as though you know that answer, I meant do you think it would be something we could catch again and again?

That graph was from the 30 Nov. His most recent post is less optimistic mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@RedToothBrush if prior infection doesn’t offer much protection how soon would we likely be at risk of getting it again?[/quote]
Well, that depends on how much the vaccine breakthrough is. This is one of the crucial magic numbers for starting to do projections for this thing.

Its a magic number that they are still trying to calculate with some urgency.

At the moment the answer is more like, "well how long is the piece of string".

Has it been mentioned that Israel said Pfizer is good against this varient?

So it spreads much faster than delta and you are much more likely to get it again whether you are vaccinated and or had it wild previously.

So the big question is how severe is the virus likely to be when you get it again? If it spreads faster than delta unless it is less severe it is going to be much worse on a population level. Unless the combo of vaccination plus wild disease from Delta that we have in eg England will confer some advantage.
As a lay person it isn’t looking good to me. This Covid virus keeps learning to spread faster and we are constantly behind it playing catch-up rather than trying to predict its next move. Except it’s next move is constantly faster spread. Now why is that?

Just reading the UK Health Security Agency report for this week.

Interesting point in it about previous variants and transmission:
There may be additional benefit, beyond that due to prevention of infection, if some of those individuals who become infected despite vaccination are also at a reduced risk of transmitting (for example, because of reduced duration or level of viral shedding).

Keep hoping.

@Incognito22333

So it spreads much faster than delta and you are much more likely to get it again whether you are vaccinated and or had it wild previously.

So the big question is how severe is the virus likely to be when you get it again? If it spreads faster than delta unless it is less severe it is going to be much worse on a population level. Unless the combo of vaccination plus wild disease from Delta that we have in eg England will confer some advantage.
As a lay person it isn’t looking good to me. This Covid virus keeps learning to spread faster and we are constantly behind it playing catch-up rather than trying to predict its next move. Except it’s next move is constantly faster spread. Now why is that?

Yes initial reports is it is spreading faster but they can't yet tell how much of that is increased R and how much is vaccine breakthrough yet.

Where the UK has to hope is that vaccines give better protection from catching it to begin with, how much they then spread it to others and then in terms of the severity if they do get it.

@Naughtynovembertree

Has it been mentioned that Israel said Pfizer is good against this varient?

Yes but it was very sketchy, just a press release built on dreams.

At least Andrew Lilico is keeping calm, and thinks the sky might not fall in after all:

mobile.twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1466479931341291530

Fast spread = reproductive success

The most successful variant will become the dominant one.

List of some scientists worth following on Twitter:

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1391136521726607362

Someone on Twitter mused that this is the fastest pressing virus in history !

[quote manolantern]List of some scientists worth following on Twitter:

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1391136521726607362[/quote]
I already follow all of them except Balloux.

But he's the best!!! :)

I'm still worried about covid
99% of FB comments are the usual "sheep/muzzles/depopulation" bollocks and around me most people seem to be returning to normal
I am still very, very restricted - food shop occasionally and go into other shops when it's quiet. No socialising and I've cancelled my Christmas Day
Vulnerable enough I had a third primary vaccine and concerned enough to try and avoid catching it still. It's been a fucking long nearly 2 years at home

I'm still worried about Covid also but the vast majority of people aren't. There are so many people on mumsnet alone saying they won't be following any new restrictions. People's poor behaviour is going to magnify the effects of omicron whatever they may be, and that's probably what concerns me the most.

I'm still worried about Covid, too. It seems madness to me that people aren't. Stay safe and well, fellow worried ones.

@NotMyCat Same here, I'm doing most shopping online and barely mixing with anyone these days... life has become a bit mundane but I feel lucky in some ways to have the luxury of being able to avoid people. We are having MIL over on Christmas Day, we are all triple jabbed and will keep a window open, but we hope to avoid wearing masks - although we might change our plans if the new variant proves to be more deadly. Worrying times but we should have better info in a couple of weeks, then maybe the advice from the govt will be updated.

I’ve been more relaxed recently because our whole family had it just before half term. Everyone I know with school aged kids has now had at least one case in their family. This was reassuring me due to antibodies.

What I find really worrying now though is there are large swathes of the population who haven’t had any prior contact to Covid. My parents and their friends - all late 70s and 80s - have not had to go to work or gone to pubs etc. Not a single one has had Covid. Colleagues at work with no children who are still working at home - none have had Covid. They are all vaccinated but I really worry that if it’s more easily transmissible, once it gets into these groups it will spread like wildfire.