It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

I agree OP

@MarshaBradyo

Going in summer - open in summer rather than autumn / winter.

It’s pretty clear he backed July 19 plus giving go ahead in cabinet

If he’s right and we avoid winter lockdown then I’ll be grateful he got it right.

Other people will say it wasn’t him I suppose

There were a number of advantages to easing restrictions in summer.

That is different to actively encouraging people to get infected in the summer.

[quote herecomesthsun]@user1497207191

The cases were going up with exponential growth very fast; they then come down really slowly.

The great thing is that we now have vaccines and boosters, so I would sincerely hope that we don't end up with that level of deaths over the winter now - or another lockdown.

Some caution might be a good idea, however. 3Cs and all that.[/quote]
Actually, cases came down pretty fast.

10/1/21 - 54,940 new cases
10/2/21 - 13,013 new cases

So after a month of "lockdown", cases fell by over 75%

To illustrate my point about lockdown lasting too long for not enough benefit.

10/3/21 - 5, 926 new cases - a fall of only 55%

The RATE of fall in infection numbers fell off sharply after a month and then basically flat lined for the next 2/3 months.

My argument is that we could have started relaxing restrictions (relaxing, not removing!) after just a month, say the start of February, to try to get to a steady rate for the Spring, rather than having a lockdown that was way too long for very little benefit, but a lot of harm.

@sashagabadon I agree, I’d take Boris any day over this, to the point that my family is looking into ways to immigrate and we are not alone in doing that.

[quote Kohby190]**@user1497207191* @MarshaBradyo* I can assure you things are not good in Australia, protesters are not “rent a mob”, they are hard working normal Australia’s that have well and truly had enough.
It’s hard to describe unless you live here but if you want an idea, search Michael Gunner NT premier who is forcing our First Nation people into quarantine camps who test positive and close contacts.
The QLD premier will start the use of vaccine passports once her state reaches 80% vaxxed but is completely open to all until then.
Jacqui Lambie had a huge rant in parliament as what can only be described as hate speech.
VIC premier Dan Andrew’s is trying to pass draconian pandemic laws that is getting huge pushback from VIC Bar (60 QC’s, human rights lawyers and lawyers) and over 100,000 protestors marching.
I’d say we had 1,000,000 people marching nationwide on the 20th November, did it make the news?
There is so much division in this country and the politicians are fueling it. It feels like an abusive relationship, we are hurting.[/quote]
So tough my family is in Aus although not Victoria

I never said masks did or would keep cases low though? Or that they prevent high delta case spikes?

So then what would have been achieved by keeping them in England? At best they would have slightly flattened the current curve - by pushing more infections into winter.

Let me just point out that here in Wales we were locked down for longer, still wearing masks our figures are higher than England population wise

Kohby190

It's awful what's happening in Australia

Many on here don't fully understand how bad it is elsewhere .

I was reading about the camps and am aware of the protests

You're right it's not publicised much- same thing here in Canada.

There's some sort of media black out going on on anything that doesn't fit the government narrative.

@MarshaBradyo

wanting people in the UK to lose all caution and get the numbers up, as some on here have suggested.

No they knew we’d retain some caution as behaviourally we had shown that and he got it right.

This ^^

Even though things are 'back to normal' the number of social interactions people are having are way below pre pandemic levels.

Many people aren't ready for it psychologically and because they still acknowledge there is a degree of risk.

To give a few examples which highlight it quite well:
A lot more people were still sat outside at restaurants and pubs well into October / November than you'd ever have seen before. Sitting outside in your coat has been normalised and will have helped stop everyone catching everything all at once.

Or the fact that normally there would be a load of big whole class children's birthday parties. My 7 year old hasn't had a single one and to my knowledge I don't think anyone has had a party with more than a few children at it since restrictions were eased.

Theres loads more places you will notice little things like that.

Its interesting how the government advice on lateral flows has changed from twice a week to before going to a high risk situation like crowds or visiting vulnerable relatives.

Behaviour for the most part is gradually normalising but at the same time the R has remained pretty stable. If you start to hear of it going up locally I do think people are thinking more carefully about what they do than they might have without the need for it to be sanctioned.

If the R had gone skywards there would be an argument to have been made on this. The fact it hasn't does show that enough people are still perhaps being more cautious than you'd initially think given a lack of mask wearing.

Christmas season and alcohol has to be the big test of that... And i do think numbers will increase in the next month. But that will also be offset by boosters and kids vaccines starting to kick in to an extent.

I saw that , what I can only describe as a “rant” by that female politician in Australia. Demanding segregation between the vaxed and un vaxed and screaming about “choice”. It was utterly unhinged and bizarre and do OTT. I would recommend anyone wondering what the path to vaccine mandates can lead to, to watch it. Boris might lose his place in a speech and like peppa pig world ( which is good actually as I’ve been twice!) but he doesn’t scream at us like that.

My relatives in Melbourne are health care professionals and they certainly are doing better in terms of their mental health than if they had remained working in the NHS here.Indeed they left the NHS because even ten years ago their mental health was suffering as a result of the pressure they were under, and it becoming certain that human lives would be lost if they continued to work under those pressures. They found the Australian healthcare system much better in terms of both patient safety and working conditions. Fed up of lockdown? , Of course, especially when the 5km limit cut them off from friends and each other but prefer to be living with the U.K. strategy? Definitely not.

Thanks @MarshaBradyo, it’s good to get it off my chest.
As much as I’m sure it’s been difficult living in the UK, at least you can say, you are on your way out of it. We in Australia are restarting, I often wish we would have never taken the zero covid approach, to me it’s just prolonged the pain. Some states would feel differently I’m sure.

What I want to know is what is the use of vaccine passports?
I had assumed it was to incentivize people but NSW is at 90% double vaxed for over 12’s and we have them for everywhere except essentials.
I am vaccinated but it’s arduous having to line up to go buy my son new shoes, I find I’m less inclined to go. We also have around 200 cases a day in my state so not running wild.
Doctors are examining patients in car parks because they won’t allow them inside but they can pop next door to the chemist to pick up their medicine. It’s insane.

My argument is that we could have started relaxing restrictions (relaxing, not removing!) after just a month, say the start of February, to try to get to a steady rate for the Spring, rather than having a lockdown that was way too long for very little benefit, but a lot of harm.

I disagree firmly with that given the numbers still in hospital at that point.

The original date in June was probably really the earliest reasonable date but that was delayed due to vaccines being delayed for about a month from the uk's original plan (and the subsequent international row about vaccines for the uk).

From France I would say no.
Family with school aged kids in the UK have had their children off school loads and loads.
Last year my children missed a fortnight, and they had distance learning (because the whole school system shut) for all that time.
We have also had fewer deaths.

Just on the Scotland etc thing, you have masks, but what masks? I saw some weird fabric things when I was last in the UK. I understand though, 50 masks in France can be bought for 2.99, I saw £5 for 10 in a Tesco, no wonder people aren't wearing them at that price.

And they aren't subsidized, that is just the supermarket price.

@ktel1
It really is getting quite scary.

I have heard Canada has a lot of the same but we don’t hear about it. We barely heard about our own protests.
What they are doing to the aboriginal people is disgusting, especially with the obvious distrust they already have, have politicians not learnt anything from history. Removing First Nation people from their villages and families will not go down well even if it is for “their own good”.

@sashagabadon unhinged described her perfectly and the UK should try very hard not to segregate it’s citizens like Australia is doing. Crazy thing is, at the start of the rollout she was very pro choice so not sure what happened.
I think the majority of people just want to be left alone, we have done what they’ve asked and still they yell and scream at us.

Ironically, I think until the mask mandate was brought in in the U.K., we were actually much better at, and more aware of, social distancing. Once people had face coverings, they seemed to forget all about the 2 metre rule and consider themselves ‘covered’

@lescompagnonsdeloue only a fortnight off school? That’s amazing. My kids had 3 months off in 2020 and 4 months off in 2021 due to lockdown and even now if they are a close contact they have to isolate for 14 days. There’s been a lot of school closures and kids off isolating, luckily mine haven’t been a close contact or gotten covid yet.
This is in NSW, Australia where at our peak we had around 1800 cases a day. Honestly, keeping them out of school for so long has been really detrimental to their learning and mental health. I hope going forward they make it that we only have to isolate if we actually have covid.

Okay, I'm glad we are all agreed then that the plan wasn't deliberately to push cases a lot higher over the summer, as I was arguing .

Results of first global study on mask efficacy - www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

"Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, according to the first global study of its kind, which found that the measure was linked to a 53% fall in the incidence of the disease"

@sashagabadon

I saw that , what I can only describe as a “rant” by that female politician in Australia. Demanding segregation between the vaxed and un vaxed and screaming about “choice”. It was utterly unhinged and bizarre and do OTT. I would recommend anyone wondering what the path to vaccine mandates can lead to, to watch it. Boris might lose his place in a speech and like peppa pig world ( which is good actually as I’ve been twice!) but he doesn’t scream at us like that.

I tried to watch it, and had to switch it off. Utter madness.

@Platax

Results of first global study on mask efficacy - www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

"Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, according to the first global study of its kind, which found that the measure was linked to a 53% fall in the incidence of the disease"

Quite a lot of people have debunked that study on Twitter. See John burn- Murdoch who is very measured in what he says. He says it’s more like 10% effect and is critical of people sharing that article.

@herecomesthsun

Okay, I'm glad we are all agreed then that the plan wasn't deliberately to push cases a lot higher over the summer, as I was arguing .

I’ve always agreed that caution was in the system and he was aware of that which was taken into account.

Where I disagree is that Whitty didn’t advise the opening July 19 - as he did.

I wouldn't count the chickens yet.
I recall the UK being a little behind us last Christmas in terms of rising numbers.
Hopefully not of course.

@EmeraldShamrock

I wouldn't count the chickens yet. I recall the UK being a little behind us last Christmas in terms of rising numbers. Hopefully not of course.

The U.K. is quite varied atm.