It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

but how can you say it’s WELL when people got ILL and DIED?” - because the thinking behind that decision was that unlocking will always cause illnesses and deaths, so better to have them coming steadily through summer and autumn rather than in a big NHS-overwhelming wave in winter.

Which is a very different position than saying that you will do your utmost to minimise the number of deaths as much as possible.
Instead in that case, you are basically saying you are happy for some people to catch covid and die. But it doesn’t matter because you avoid exposing once again the utter shamble that the NHS is. Obviously even worse when you are also trying to privatise the NHS and remove the duty to treat….

That’s a big difference of ethics between choosing to infect people during the summer and avoiding people to be infected so they dont die.

@NynaeveSedai

There is no way to know who got it right yet. Sweden with minimal restrictions? Australia with quarantine hotels? New Zealand with zero covid strategy? The US which is a free for all? The U.K.? Germany? There have been many approaches and we won't know what worked best for years. What is clear is that very little of the success we may have will been because of a planned and considered strategy. It will mostly be by mistake, with the exception of the initial vaccine rollout.

This

The irony is not lost on me of saying 'Looks like we got it right' when just a couple of months ago we were saying ' Europe has go it right'

We will need several years to pass before we will be able to properly evaluate which countries did best and which did worst and most of that success (or otherwise) will be due in large part to luck (well planned vaccine strategies aside)

That’s a big difference of ethics between choosing to infect people during the summer and avoiding people to be infected so they dont die.

But there isn’t a way to permanently avoid all infections. There isn’t. I’m sorry, it would be much better if there was, but there isn’t. Even to keep them low requires harsh measures, way beyond WFH and masks, that cause their own damages including to health.

I’m not happy for people to catch covid and die personally but nor do I think every infection is something the government could prevent cost-free simply by clicking its fingers.

NRTFT. Given the high numbers of people who have already lost their lives to covid, the strategy was wrong from the beginning.

@PerfectlyUnsuitable

but how can you say it’s WELL when people got ILL and DIED?” - because the thinking behind that decision was that unlocking will always cause illnesses and deaths, so better to have them coming steadily through summer and autumn rather than in a big NHS-overwhelming wave in winter.

Which is a very different position than saying that you will do your utmost to minimise the number of deaths as much as possible.
Instead in that case, you are basically saying you are happy for some people to catch covid and die. But it doesn’t matter because you avoid exposing once again the utter shamble that the NHS is. Obviously even worse when you are also trying to privatise the NHS and remove the duty to treat….

That’s a big difference of ethics between choosing to infect people during the summer and avoiding people to be infected so they dont die.

The trouble is other health systems can’t cope with onslaught either which is why a winter peak means lockdowns for some countries

If they could deal with it it’s different but the winter peak hitting means the huge hardship of lockdown - most want to avoid it

We are now mid-table at best. Of course, this means we are world-beating.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Is it just me or something doesn’t feel right with this sudden surge of cases in Europe? The reaction and concern coming from the leaders and WHO doesn’t feel quite right, almost like they expected a different situation.

BJ mentioned the storm clouds forming on the continent the other week, was that a hint?

No need for a "hint". Each country publishes it's own covid numbers which have been rising all over Europe over the past few weeks. Boris was just stating the blindingly obvious to anyone who looks at the figures.

Covid deaths aren’t the only pertinent measure. It doesn’t appear to me that our handling has been exemplary when waiting lists have skyrocketed, mental health referrals also (including in groups not at risk from covid) and excess deaths from non covid causes are roughly the same as covid deaths. How are all those things going in Europe? There a lot of evidence emerging of all the many harms to physical and mental health cause by the pandemic handling. Any mention of them seems to provoke some people into an argument regarding having no covid prevention measures but that’s not really what it’s about. If we’d acted differently could we have a healthier population and the same or less covid deaths? The strategy is only a success if both are minimised. I’d be really interested to know about experiences from other countries because we don’t hear about them here, only perceived failures so that we can justify being right!

@sourcherie

Is it really overly critical to conclude the British government hasn’t been world-beating in its handling of the pandemic?

That graph is too simple. It just shows number of deaths, and makes no mention of the actual population of each country. Any country with a higher population is likely to have a higher number of deaths. The countries with low populations, will have low numbers.

Do you have a similar graph showing deaths as a percentage/proportion of total population for each country???

It doesn’t appear to me that our handling has been exemplary when waiting lists have skyrocketed, mental health referrals also (including in groups not at risk from covid) and excess deaths from non covid causes are roughly the same as covid deaths. How are all those things going in Europe? There a lot of evidence emerging of all the many harms to physical and mental health cause by the pandemic handling

Exactly this. And other things like the adverse impact on education.

@GoldenOmber

That’s a big difference of ethics between choosing to infect people during the summer and avoiding people to be infected so they dont die.

But there isn’t a way to permanently avoid all infections. There isn’t. I’m sorry, it would be much better if there was, but there isn’t. Even to keep them low requires harsh measures, way beyond WFH and masks, that cause their own damages including to health.

I’m not happy for people to catch covid and die personally but nor do I think every infection is something the government could prevent cost-free simply by clicking its fingers.

How do you know that there wasn’t an alternative? That’s what we’ve been fed but actually, I doubt it is the truth.

We let it get out of control in 2020 and it was then too late to deal with it.

Would things be done the same again with hindsight??

I doubt it.

We let it get out of control in 2020 and it was then too late to deal with it

we did , but I don't that was the issue. It was well under control in the summer of 2020. I think the key problem has been the more virulent variants.

@BungleandGeorge

Covid deaths aren’t the only pertinent measure. It doesn’t appear to me that our handling has been exemplary when waiting lists have skyrocketed, mental health referrals also (including in groups not at risk from covid) and excess deaths from non covid causes are roughly the same as covid deaths. How are all those things going in Europe? There a lot of evidence emerging of all the many harms to physical and mental health cause by the pandemic handling. Any mention of them seems to provoke some people into an argument regarding having no covid prevention measures but that’s not really what it’s about. If we’d acted differently could we have a healthier population and the same or less covid deaths? The strategy is only a success if both are minimised. I’d be really interested to know about experiences from other countries because we don’t hear about them here, only perceived failures so that we can justify being right!

Yes which is why another lock down this winter will be hugely harmful and why protests and riots are emerging in various countries.

Deaths don’t have to be high at all for damage, if you see Melbourne had longest lockdown at one point and same issues with mh / education loss surfaced

It’s Covid that’s to blame, let’s not lose sight of that! Throwing blame around isn’t helpful. Every country affected, has had many deaths and harm to citizens in several ways.

Do you have a similar graph showing deaths as a percentage/proportion of total population for each country???

Excess deaths is a better measure - Italy, Spain, US, Portugal are higher, and others

Link here www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

I’d be really interested to know about experiences from other countries because we don’t hear about them here, only perceived failures so that we can justify being right!

We do hear about them here if we are listening!

I am particularly interested in how Asia and Australia are faring because I have friends and family there I am desperate to see. Australia just opened up quarantine free entry to all vaccinated citizens, students and business travellers and is creating travel bubbles with New Zealand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea.

I wonder when the Aussies will consider our Covid strategy to be such a success that they open up to us travelling there (and I get to cuddle the newest member of my family? Seems very likely to be beyond 2022 as their politicians have warned and given all I can do is knit I will need patterns for age 2/3 years….

Just a reminder:

1. It is really a bit silly to rant on about the UK / Boris Johnson's handling of the pandemic - remember devolution? There have been different approaches taken by the leaders of the four nations (all from different political parties) and we've all ended up in quite similar positions.
2. Right from the beginning of the pandemic, the scientists explained the importance of flattening the curve - that doesn't mean reducing the number of people who are going to get covid. It means making sure people don't get it all at once because that would overwhelm the NHS (and also allow enough time for treatments and vaccines to be developed so that those infected faced a better outcome). Not sure why people think the strategy here, in Europe, the US etc was ever to eliminate the virus. It wasn't - it was about flattening the curve. What is concerning about Europe isn't necessarily number of cases it is the shape of the line on the graph. Really surprised people are still struggling with this as a concept.

@MrsLargeEmbodied

they have a slight rise in south korea and the children are back to home learning, masks all the time, even outdoors.

Home learning is not a good thing for most children.

The research coming out of Australia on the mental health impacts of the Victoria lockdown is far from conclusive that the impact of lockdown is worse than letting the virus run as it is doing in the U.K. It seems as if lockdown exacerbated existing trends and caused a spike but then the existing trends reasserted themselves. Being at risk or having Covid as a result of the high case numbers we have experienced here over nearly two years also leads to mental health problems, disruption to education etc. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2021/sep/03/is-there-a-mental-health-crisis-what-australian-data-reveals-about-impact-of-covid-lockdowns

[quote Emilyontmoor]The research coming out of Australia on the mental health impacts of the Victoria lockdown is far from conclusive that the impact of lockdown is worse than letting the virus run as it is doing in the U.K. It seems as if lockdown exacerbated existing trends and caused a spike but then the existing trends reasserted themselves. Being at risk or having Covid as a result of the high case numbers we have experienced here over nearly two years also leads to mental health problems, disruption to education etc. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2021/sep/03/is-there-a-mental-health-crisis-what-australian-data-reveals-about-impact-of-covid-lockdowns[/quote]
Of course deaths / cases and lockdown is worse but if people think we could do the same I’d suggest rethink for obvious reasons.

From friends they’ve sounded as fed up as I have with Melbourne situation whereas Covid free state with no lockdown sound pre pandemic nearly about it all. Understandably.

Also protests and riots are a good indication too of public mood.

@Patrickthefox

Just a reminder:

1. It is really a bit silly to rant on about the UK / Boris Johnson's handling of the pandemic - remember devolution? There have been different approaches taken by the leaders of the four nations (all from different political parties) and we've all ended up in quite similar positions.
2. Right from the beginning of the pandemic, the scientists explained the importance of flattening the curve - that doesn't mean reducing the number of people who are going to get covid. It means making sure people don't get it all at once because that would overwhelm the NHS (and also allow enough time for treatments and vaccines to be developed so that those infected faced a better outcome). Not sure why people think the strategy here, in Europe, the US etc was ever to eliminate the virus. It wasn't - it was about flattening the curve. What is concerning about Europe isn't necessarily number of cases it is the shape of the line on the graph. Really surprised people are still struggling with this as a concept.

Exactly this.

[quote Chessie678]@ancientgran
Part of the point of furlough was to ensure that businesses survived and were therefore around at the end of lockdown to provide viable employment. Let's say there was no furlough and you run a hotel. Your reception staff, chef, housekeeping, waitressing staff etc. all become redundant when hotels are shut. You can't afford to pay them for an indefinite period of time with no money coming in. As the hotel owner, you would have to pay redundancy pay unless the government subsidised this or allowed you not to pay it. This in itself may make you insolvent, particularly when combined with having to refund customers etc..

Your staff go onto job seekers and probably try to find other jobs (some will probably be successful but some won't be).

At that point a large part of your business has been destroyed - you don't have any staff so can't reopen easily even when restrictions are eased and certainly not on a few days notice.

If you still want to run a hotel business, you would wait until you were absolutely sure hotels could reopen long-term and be profitable because you don't want to find a whole new staff team, train them and then have to make them all redundant again. You are very unlikely to be able to hire exactly the same team back because people are going to have found new employment where they can or decided they don't want to work for you any more.

You may well decide, in that position, to sell off your hotel to be converted into housing. All the jobs in that hotel are then lost.

If you work through that scenario with other businesses across the economy as a whole, you can see how no furlough would have led to millions of job losses.

There may have been a different way to set up the scheme which would have worked better or been less expensive but I think it was one of the things we got right overall.[/quote]
Or you could put them on unpaid leave, keep their jobs open and they claim benefits or get temporary jobs.

I live in a seaside town so the hotel, or hospitality, industry is very relevant. It seems like lots took the furlough, got other jobs and now some have gone back to their previous jobs and some have decided not to. Locally I know businesses that opened in the summer, students kept them going, but some are now on reduced opening hours or have closed down because they just can't get staff. I've been shopping this morning and it is no exaggeration to say that more than 50% of businesses are recruiting. GS and his friends are loving it, they are getting jobs for after school/weekends and basically picking their hours and getting NMW for an adult not 16 year olds.

I can assure you that hotels and restaurants did open really quickly when lockdown eased even though many staff had gone on to other things or returned to their home countries. It is really obvious that many of the Poles/Czechs/Bulgarians are no longer here.

I just can't see how that has helped except that some people must have done very well with 80% pay plus a new job. Meanwhile others through no fault of their own just got UC.

Businesses have had support to keep going.

Maybe it is different in other areas but down here I don't think it was right, I feel lots of families struggled so much and the money could have been spread out to help far more people.

@MarshaBradyo

Also protests and riots are a good indication too of public mood.

I don't think they are really. A lot seem to be the usual "rent a mob" who just pile into the latest "cause" to have a day out and a bit of "fun".

Yes, they'll get a bit of publicity, a few minutes in the TV news etc., but soon forgotten, unless they are "proper" riots with lots of damage, injuries, etc that get a lot more media attention.

User I’ll have to disagree.

It might seem easy to keep suppressing and controlling a population with lockdowns or restrictions but when you reach kick back it’s not good.

Patrick good post.