New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

Good to hear the take I'm Mr Feigl-Ding I wasn't aware of his subsequent take. One wonders what Dr John's hot take is.

@RoyalMush

I’m a bit confused about how threatening this VOC is from reading the news coverage. We must become aware of new VOCs emerging very frequently. I am trying not to stress about this specific one until I understand more, but that’s hard to do.

You won't be aware of it IYSWIM because it has yet to be officially labelled a VOI, let alone a VOC.

Both of those could follow soon, depending on how the spread of the variant actually is on the ground - remember that right now the number is low despite the expectation that it could be much higher.

The politicians and travel companies appear to be taking a highly precautionary approach, which increases alarm and amount of chatter

Remember, we could have been threatened as much or more from the variant that arose in Angola (extensive and concerning variations) but it never really took hold. And that correlation des not mean causation. The sharp rise in cases in one province could of cause be a new variant, but it could also be one of he existing varieties as they all have the potential for exponential growth of that kind.

I'm should be on

@vickyc90

Was always going to happen, a vaccine that's doesn't provide complete immunity tends to drive escape variants and I'm provac due to the NHS pressures before anyone complains.

It's going to depend on whether it's any more serious to the vulnerable as to whether it's a variant of concern or just another blip. The ultimate goal of the virus would be to be highly transmissible and not fatal so this could be a move towards that.

It's all just a waiting game to see how hospital numbers play out hopefully it's just more transmissible in which case we should be able to just ignore it.

Maybe it's time we went back to Darwin

Plenty of highly vaccinated countries this variant could have come from, but it’s emerged from somewhere with low vaccination rates, so I’m not sure you can effectively argue this mutation is driven by vaccination?

The first indication of anything unusual happening here in the UK and the government has to shake off their ‘everything’s great, we’ve suggested people wear face masks even though hardly anyone does with 40k cases per day ’ head in the sand mantra immediately.

If not they’ll risk us taking several massive steps backwards.

Btw if this is as infectious as suggested, border restrictions are going to do little anyway.

Keep in mind that the data is still largely based on a country which doesn't have a high vaccine uptake and is based on a low number of cases too.

We should be concerned (thats the point of a VoC) but its not panic stations yet either.

Ps viruses also don’t have goals and I’m not sure killing off a low percentage of a huge number is particularly harmful to a virus’s survival.

Everything in the world is so crap at the moment. I despair for the future of our children and grand children. So many issues and problems fired at us every day.

Plenty of highly vaccinated countries this variant could have come from, but it’s emerged from somewhere with low vaccination rates, so I’m not sure you can effectively argue this mutation is driven by vaccination?

What's more interesting is that's it's emerging in a region with very high HIV rates.

One working theory is that the variant arose in the body of a highly immune suppressed person - just as the Kent variant arise in the body of someone on treatment for cancer.

Plenty of highly vaccinated countries this variant could have come from, but it’s emerged from somewhere with low vaccination rates, so I’m not sure you can effectively argue this mutation is driven by vaccination?

Other variants which could have evolved and been less serious but more dominant may have been surpressed elsewhere on the world... The evolution thing in a country with low uptake doesn't work in the way you think as a result.

@Walkaround

Ps viruses also don’t have goals and I’m not sure killing off a low percentage of a huge number is particularly harmful to a virus’s survival.

For this one, not at all. It is transmissible before symptoms, so it doesn't matter how or ill (or dead) it makes that host after it has moved on to the next.

Stock markets have fallen sharply over this new variant, so its probably going to be serious for us all.

Very sad that the west hasn't delivered on Covax, we need to vaccinate the world, not just small regions of it.

My gut says judging by the prompt action to ban flights by our usually slow inept government, this must be bad news

I am more inclined to think it is precautionary with the goal of avoiding a Christmas lockdown. The Tories are slumping in the approval ratings so the last thing they want is a December lockdown.

Not enough it known about this variant to know the dangers if any.

Israel has announced a case there, in a traveller from Malawi.

Since it's Greek it's pronounced "Nee" like the Knights who Say Ni from Monty Python

I want to see Boris cut down the tallest tree in the land with a Herring.

Very sad that the west hasn't delivered on Covax, we need to vaccinate the world, not just small regions of it.

Covax or not, you cannot vaccinate people who don't want to be vaccinated.

@EmpressSuiko Ive had flights booked to see my parents this Christmas, but planning as if it's not going to happen. Will cancel in a week when we get further information. (I'm a single mum with no family in the country and haven't seen them since 2019 😢)

I’m so sorry @BonneMaman15 this is all such a mess, this may have been our last opportunity to see everyone in SA and it would have been the first Christmas out there for our children.
I really hope this virus isn’t of any concern. It’s going to be very hard not to worry over the next few days/weeks but I’m still keeping my fingers crossed that we might be able to go!

@myrtleWilson

This is the quickest the UK govt have ever acted isn't it? As the Independent Sage person said earlier - if it is a false alarm and we stand down in a few weeks then fine, but if its not and we don't act we end up back where we were 2 years ago...

So... it is a positive thing that this is being taken so seriously and we're acting quickly.

1 confirmed and more suspected here, more countries placing travel bans as well

My daughter is in SA right now and was due to fly back to her EU city (where she is at university) on Monday. No idea if she can get out now, I am telling her to get on a flight today, she is telling me not to panic. Could be a real fuck up (she is a medical stident in her clinical years).

Given our slow and lacksadaisical government has reacted promptly for once, I think that is an indication of how concerning this is.

We will know a lot more in a couple of weeks and hopefully we will have over reacted, not under reacted like every other time!

@theDudesmummy

My daughter is in SA right now and was due to fly back to her EU city (where she is at university) on Monday. No idea if she can get out now, I am telling her to get on a flight today, she is telling me not to panic. Could be a real fuck up (she is a medical stident in her clinical years).

She is being a bit naive I think, I hope she gets out but I would be going sooner rather than later!!

good luck

The speed of increase in SA looks scary when you compare it to European countries who have been rising fast. The graph is log scale.

Shows how quickly they can act when they want to. Makes it even more frustrating how slow they were previously..