New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

@theDudesmummy

My daughter has been in contact. She was driving around in the Kruger Park FFS! So no signal.

She says the SA media are "not making a big deal" about it so she is "not that worried" as she "doesn't think it will last". I can't really do anything more for her if that is her view. I told her to go to the airport and she said she just said she will call me tonight to talk. She did say that the university just sent an email saying the last three weeks of term will be all online, because of the concerns about the new varient, so there is that I suppose. But who know how long this will last?

Ok so she isn't all that close to an international airport to be able to dash to the airport and try get on any old flight.

The media... well it depends really on which media. Some are all about being red listed. Some are congratulating our amazing scientists for being on the ball. Some are suggesting that harsher lock down is looming. We are also not quite in the loop of what is happening, but I am sure we will know more after the 'family meeting' which we suspect we will have on Sunday (Presidents address).

If we can take something positive from this..... They probably had amazing viewing in the Kruger, as the weather is quite dismal. The animals like it that way though.

Oh sorry, cross posted there Dude

She is driving back to Pretoria now, nearly there, she could go to the airport. But she will need a PCR test if she goes anywhere and that apparently takes time to arrange (so she says). So no point.

I think she is reconciled to being stuck. That may be fine and dandy now, Xmas in sunny SA, classes all online atm, but if this then becomes a longer term thing it could be a problem...nothing I can do about it now though...

I will certainly tune in for the Cyril show on Sunday...

@theDudesmummy

She is driving back to Pretoria now, nearly there, she could go to the airport. But she will need a PCR test if she goes anywhere and that apparently takes time to arrange (so she says). So no point.

I think she is reconciled to being stuck. That may be fine and dandy now, Xmas in sunny SA, classes all online atm, but if this then becomes a longer term thing it could be a problem...nothing I can do about it now though...

I will certainly tune in for the Cyril show on Sunday...

I’m surprised re the university going online

Seems a big step when it’s very early days

Well, that is what she is telling me...I was surprised too. But it is a medical school and they have previously gone fully online a few times (but only for a couple of weeks at a time, when spikes in that country have been very large). She did part of her obsterics block onine, watching babies being born on video!

It seems a few weeks will be OK, but who can say this will only be for a few weeks...

@theDudesmummy

She is driving back to Pretoria now, nearly there, she could go to the airport. But she will need a PCR test if she goes anywhere and that apparently takes time to arrange (so she says). So no point.

I think she is reconciled to being stuck. That may be fine and dandy now, Xmas in sunny SA, classes all online atm, but if this then becomes a longer term thing it could be a problem...nothing I can do about it now though...

I will certainly tune in for the Cyril show on Sunday...

There is always a ways and a means if it becomes a long term thing. If she needs to quarantine coming back home then so be it.

There was always flights going into UK all through lockdown, very limited and only for returning residents/citizens, so she probably knows this and isn't too concerned.

She may have to dip deep into el pockete though ....

That would be my pocket...

Reading the coverage on the BBC and seeing the speed in which new travel restrictions have been brought in - I’m feeling a deep sense of impending doom again

@Youngatheart00

Reading the coverage on the BBC and seeing the speed in which new travel restrictions have been brought in - I’m feeling a deep sense of impending doom again

Don’t.

Just wait for information

There’s not point in impending doom

It's not the UK she needs to get to, none of us live in the UK...and she is not a returning citizen of the country she lives in, she is a student there...not sure how this will affect things.

@Youngatheart00 I feel the same. It’s like March 2020 all over again.

Let’s just hope it’s precautionary…

I bet they will find a case in the UK before the end of the month. Because:

Dr Neil T Stacey
@NeilTStacey
The Hong Kong traveler with #B11529 tested negative on arrival, and only tested positive later during quarantine. Any country that has not been quarantining travelers from SA, and has inbound SA travel volumes in excess of Hong Kong's, probably has community transmission already
8:23 am · 26 Nov 2021·Twitter Web App

There is already a case identified in Belgium. Obviously it is already in the UK. And all over the EU. And everywhere. It will have to be dealt with, there is no way it will be contained to "hotspots" like SA.

[quote Icewiththat]@Youngatheart00 I feel the same. It’s like March 2020 all over again.

Let’s just hope it’s precautionary…[/quote]
Wasn't there loads of panic about a variant in Denmark or Sweden that ended up fizzing out? Maybe this is the same

We can hope but this does not look good

@theDudesmummy agree that it's obviously here in the UK already.

What do you mean by 'dealt with' ?

@theDudesmummy

We can hope but this does not look good

Although they had a very very low number of cases in South Africa and not much Delta, so I think that chart isn't as bad as it seems?

Something on South African testing:

neiltstacey.medium.com/how-did-south-africas-genomic-surveillance-miss-the-nu-variant-until-was-too-late-41539f405746

I have no idea what I mean by dealt with. I feel a sense of despair really, which I need to snap out of. What I meant was it cannot be ignored, we cannot pretend it is not here or that it will not cause problems. We cannot be all Febraury 2020 about it....

It’s not really possible to stop a more transmissible version spreading

It wasn’t possible in U.K. last year and won’t be if faster than delta

Just heard WHO say don’t close borders and fight it. They seem to living in a different place - its not possible to control to that extent

Having said that I’m not worried

Given the case in Belgium hasnt travelled since the 11th November and went to Egypt and Turkey one suspects it could have been around for a lot longer. The scary thing is as dudesmummy say the trajectory of being so fast but if it has been around for longer it may not be quite so bad. Coupled with a lack of increase in hospitalisations

[quote Icewiththat]@Youngatheart00 I feel the same. It’s like March 2020 all over again.

Let’s just hope it’s precautionary…[/quote]
It's not like March 2020 at all.

Governments have learned that it pays to be hyper-vigilant when a new variant occurs. The way Alpha then Delta swept the globe was a lesson in what happens when governments don't act fast. As yet, it's a precaution, no more.

There is no evidence that this variant is more deadly, or that vaccines are totally ineffective. Remember, the vaccines we have are less effective against Delta than previous variants - but they have still saved hundreds of thousands of lives and are up to 97% effective at preventing serious illness.

Don't feel doomy just yet. I know it's a little disconcerting but as has been widely reported today, it won't take us back to square one and it's not 'doomsday'.

@Quartz2208

Given the case in Belgium hasnt travelled since the 11th November and went to Egypt and Turkey one suspects it could have been around for a lot longer. The scary thing is as dudesmummy say the trajectory of being so fast but if it has been around for longer it may not be quite so bad. Coupled with a lack of increase in hospitalisations

Also it has a gene drop out we’d know with PCR pretty quickly here

So if it’s been around for a while and we haven’t then maybe better

@theDudesmummy I share your sense of despair. If this causes huge set backs then how will this ever end?

Well, if it displaces Delta as it seems to be doing in SA, and is less deadly, then that would be very welcome. Although if the transmissability is way higher than Delta that would cancel out the benefit.