It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

The uk is at a stage where we are getting more localised peaks and dips now.

The BBC article explains well why we are less risk at getting a spike than elsewhere. It boils down to how many people have been vaccinated and how many people have had covid in the last 3 months. This means our maximum worst case scenario is miles below what could happen in Germany.

Simply the pool of people vulnerable to covid in the uk is now just much smaller.

Now we are doing better than a lot of Europe: (silence)

We're not doing that much better. Still got the highest cases in Europe. A few others currently with higher daily death figures but we've been over 1000 deaths a week for a while now, others are catching up. They're also putting in some measures to slow the death toll.

@RedToothBrush

The uk is at a stage where we are getting more localised peaks and dips now.

The BBC article explains well why we are less risk at getting a spike than elsewhere. It boils down to how many people have been vaccinated and how many people have had covid in the last 3 months. This means our maximum worst case scenario is miles below what could happen in Germany.

Simply the pool of people vulnerable to covid in the uk is now just much smaller.

That seems encouraging for UK.

Is this just a repeat of spring? UK got the benefit of a quick vaccine roll out while much of Europe were slower off the mark and then got hit by the worst of the Kent variant (which had ravaged the UK from this time last year until we locked down in Jan)?

Now we've got boosters into arms of the most vulnerable. Have the EU/rest of Europe just been slow off the mark again and that's behind the current surge?

Our case numbers are still terrible but more in age groups that are going to recover and unlikely to need hospital treatment.

@2389Champ

Ironically, I think until the mask mandate was brought in in the U.K., we were actually much better at, and more aware of, social distancing. Once people had face coverings, they seemed to forget all about the 2 metre rule and consider themselves ‘covered’

Although the latest research suggests mask wearing alone is better than SD alone.

No not a repeat of spring with EU slow off the mark. Its much more complex than that.

Timing of when many in the EU got vaccinated is key - when you factor in the 12 week wait.

Say you got vaccinated in March, then your second dose in April you hit six months immunity waning in October.
In the UK it would be vaccinated in March, second dose in June which puts your immunity waning in December.

So our booster programme is being timed much better and is more on the ball

AND you are more likely to have also got a boost from virus exposure due to the higher case rate.

I think antibody levels in the over 80s are now running at 96% of all people. Thats the highest its ever been. And that is being reflected in a decline in serious cases and deaths in this age group.

This is also following in lower age groups.

The way we did our vaccinations by age is definitely helping too now.

Where the problem kicks in for the uk is in lower age groups with lower vaccine uptake and the fact I think we are likely to see a lower booster uptake for both logistical reasons (closure of clinics making accessibility harder), people expecting the gp to invite them like last time (this isnt how the booster system is working) and through misinformation that they 'don't really need it'.

But that probably an issue for the new year anyway.

The uptake of the vaccine in the over 65s in the uk is exceptionally good - this isn't the case in Germany for example. So you have a lot more people in older groups who are unvaccinated, perhaps because of the much stronger anti vax movement there or because of complacency (there a low case rate so there is no urgency to get vaccinated - i think there will be a rush to get vaccinated in this group btw).

I am staggered by the support the anti vax movement has in Germany. We simply don't have anything like that here.

It adds up to a completely different pattern of not only who has what level of immunity as of this month (and how much immunity they will have in the next six to eight weeks) but also how many in high risk groups that there are.

The uk in now allowing people to book at 5 months for an appointment at 6 months has data which means they can see how much booster uptake they are going to get between now and Christmas. Thats invaluable in being able to predict what population immunity is going to be going into the new year. It also means decision makers can see if they think this might lead to problems and act accordly.

I do think the push on boosters this week and next is interesting in that context. Its not just about serious concerns, its also about planning. I am expecting next week to be even more 'get your booster its serious. They want as many people as possible booked in this side of Christmas to mitigate the Jan / Feb pinch point we always get in the nhs.

Indeed. Germany is often considered to be a fairly sensible nation, but a lot of them have odd ideas about medicine. DP is German and his brother aged 49 simply won't countenance the vaccine. It's driving their mum potty.

@User135644 we absolutely do not have the highest case rate in Europe. You need to look number of cases versus population size. For example, 17k cases in the Netherlands today compared to 42k in the U.K. However, the U.K. has a population size which is four times bigger than the Netherlands.

@lescompagnonsdeloue
I see unfortunately France has had a huge spike in cases today too.

I actually genuinely wish that masks were the magic solution everyone thinks they are. How simple would that be? Everyone mask up and no virus. But they don’t seem to be. Cases are rising now in many countries across Europe mask mandate or not.

It’s boosters that will be key. (And not lurching in and out of lockdown)

Also it’s a worry that France has gone from 5,000ish cases on Monday to 30,000 today as that is a huge spike.

I think a lot of people that don’t want to take the vaccine in the US and Europe too are part of the “Wellness community”, yoga enthusiasts etc. I am not sure we have equivalent here ( or at least it’s not part of my world!)
So not the picture you often get of “anti Vaxers “ in the media

France always seem to have low rates on a Monday. They were averaging around 20k per day last week so that’s still about a 50% increase but not as dramatic as 5k to 30k.

@BunsyGirl ah ok.

Still 30,000 is the highest they’ve been in a long time. They’ve been low in France for months.

[quote BunsyGirl]@User135644 we absolutely do not have the highest case rate in Europe. You need to look number of cases versus population size. For example, 17k cases in the Netherlands today compared to 42k in the U.K. However, the U.K. has a population size which is four times bigger than the Netherlands.[/quote]
In terms of cases per 100,000 have a look at our world in data

ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Top of the list is Slovakia with 1850 per 100,000

Then:
Liechtenstein 1.66k
Czech Republic 1.63k
Austria 1.56k
Slovenia 1.52k
Belgium 1.36k
Netherlands 1.26k
Croatia 1.11k
Ireland 1.04k
Georgia 1.01k
Hungary 961.65
Barbados 808.36
Andorra 723.94
Denmark 668.47
Greece 652.7
Lithuania 650.27
United Kingdom 614.99
Germany 608.5

So Germany is currently lower than the UK.

BUT its not just the raw numbers that matter here, but the trend and the rate of increase.

If you highlight the highest on the list per 100,000 Slovakia with the UK and Germany you can get the idea of why the trend matters too.

Much of the EU is following the same trend to Slovakia. Certainly Germany looks to be on the same path.

The UK looks very very different to everyone else above it and that is going to matter coming into winter.

Thats why there is such concern - its about the R value not cases and what that means for the coming weeks.

What are you smoking OP?

@Delatron they have been increasing over the last few weeks. Think they have been under the radar as everyone’s been talking about Austria and Germany. Greece looks worse TBH, a really high death for their population size.

@Delatron they’ve been increasing over the last few weeks. Think they have been under the radar as everyone has been talking about Austria and Germany.

Sorry, didn’t mean to post twice!

Yes it’s been off my radar @BunsyGirl I guess the focus has been on other countries. I was wondering if any country would be an outlier in Europe and if so why.

Interesting thread. I wonder what percentage of unvaccinated people in the UK have now had and recovered from Covid? Literally all the unvaccinated people I know (admittedly less than 20) have now had and recovered from Covid

@Delatron I’ve been following Europe for months. I started in the summer in the run up to a holiday to Malta. I’m slightly obsessed with www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

The rise in cases started in Eastern Europe weeks ago (which no one seemed to take much notice of) and then it kicked off in Austria….

@Delatron

Also it’s a worry that France has gone from 5,000ish cases on Monday to 30,000 today as that is a huge spike.

I am reversing judgment on France and Italy for now. Both have comparitively low case rates - but the trend graph does make me wonder if they will start to track what is happening elsewhere in the EU.

It is too early to tell how it will go in both, but the trend graph looks like its a possibility despite the covid passport systems they have in place. How high they go per 100,000 compared to elsewhere or whether they too can buck the trend elsewhere will be interesting to see. If they stay comparitively low it will look good for them. If it goes the other way and cases start to go up very quickly, I think people there will start to ask some very hard questions about covid passport restrictions.

Jury is out still for France and Italy. Both are more vulnerable to a new Delta wave than the UK though in terms of a potential worse case scenario but not as exposed as Germany.

[quote BunsyGirl]@Delatron they have been increasing over the last few weeks. Think they have been under the radar as everyone’s been talking about Austria and Germany. Greece looks worse TBH, a really high death for their population size.[/quote]
Greece looks like its in for a particularly rough ride. It doesn't have the infrustructive to cope with a big wave, which Germany has.

But as I said upthread, Germany has bailed out a lot of EU members by taking in foreign covid patients if their own nation has had a strain on beds. They can't do that if their own citizens are filling those beds...

I feel a bit mystified as to why people think most of Europe has had huge restrictions until now and it's because we released them recently that the cases have gone up. For me summer in Europe has been mostly normal apart from continued mask wearing indoors and on public transport. Maybe an extra push to work from home. Indeed people from UK have been all over Europe on holiday. I see no real explanation why we have a huge surge e.g. in Belgium now from previously low numbers as not that much has changed.

In fact, the teens were mostly vaccinated over the summer and Flanders, which has the highest new numbers is also the place with the highest proportion vaccinated. They did let the kids stop mask wearing in schools though.

So it's the lack of masks in schools, the nightclubs reopening, or everyone suddenly not giving a shit as vaccinated and mingling indoors when the weather got colder.

@MissAmbrosia

I feel a bit mystified as to why people think most of Europe has had huge restrictions until now and it's because we released them recently that the cases have gone up. For me summer in Europe has been mostly normal apart from continued mask wearing indoors and on public transport. Maybe an extra push to work from home. Indeed people from UK have been all over Europe on holiday. I see no real explanation why we have a huge surge e.g. in Belgium now from previously low numbers as not that much has changed. In fact, the teens were mostly vaccinated over the summer and Flanders, which has the highest new numbers is also the place with the highest proportion vaccinated. They did let the kids stop mask wearing in schools though.

So it's the lack of masks in schools, the nightclubs reopening, or everyone suddenly not giving a shit as vaccinated and mingling indoors when the weather got colder.

When did nightclubs re open?

1st October I think. I am too old for these things , It was clear from the Belgian figures a few weeks back that the cases were growing predominantly in the school age kids (0-19) and the 30 - 49s (their parents) not in the 20 - 29 young adult population. Most deaths here are still the over 70s and 2/3rd of hospitalizations are unvaccinated.