Why are things ' kicking off ' in Europe ?

[genuinequestion21]

Please excuse my ignorance. But why is Germany for example stressing so much about covid right now ?

I think we have more cases per 100 k than them and have been having high cases for months and we are still open and not ' that much ' talk about lockdown etc. It seems we are kind of just about ' OK '. Well at least we aren't going to plan B yet.

However in Germany there have been few cases and cases are now exploding and there's talk of lock downs etc.

Hospitals also seem to be full again. Whereas in the UK, they don't seem to be on the brink.

Why these differences ? Germany and UK have a very similar proportion of the population vaccinated. Is it because cases are seeming to go up very rapidly, whereas ours have been high but flat for ages ?

Why are their hospitals full again and ours are not ?

Please correct any factual information which is incorrect.

I doubt there’s an issue with testing we’re all doing loads and rates are high compared to other countries

It’s not useful to imply it’s not factual

Austria has one of the best health services in the world maybe they think it's worth preserving. They have 4.7 doctors per 1000 people ours is 3.0

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Austria

This graph neatly shows what is happening.

The UK infection rate has been up to 5 times higher than many other countries throughout the summer, with hospitals under great strain for the last six months or more. Full ICUs, overloaded A&E departments and 5 million people on the NHS waiting list seem to have been accepted as "business as usual" in the UK. What is happening now is that the other countries are experiencing a sudden, largely unexpected surge in cases, and are doing something drastic about it.

Why the cases have risen so sharply is a matter that is being debated. It seems to be a combination of the vaccination rate stalling at around 65%, the vaccinations themselves being less effective for some people after 4-6 months, a change in lifestyle as people move from outdoor summer activities to indoor activities, perhaps a case of people dropping their guard after a relatively Covid-free summer and a whole list of further possible reasons.

What is clear is that unvaccinated people are far more likely to become infected, to need hospital treatment and require ICU care - hence the campaigns to get more people vaccinated and the proposed lockdowns.

The UK government seems to think that the country has already experienced the 4th wave - i.e. the high rate throughout the last 6 months - and that cases will not rise suddenly and rapidly in the same way that they are doing in Europe. Johnson had better be right, because if he is wrong, the impact will be devastating.

Maybe they just care more about the 200ish people dying a die than the U.K. seems to.

Or maybe there is a wider context to be considered.

On average, 450 people die every day of cancer. 460 people die of heart disease. 17 will take their own life. And that's just the current stats I found a while back - by how much will those figures have increased because of Covid? Why is a Covid death more worthy of avoiding than a heart attack?

And that's not to touch on the other issue, which is that there are other considerations: mental health, education, the economy and so on. I'm not saying Covid deaths don't matter but there has to be a balance rather than a "Nothing matters but Covid" approach.

Much as it pains me to say it as someone who is very much not a Tory supporter, but I think the government might just have called this right.

@Alondra did you actually look at the link I sent you? Due to the difference in population sizes it is pointless looking at the case rates on Worldometer. You need to look at the rates per 100,000. As of yesterday Austria had a case rate if 947 per 100,000. The UK’s case rate was 405. As I said, more than double. I am not the one misinterpreting the facts. You are:
www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

The UK government seems to think that the country has already experienced the 4th wave - i.e. the high rate throughout the last 6 months - and that cases will not rise suddenly and rapidly in the same way that they are doing in Europe. Johnson had better be right, because if he is wrong, the impact will be devastating.

I'm buggered if I can find the article, but I've seen SAGE scientists quoted in the Graun (I think it was last weekend) saying the same thing.

@HarrietPierce I have given the facts on more than one occasion on this thread. But facts are irrelevant for you. It’s all about the politics.

You’d really think by this stage in the pandemic people would know to look at case rates per 1000 rather than absolute numbers. Though why we are still so focused on cases I don’t know.

I welcome the news that hopefully in April we’ll stop testing.

I think there is a difference between saying that testing doesnt pick up all the cases (for whatever reasons) which is a problem across all countries, driven in part by asymptomatic infection.

And implying that the UK Gvt massages figures. WHich I think with the sheer numbers of LFT tests people take and word of mouth plus hospitalisations and deaths would be difficult to do.

Plus our case fatality rate currently is in line with the rest of the world indeed at 1.47% is less than Germany at 1.87 and France at 1.60
ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-covid-19-vs-case-fatality-rate?tab=table&time=2020-05-11..2021-11-18&country=GBR~ITA~DEU~ESP~AUT~BEL~NLD

Case numbers are unreported but that is across the board.

Despite having a significantly larger population than us (Germany 83.7 million, UK 67.2 million) Germany has a much lower total covid deaths (Germany 98,751 and UK over 144,000). Maybe it’s different priorities.

The UK government seems to think that the country has already experienced the 4th wave - i.e. the high rate throughout the last 6 months - and that cases will not rise suddenly and rapidly in the same way that they are doing in Europe. Johnson had better be right, because if he is wrong, the impact will be devastating.

Surely it's more like the experts had better be right?

Unless that data is incorrect, UK is at 74 percent vaccinated vs Germany at 70 percent vaccinated
I'm in Saxony, where the rate is 57% and not rising fast any time soon, as this is the state with the most scepticism towards vaccination, even among the older population: there have been relatively few cases so far, so people have not developed a fear. We have never had such a strict lockdown as in the UK, so people did not feel quite as afraid, or as under pressure to get vaccinated. So the place has a load of old, unvaccinated people just waiting to catch Covid, like in the first UK wave - except with Delta. Carers are also often unvaccinated. At the same time, people have been subject to some restrictions for two years, and are fed up to the back teeth with them, so more likely to ignore warnings. And cases plummeted in the summer, so we all thought Covid was more or less over and started meeting up with our friends again.

Until last month, I knew just one person who had had Covid, in another state. In the last two weeks the people around me have started getting it.

Surely it's more like the experts had better be right?

It requires both the experts and the government to make the right decisions. The government does not have a good record on listening to the experts, and has a very vocal faction that prioritises the economy over the health of the nation.

I’m pretty sure Boris is not acting alone here. He is advised by medical advisors and scientists. Thank goodness, as I’m no fan

@Incognito22333

I want to know what Austria means by “mandatory” vaccination. Western democracies cannot enforce mandatory vaccinations. Yes you could lose your job, pay a fine in theory, even have your benefits cut but surely they are not going to lock people up in prison and jab them forcibly being restrained at the same time. So what tools do they actually have for mandatory vaccination?

I have said it on another thread. If a government wants to up vaccination then they need to use incentives. Free meals out/theatre tickets etc etc 2 weeks after 2nd jab - support the industries that need it or garden centres etc. There is so much which could be done. Why not do something positive rather than negative. It just creates more hatred and distrust amongst groups who are already sceptical of the government for whatever reason. Identify the relevant groups and incentivise them accordingly (for example, ski passes for youngsters in Austria).Governments need to talk to the relevant groups in their own language as they are fighting against social media algorithms.

As of February, all Austrians will have to be vaccinated unless there are medical reasons not to do so, or face high fines or (if you do not pay) imprisonment.

*On average, 450 people die every day of cancer. 460 people die of heart disease. 17 will take their own life. And that's just the current stats I found a while back - by how much will those figures have increased because of Covid? Why is a Covid death more worthy of avoiding than a heart attack?

^^ this.

A 27 year old woman from Stevenage made the news this week. She died of cancer after desperately struggling to see her GP face-to-face for months. The telephone appointments quite obviously didn't diagnose her cancer and she has died. The prioritisation of this one virus over everything else must stop.

CMO went with this so I’m backing him and other experts

We have taken decisions against the grain (vaccine / data related) which proved to be correct so hope so on this one

I would argue the economy and the health of the nation are pretty linked.

Shocking how much child obesity has risen throughout all the lockdowns.

I would welcome a report every day on total deaths from all causes. Then we may get a sense of perspective.

@Havanananana

This graph neatly shows what is happening.

The UK infection rate has been up to 5 times higher than many other countries throughout the summer, with hospitals under great strain for the last six months or more. Full ICUs, overloaded A&E departments and 5 million people on the NHS waiting list seem to have been accepted as "business as usual" in the UK. What is happening now is that the other countries are experiencing a sudden, largely unexpected surge in cases, and are doing something drastic about it.

Why the cases have risen so sharply is a matter that is being debated. It seems to be a combination of the vaccination rate stalling at around 65%, the vaccinations themselves being less effective for some people after 4-6 months, a change in lifestyle as people move from outdoor summer activities to indoor activities, perhaps a case of people dropping their guard after a relatively Covid-free summer and a whole list of further possible reasons.

What is clear is that unvaccinated people are far more likely to become infected, to need hospital treatment and require ICU care - hence the campaigns to get more people vaccinated and the proposed lockdowns.

The UK government seems to think that the country has already experienced the 4th wave - i.e. the high rate throughout the last 6 months - and that cases will not rise suddenly and rapidly in the same way that they are doing in Europe. Johnson had better be right, because if he is wrong, the impact will be devastating.

The UK has not experienced the 4th wave if we go back to what happened last year with the 1st wave in Europe.'

Italy and Spain were the first hit. By the time the UK was hit it was couple of months. A couple of months when nothing was done by your government. They made political decisions instead of listening to medical advice.

And here we are again. With winter and close proximity cases are sky rocketing. Vaccination has done wonders in the world to prevent deaths and infections, yes the vaccine does prevent infection, but it's not enough with the Delta variant. Time and again epidemiologists keep saying that with this variant we need a minimum of 80% total population vaccination rate to begin controlling the virus, and then to have boosters when the immunity wears off.

But nobody is listening. The only countries in Europe who are controlling the virus without lockdowns and which their populations are enjoying life with few restrictions are Portugal, Spain and Italy precisely because they are the countries with highest vaccine populations at 80% over 12s.

Considering that Johnson is a complete incompetent more worried about himself, perks for his mates and his political party, the lack of action about the number of cases in the UK can be devastating.

The UK is currently the 19th worst country out of 47 in Europe for deaths per million, and we are likely to be overtaken by some of the central European countries if their death rates keep climbing and ours keep falling. So, very much middle ground.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Isn't the point of prioritising Covid that you can't pass a heart attack on to all your colleagues at work?

which have enjoyed lockdowns since the first wave

Time and again epidemiologists keep saying that with this variant we need a minimum of 80% total population vaccination rate to begin controlling the virus, and then to have boosters when the immunity wears off.

We need boosters and there is a drive here for that. But you should also should factor in post infection immunity for full picture over winter period.