Covid Child Mortality

[Warhertisuff]

A horrible topic I know, but one which parents have a right to be informed accurately about.

I've read that over 100 children have now died of Covid in the U.K. However, that doesn't seem to square with the stats I can find. The ONS data below suggests that there have been 14 deaths of children under 14 since February, and 4 school aged children under 14 since the start of autumn term. I appreciate the pandemic has been here since before last February but even so.... especially since infections in schools have only really skyrocketed
since summer half term and through into this term.

Obviously all child deaths are tragic, but in order to determine our response, we need to know whether deaths are as prevalent as other diseases such as meningitis or other causes such as traffic accidents, or whether we are talking another level of magnitude.

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1470/age/wrapper/datadownload.xlsx

It doesn’t then mean that you just accept those deaths and do nothing to prevent them.

But we do take that attitude. Those death numbers are after the treatments & flu vaccines. We still accept them. Covid has resulted in fewer deaths in children, mainly children with underlying conditions, and those children are now eligible for the vaccine so that number should reduce. Sadly though, we won’t be able to stop every death so, ‘distasteful’ as it seems, we will accept that there will be some deaths from covid every year.

But the truth is, whatever you say, we are not doing everything we can to stop the spread among children.
We don't even use the simple measure like masks to to spread of covid in schools.
So how can you say that we can't stop every death, when a lot of them could be preventable?
I do wonder. The parents of children who have health issue are quite clued up. I do pay attention, my dc wear masks, he is vaccinated, though it's only one dose.
But those unexpected parents who never thought that their children will have unexpected outcomes, because of false pretence that children won't suffer, may have really unexpected consequences. But it shouldn't happen, really.

If “we” are accepting deaths, then why has the flu vaccination programme recently been expanded to include more age groups, and why has the monoclonal antibody treatment for RSV been expanded this year?

As flu and RSV have been artificially lowered due to mitigations over the last year, they’re expected to hit harder, so steps have been taken to mitigate their effect. Whereas all mitigations bar the vaccine have been removed for children (and the vaccine rollout is late and slow and has missed the chance to make the most impact. And, importantly, under 12s still have no protection) when it comes to covid.

It’s not balanced is it? We accept that there are a small number of deaths with flu in children, and vaccinate that age group.

We accept that there are a small number of deaths with covid in children, and.. well, do nothing because you can’t prevent all deaths.

Why do people bother vaccinating their children against flu if not all deaths are preventable?

This mindset of not giving every child the best chance is what comes across as distasteful.

We accept that there are a small number of deaths with covid in children, and.. well, do nothing because you can’t prevent all deaths.

We’re not doing nothing. The most vulnerable children have been eligible for the vaccine since the summer.

^But the truth is, whatever you say, we are not doing everything we can to stop the spread among children.
We don't even use the simple measure like masks to to spread of covid in schools.^

We’ve never used masks to prevent the spread of flu/rsv in schools. And many schools have still had masks - Scotland, NI, Ireland, Wales too iirc - cases still rose in those countries in school aged children.

Being in denial, like vaccine won't stop the spread, or masks won't stop the spread, won't help anyone. It's quite clear from the data, countries with high vaccination rate and high masking rate are doing far better than England.

Why do you think it's ok to have any excess death, when you maybe able to prevent some of it?

twitter.com/k_eagar/status/1457304815898279937?s=21

countries with high vaccination rate and high masking rate are doing far better than England.

Have you missed that our cases have been falling for weeks now and cases in several countries in Europe are now rising? Countries with strict rules on masks and vaccine passports eg Germany.

Have you missed that there are other countries other than European countries?

If none of the European countries has managed to contain the spread, it would be naive to think UK might be the exception.

With Delta, we all appear to follow similar trajectories irrespective of restrictions. The Western European country that has currently got the highest rate of Covid cases mandates medical quality masks in most settings. They are making a real difference, aren't they?

Speaking of high masking rate, Japan recorded zero covid deaths today 😷

18k total deaths, low excess deaths (i.e. they’re not hiding the covid deaths). Mask adherence is high, and I’m sure that hasn’t been the only reason but it clearly hasn’t hurt.

@wintertravel1980

If none of the European countries has managed to contain the spread, it would be naive to think UK might be the exception.

With Delta, we all appear to follow similar trajectories irrespective of restrictions. The Western European country that has currently got the highest rate of Covid cases mandates medical quality masks in most settings. They are making a real difference, aren't they?

If you're talking about Germany, they have a lower vaccination take-up than some of their neighbours.

They're taking measures to improve things. They've recently announced they will be offering boosters to everyone from 12+.

Surely the elephant in the room that nobody seems to have mentioned on this thread is that there is a risk associated with the vaccines. If you vaccinate every child in the population a small percentage will develop myocarditis, pericarditis or may die as a result of the vaccine. If that small percentage (negligible in terms of percentage in fact) amounts to more deaths than the 63 (or 100) who have died from covid, then the benefit for not seem worth the risk. Isn’t this what the JCVI were weighing up, and decided that there’s a tiny benefit from vaccination and a tiny risk. Both tiny percentage-wise, but they are still tragic and personal losses whether from covid or from vaccines.

If you're talking about Germany, they have a lower vaccination take-up than some of their neighbours.

No, I'm talking about Austria (the green line on the previously attached graph that has now surpassed the UK third wave peak triggered by Euro 2020).

High vaccination rates help with hospitalisations and deaths but they cannot contain cases. Let's look at Singapore. How many people know that prevalence over there recently has been very similar to the UK? Mask wearing in Singapore also remains high but again it doesn't seem to make much of a difference.

@organicmoomoo

Not an elephant in the room it is well known that the rare risks from vaccination are also risk from contracting covid. However the outcomes from mycarditis, clots etc etc are worse from natural infection than from vaccination.
For example in most cases of vaccine induced mycarditis not only is this quickly recognised as medical prifessionals are aware it is a risk after vacvination but it has been so minor many cases have resolved without treatment or with treatment at home, a small number may need hospital treatment but there has been no lasting damage once recovered. This isnt the case with most mycarditis cases.
The british heart foundation are advising children be vaccinated.

2 of my children are too young to get vaccination. One is already at increased risk of mycarditis but we will vaccinate if we get opportunity because covid poses far more risk than vaccination.

@OrganicMooMoo vaccine side effects are a concern, who doesn’t think about that? However how can numbers be compared? Due to lockdowns and mitigation’s previously we do not have behind us a full flu season with children at school (no measures) and we are arguably only at the start of flu season now. The wave is thought to be easing nationally but for this age group perhaps numbers will stay high as it gets passed about.

Lelivre but numbers are higher now (according to PHE) in the double vaxxed population than in the unvaxxed population (proportionally, not just absolute numbers) meaning there is more spread, it seems, in the vaxxed than in the unvaxxed. I saw it at my daughter’s school. 8 cases in the entire school the week before the vax rollout and 14 cases in her class the week after, all of whom had the vax. They’re all back at school now.

@OrganicMooMoo

Lelivre but numbers are higher now (according to PHE) in the double vaxxed population than in the unvaxxed population (proportionally, not just absolute numbers) meaning there is more spread, it seems, in the vaxxed than in the unvaxxed. I saw it at my daughter’s school. 8 cases in the entire school the week before the vax rollout and 14 cases in her class the week after, all of whom had the vax. They’re all back at school now.

Those PHE numbers are grossly misleading because they use the NIMS headcount which seriously overestimates the size of the unvaccinated population, especially in the working age population. David Spiegelhalter explains it here. amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/sep/19/take-care-with-claims-about-unvaccinated-case-rates-covid That's from September- his Twitter has been getting increasingly furious that they're still publishing on that basis.

8 cases in the entire school the week before the vax rollout and 14 cases in her class the week after, all of whom had the vax.

You do know the vaccine doesn’t work immediately? I thought that had been pretty well publicised. Those children wouldn’t have caught covid despite being vaccinated, they would have caught covid as the vaccine protection hadn’t kicked in yet.

On your previous post @OrganicMooMoo re vaccine risk, why all the worry about the tiny risk from the vaccine (and as Covidworries pointed out, myocarditis following the vaccine is usually mild and self resolves within days/a couple of weeks), but no concern about the tiny risks of covid (hospitalisations/long covid) which are equally valid?

There are currently 69,000 children with long covid, 10,000 who’ve had symptoms for over a year. 720 hospital admissions for PIMS (that’s until feb 2021, so that number will be higher now.) I have no idea how people justify ignoring all of that and still saying “but vaccine risk!” Either both are valid, or neither are.

myocarditis following the vaccine is usually mild and self resolves within days/a couple of weeks

Out of curiosity, why isn’t this considered ‘minimising’? Yes, many cases do resolve quickly and don’t cause any long term problems. Some haven’t been quite so fortunate. You spend a lot of time giving out to people about minimising the risk of long covid but I have seen you write things like this several times and it seems a bit hypocritical.

BewareTheLibrarians

Oddly coincidental though.

Can you point me to evidence that vaccinated kids who catch COVID have less risk of long covid? I read recently that most cases of long COVID had nothing to do with COVID at all.
I have long covid myself, after 19 months. Sense of smell still weird and I still have exhaustion. My kids had no lasting symptoms at all. I don’t know of a single child locally that has long COVID. I know of one person (adult) who died from covid and one (adult) who died the day after her vaccine.

On your previous post @OrganicMooMoo re vaccine risk, why all the worry about the tiny risk from the vaccine (and as Covidworries pointed out, myocarditis following the vaccine is usually mild and self resolves within days/a couple of weeks), but no concern about the tiny risks of covid (hospitalisations/long covid) which are equally valid?

It isn’t no concern. The benefit to children from the vaccine is tiny. The risk to children from covid is tiny. The risk to children from the vaccine is currently unknown.

The risk to children from the vaccine is currently unknown.

Are the long term risks from covid are all completely known? Nope. What’s the difference?

I read recently that most cases of long COVID had nothing to do with COVID at all.

This is absolute nonsense. Fatigue etc could also be put down to returning to school after lockdown, but the majority of cases of long COVID are directly related to the infection, with inflammatory symptoms etc that can’t be caused by lockdown for eg. My ds had covid in the first wave and it left him with heart problems and inflammatory problems that still haven’t resolved after 20 months.

@bumbleymummy

myocarditis following the vaccine is usually mild and self resolves within days/a couple of weeks

Out of curiosity, why isn’t this considered ‘minimising’? Yes, many cases do resolve quickly and don’t cause any long term problems. Some haven’t been quite so fortunate. You spend a lot of time giving out to people about minimising the risk of long covid but I have seen you write things like this several times and it seems a bit hypocritical.

Yes it must be really really frustrating to read, mustn’t it Possibly less hypocritical as the numbers seem to be on the side of covid causing more problems though which is why I tend to “give out” about it so much.

The most vulnerable children have been eligible for the vaccine since the summer.

The most children known to be vulnerable. Do you realise there's a huge number of children - people - who don't know they have an underlying condition until it becomes a problem? My friend didn't know her 16 year old daughter had a heart condition, until she dropped dead. After this, her family were all tested and she and one of her young adult sons have a pacemaker, whereas another of her young adult sons had to have a heart transplant. Another friend didn't know she had an issue with her heart until she ended up late 30s, in hospital with a triple bypass and pacemaker fitted.

Many, many health conditions go unidentified and undiagnosed until too late.

Have you missed that our cases have been falling for weeks now

See attached details of an increase in our cases since last week. (Source: www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker )

Are the long term risks from covid are all completely known? Nope. What’s the difference?

We have longer term data on effects after infection in children compared to effects after vaccination in children?

Sadly, it isn’t ‘nonsense’ based on what the current definition of long covid actually includes. They really need to come up with a more specific definition that properly recognises the more serious symptoms so that we can start doing proper studies into causes, risk factors and potential treatments. The data is far too noisy at the moment.