Why are things ' kicking off ' in Europe ?

[genuinequestion21]

Please excuse my ignorance. But why is Germany for example stressing so much about covid right now ?

I think we have more cases per 100 k than them and have been having high cases for months and we are still open and not ' that much ' talk about lockdown etc. It seems we are kind of just about ' OK '. Well at least we aren't going to plan B yet.

However in Germany there have been few cases and cases are now exploding and there's talk of lock downs etc.

Hospitals also seem to be full again. Whereas in the UK, they don't seem to be on the brink.

Why these differences ? Germany and UK have a very similar proportion of the population vaccinated. Is it because cases are seeming to go up very rapidly, whereas ours have been high but flat for ages ?

Why are their hospitals full again and ours are not ?

Please correct any factual information which is incorrect.

@Havanananana

Surely it's more like the experts had better be right?

It requires both the experts and the government to make the right decisions. The government does not have a good record on listening to the experts, and has a very vocal faction that prioritises the economy over the health of the nation.

What are the UK experts saying now about the situation in Germany/Austria versus the UK and what is likely to happen in the UK over the next few weeks? Do the experts believe the UK is at the base of an exponential growth curve?

@Havanananana

This graph neatly shows what is happening.

The UK infection rate has been up to 5 times higher than many other countries throughout the summer, with hospitals under great strain for the last six months or more. Full ICUs, overloaded A&E departments and 5 million people on the NHS waiting list seem to have been accepted as "business as usual" in the UK. What is happening now is that the other countries are experiencing a sudden, largely unexpected surge in cases, and are doing something drastic about it.

Why the cases have risen so sharply is a matter that is being debated. It seems to be a combination of the vaccination rate stalling at around 65%, the vaccinations themselves being less effective for some people after 4-6 months, a change in lifestyle as people move from outdoor summer activities to indoor activities, perhaps a case of people dropping their guard after a relatively Covid-free summer and a whole list of further possible reasons.

What is clear is that unvaccinated people are far more likely to become infected, to need hospital treatment and require ICU care - hence the campaigns to get more people vaccinated and the proposed lockdowns.

The UK government seems to think that the country has already experienced the 4th wave - i.e. the high rate throughout the last 6 months - and that cases will not rise suddenly and rapidly in the same way that they are doing in Europe. Johnson had better be right, because if he is wrong, the impact will be devastating.

The graph only shows comparisons between reported cases. The true picture could be vastly different if testing varies significantly between countries. We need to see comparative data showing a breakdown of testing rates in each country.

@Delatron

I would welcome a report every day on total deaths from all causes. Then we may get a sense of perspective.

It's weekly and by date of death certificate

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

I don't think that's what brings perspective though. It's the excess death figures which do that

@ravenmum

Isn't the point of prioritising Covid that you can't pass a heart attack on to all your colleagues at work?

So it's OK that someone dies of a heart attack because their health monitoring wasn't carried out because of Covid, or that they die of cancer because by the time the lump was investigated it was too late because of Covid, or commits suicide because they lost their business because of Covid and the current backlog for mental health referrals is huge because of Covid?

But hey, they didn't die of Covid and they weren't able to transmit their cause of death

“We need to see comparative data showing a breakdown of testing rates in each country”.

Last I looked the UK is 10th best in the world for testing rates. Worldometers has the stats for each country.

@UnmentionedElephantDildo I know the information is out there but its not reported in the media. So the general public don’t really have that point of comparison and all we hear day after day is how many cases and deaths from this one virus.

I think it would bring perspective to be honest and make people realise that far more people die of other causes. But obviously that doesn’t make headline news.

I’m glad we’ve moved away from Covid as headline news

Given we’ve been steady for so long there’s not much to say plus it was a tool for compliance mostly

Although as I post I did hear cases down in England from ONS

Also some long term perspective would be good. Our children largely suffer a mild illness (yes there are exceptions) I have an asymptomatic kid at home now. Plus half his class have it and they have no symptoms either...

But we now have stored up a huge obesity crisis. Which will have a far greater impact on our children’s lives and the NHS in years to come.

So it's OK that someone dies of a heart attack
Are you asking me if that is my opinion, @GrannyWeatherwaxsHatpin ?
Why?

@SecretKeeper1 Thank you. Those differences in testing rates speak volumes.

The testing rates are cumulative - i.e. since the pandemic began - and the UK has indeed tested far more per million than most other countries.

But other key measures are deaths per 100,000 and ICU capacity and here the UK fares far worse. As it also does with hospital waiting times and as people are also pointing out, deaths caused because the NHS is overwhelmed.

Over 5 million people on waiting lists in England - over 10% of the population. People waiting 13 hours for an ambulance and others dying or suffering in pain while waiting to be admitted to A&E. Only in the UK do people seem to accept this as somehow being "business as usual." Elsewhere in Europe this would result in Health Ministers and governments being thrown out on their arses.

13 hours wait for an ambulance is an extreme, and the headlines report extremes. One of my neighbours called an ambulance last week and it was here in under 10 minutes.

I’m not saying there isn’t a problem, but let’s not start thinking all ambulances will take hours.

@ravenmum

So it's OK that someone dies of a heart attack Are you asking me if that is my opinion, *@GrannyWeatherwaxsHatpin* ? Why?

It's a generic question, in response to your post as part of a discussion on a discussion board. Why else would you join in a discussion and pose a question if you don't want to discuss or have an opinion expressed on your question?

The German test figures quoted on worldometers are for PCR tests only.
The UK ones appear to be for PCR, antibody and lateral flow tests?
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

You misunderstand my question, @GrannyWeatherwaxsHatpin
You asked me if I thought it's OK that someone dies of a heart attack. I just wondered why you asked me that. Did it sound likely from my comment? Curious as to why you asked such a rude question.

You asked me if I thought it's OK that someone dies of a heart attack. I just wondered why you asked me that. Did it sound likely from my comment? Curious as to why you asked such a rude question.

It's not a rude question at all, it's a largely rhetorical one since - fairly obviously - no-one actually thinks it's OK that someone dies from a heart attack. And I'm not specifically asking you, it's a general question as part of discussion where I'm questioning the rationality of 'prioritising' one cause of death over another.

You asked me directly, so it was very hard to tell you were being rhetorical. Maybe make that clearer next time, to avoid being perceived as rude.

For those saying Europe isn’t even capable of organising a vaccination programme… my German university has just offered third doses (not boosters!) to everyone, there are appointments in Dec and Jan. Staff AND students.

@EileenGC

For those saying Europe isn’t even capable of organising a vaccination programme… my German university has just offered third doses (not boosters!) to everyone, there are appointments in Dec and Jan. Staff AND students.

What's the difference between a third dose and a booster?

Here in Saxony there have been queues of up to 6 hours for the boosters, with people standing out in the cold on the street, as the big vaccination centres were shut, and the staff at the little places can't get the shots in arms any faster.

In Germany they’re the same - especially now that they’re offering it to every age group, regardless of your immune condition.

It’s good there were queues - that means a lot of people are rushing to get extra protection now. Hopefully they will reopen some of the bigger centres, there are talks of doing that soon in my state.

@leotardrock

Because our Govt are ignoring it and pretending it's gone away! Our unlocking was 'irreversible' if you remember, they are not going to increase restrictions no matter how bad it gets!

Letting 1000 plus people per week die from it is acceptable to the Govt and the British public - Germany not so much!

What do you expect them to do? Another lockdown? Print money to pay people sitting at home doing nothing again? The hospitals are not full with Covid patients, admission numbers are dropping. It amazes me how people love being locked up. I will just ignore any restrictions anyway and a lot of other people will too.

ONS just announced Covid figures dropped again this week from 1 in 60 to 1 in 65.

I really hope this trend continues and our strategy pays off.

I agree about the obesity (chronic low activity really, you can be skinny and inactivity) being a huge public health problem.
Alcohol deaths up in Scotland.

Did anyone say there hadn't been a good vaccination program in Germany? I just was wondering if there was a diffetence in the age profile of who was taking up jabs. All the countries have managed to roll out a big program. Persuading people to participate is another layer again.

I don't have a competitive mindset when it comes to deaths or any "patriotic" feelings about it but I do have curiosity about what has worked, what we could do better, what we might do in future crises.

It’s amazing how quickly these threads descend into everyone yelling at each other! I really dont understand it, other than that everyone is tired and anxious by now.

Third doses are boosters - it’s the same thing, just a difference in terminology. No government is trying to f*ck this up (even ours).

It’s all quite frightening and sad and we all wish it hadn’t happened. Above all, it really isn’t a competition or a way of validating world views - it’s just a really really complex problem.

It’s possible that the French approach will work but it also might not if waning immunity is a real thing. It’s possible that the uk approach might work but not if it doesn’t stop exponential growth kicking in at some point. The problem is that we just don’t know at this stage so we just have to deal with that uncertainty. Which feels horrible to be honest.