New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

Well if it's vaccine resistant and can outpace delta in infectivity aren't we effectively back to square one ? Just s couple of weeks ago some SAGE bod was intoning that they thought delta had probably reached towards the end of be it's possible relevant mutations. Government seems pretty concerned given their immediate action.

My gut says judging by the prompt action to ban flights by our usually slow inept government, this must be bad news. They’re not waiting it out to see what it could do because they most likely know what it’s capable of and the potential devastation an uncontrollable variant would bring to the health and financial stability of the country.

If this thing gets into the general population it could change our Covid response completely and we are back to March 2020 all over again, our vaccines ineffective against a far more transmissible variant in the thick of winter with a Covid fatigued society.

They should also be temporarily red-listing Hong Kong where there have also been cases- put that's more of a political hot-potato so they'll probably not do that.

@Thewiseoneincognito less effective, not completely. Christ.

The travel ban will be a hope to delay it taking hold until post Xmas surely?

Fingers crossed for you, EmpressSuiko!

About it being vaccine resistant: I don't think they are saying the vaccine will offer no protection at all from this new variant. But that the level of protection will be greatly reduced.

That will just mean a retweaked booster shot is rolled out in 2022 if not before.

They are worried about what it COULD mean

They don't have any evidence that its more likely to cause hospitalisation or death yet.
They don't know whether this variant has an advantage over others and will become the dominant variant.
They don't know how stable the variant is, or if all these mutations mean its likely to simply die out which has happened with some other variants that gave cause for concern when they were first found.
It takes some time after being first identified for a variant to get to a point where it becomes widespread.
It should take us just a couple of weeks to model variant specific vaccines if need be.
We have capacity to roll out manufacture of new vaccine variants quickly now.
Our problem would be more distributing those vaccines quickly.
We don't know the degree to which current vaccines would be less effective and how that could play out.
We don't know how long immunity of 3rd jabs will last
We don't know if this variant will effect certain groups more than others in a different way to the previous variants

A LOT of the concern at the moment is precisely because we have so many unknowns rather than the known information we currently have about this variant.

It is definitely still in the COULD rather that WILL to X degree column of risk.

Thats why they've decided to close the border immediately to direct flights.

The whole point is we don't know and we need time to try and establish this critical information...

My gut says judging by the prompt action to ban flights by our usually slow inept government, this must be bad news. They’re not waiting it out

My gut says they’ve learned lessons from the slow response which turned out to be a mistake last time.

It’s too soon to know, but better to err on the side of caution. Good decision, IMO.

@HeddaGarbled

My gut says judging by the prompt action to ban flights by our usually slow inept government, this must be bad news. They’re not waiting it out

My gut says they’ve learned lessons from the slow response which turned out to be a mistake last time.

It’s too soon to know, but better to err on the side of caution. Good decision, IMO.

I agree Hedda

I'm sure I read the Oxford lady, can't think of her name said the virus doesn't have any more room to mutate before it burns itself out?

I think the mrna vaccines can be tweaked quite quickly so if it's too bad hopefully they can get it out quickly.

Fingers crossed we are just being ultra cautious this time.

A retweaked booster jab seems the most sensible response.

My gut says there’s no trade deal on the table so they can afford to take this step quickly this time. Hopefully it won’t prove to be a game changing variant.

So if the government act fast it equals end of days

If they act slowly they get slated

They really can't win! (And I hate this government)

If we need a booster for the variant I'm onto jab4, I then question why when my teen is upstairs with covid climbing the walls for 3 more days as there is literally nothing wrong with her now. At best she felt drained. I've followed every rule, every vaccine, every lft. I am opposed to a 4th vaccine in less than 12 months

I wonder how long before the panic buying starts.

@bumblefeline

I'm sure I read the Oxford lady, can't think of her name said the virus doesn't have any more room to mutate before it burns itself out?

I think the mrna vaccines can be tweaked quite quickly so if it's too bad hopefully they can get it out quickly.

Fingers crossed we are just being ultra cautious this time.

Sarah Gilbert. She said

“The virus can’t completely mutate because its spike protein has to interact with the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the human cell, in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell. So there aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus.”

www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-mutate-deadlier-virus-oxford-b1925404.html%3Famp

(I have zero scientific knowledge on the accuracy of this)

@RedToothBrush if this did become an issue, in theory if the vaccines were tweaked to take this into account would we be restarting the program again or having a simple booster? Would we all need to be boosted again with the new formula?

I know it’s too soon to tell now but it could potentially impact our current trajectory massively, especially with Christmas coming it’s almost like the perfect opportunity to spread this everywhere given how dire people’s attitudes to precautions have become.

[quote 1990butfeel21]@Thewiseoneincognito less effective, not completely. Christ.

The travel ban will be a hope to delay it taking hold until post Xmas surely?[/quote]
Post winter. They don't care about people's Christmas celebrations. All they would try to do is delay it for the NHS. If we don't get to share turkey with family in order to keep the NHS off its knees, that doesn't matter to them.

@Pootle40

doublemonkey
What a load of shite.
This. Who gives an F.

Is this the cool kids' row at the back of the room?

By the time new variants have been discovered, it's more than likely spread. Far and wide.

This is what viruses do. They mutate. It's how we catch colds and it's how Norovirus keeps going round and round.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@RedToothBrush if this did become an issue, in theory if the vaccines were tweaked to take this into account would we be restarting the program again or having a simple booster? Would we all need to be boosted again with the new formula?

I know it’s too soon to tell now but it could potentially impact our current trajectory massively, especially with Christmas coming it’s almost like the perfect opportunity to spread this everywhere given how dire people’s attitudes to precautions have become.[/quote]
Booster I suspect.

The number I'm seeing thrown around is that if this variant is as bad as the worst case projection vaccines would be 40% less effective.

So I'm guessing at that point, we'd be looking at everyone getting another jab for that reason. It would be hard to see us avoid getting a booster if that 40% figure is anywhere near right.

@Gingernaut

By the time new variants have been discovered, it's more than likely spread. Far and wide.

This is what viruses do. They mutate. It's how we catch colds and it's how Norovirus keeps going round and round.

This is true. But it still takes time for new variants to be an issue.

Delta was first identified in India in October 2020. But it didn't reach a peak until April 2021. And thats in one of the most densely populated countries in the world with no restrictions at all, and a population particularly suseptible to catching covid for genetic reasons.

The conspirsloons will have a field day restrictions to infinity perpetual COVID war without end.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463956686075580421.html

Bit of useful discussion here.

@suk44

I wonder how long before the panic buying starts.

The good old fight the new variant with toilet rolls, pasta and bottled water stocks approach 🤣🤣

Except this variant has aparently appeared and spread in the past 14 days, much much faster than previous variants including Delta.