Covid Child Mortality

[Warhertisuff]

A horrible topic I know, but one which parents have a right to be informed accurately about.

I've read that over 100 children have now died of Covid in the U.K. However, that doesn't seem to square with the stats I can find. The ONS data below suggests that there have been 14 deaths of children under 14 since February, and 4 school aged children under 14 since the start of autumn term. I appreciate the pandemic has been here since before last February but even so.... especially since infections in schools have only really skyrocketed
since summer half term and through into this term.

Obviously all child deaths are tragic, but in order to determine our response, we need to know whether deaths are as prevalent as other diseases such as meningitis or other causes such as traffic accidents, or whether we are talking another level of magnitude.

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1470/age/wrapper/datadownload.xlsx

What shocked me is (if I remember correctly) it was 10 last year so most of this number are related to the reducing of mitigation’s for kids as the pandemic has progressed this year, as adults have become more protected. Further with each variant there appears to be increased transmissibility and virulence particularly for the unprotected. Previously schools seemed to reflect community transmission at most, not drive it. This has changed with delta. Delta plus is even more transmissible IIRC.

These developments indicate the virus may not weaken with each variant as some have hoped. So far the opposite, there is no evidence to suggest other coronavirus have become weaker over time. With COVID-19 there is no (survival) drive for the virus to do so given it’s transmissibility and it’s ability to replicate with each revision is so effective before a host recovers or otherwise.

@ADreadedSunnyDay

I know menb can cause dreadful disabilities. My dd is missing her hand and we know a number who lost limbs, sometimes all 4 to menb. I know one of the parents who was at the forefront of the campaign to get the vaccine, her DC lost all 4 limbs. I'm not disputing that vaccine is a good one to have.

However if you are arguing that covid doesn't effect enough children either by death or serious long term illness to merit the vaccine, then the same must apply to both of those.

Further with each variant there appears to be increased transmissibility and virulence

Yes, delta is more transmissible but I don’t think it was found to be particularly more virulent - just that there were more cases and therefore more hospitalisations.

No, I’m afraid it seems not. Perhaps the protection of vaccination has given that impression.

www.cmaj.ca/content/193/42/E1619

Good job that the vaccines are good at reducing serious illness/hospitalisation and that we have new treatments then isn’t it? :)

The only way to get meaningful data on this is through FOI requests it’s seems. Here’s one covering a 1 year period from sept 2020-Sept 2021. 15 deaths due to Covid over the year: 2/3rds of which were in the 15-19 bracket, so who knows how many of those were actually children.

@Bizawit

The only way to get meaningful data on this is through FOI requests it’s seems. Here’s one covering a 1 year period from sept 2020-Sept 2021. 15 deaths due to Covid over the year: 2/3rds of which were in the 15-19 bracket, so who knows how many of those were actually children.

This is just for England and Wales . To compare around 40 children in England Wales die every year from SUDC- “sudden unexplained death in childhood”.

@bumbleymummy

Good job that the vaccines are good at reducing serious illness/hospitalisation and that we have new treatments then isn’t it? :)

Absolutely, for adults in any case. Obviously vaccine are still not available for younger children even flu vaccines seem to be a problem this year where we are.

I’m not sure about new treatments and if these are licensed for younger children. I’m assuming that they are not but I haven’t checked.

What shocks me is there is all this minimising of covid deaths but when 23 children died at the Manchester arena there was outcry, we remember the 116 children that died at Aberfan every yr etc

No one said well people die life, isnt risk free, they could have died in a RTC, of any illness, x children die every year of X, y or Z and some of those children would have died of other causes.

But covid doesn't seem to matter it gets diminished as if those children dont matter

@Covidworries

What shocks me is there is all this minimising of covid deaths but when 23 children died at the Manchester arena there was outcry, we remember the 116 children that died at Aberfan every yr etc

No one said well people die life, isnt risk free, they could have died in a RTC, of any illness, x children die every year of X, y or Z and some of those children would have died of other causes.

But covid doesn't seem to matter it gets diminished as if those children dont matter

Of course they matter.

@Bizawit

The only way to get meaningful data on this is through FOI requests it’s seems. Here’s one covering a 1 year period from sept 2020-Sept 2021. 15 deaths due to Covid over the year: 2/3rds of which were in the 15-19 bracket, so who knows how many of those were actually children.

Why on earth would you have needed an FOI request to get that data? As it says at the bottom of the table it's all published weekly at www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales Covid Deaths in under-20s to date in 2021 are 63, of which 38 are in the 15-19 bracket. Deaths in under 20s for 2020 were far lower which suggests that either Delta is much more lethal in young people than earlier variants or that Covid deaths were under diagnosed in the first wave - either seems plausible.

@Lelivre have there been many deaths in young children though? It looks like most of the deaths were in older children with underlying health conditions and they’re now eligible for the vaccine.

@MsWarrensProfession but I think the info published each week aggregates deaths where Covid is mentioned anywhere on the BC , and deaths due to Covid- where Covid is listed as main cause of death. (The latter group is smaller than the former) and this is an important distinction too when interpreting the impact/ risk of Covid in terms of child mortality.
Apologies if I have missed this in the regularly published data, but when I’ve looked before i haven’t seen it broken down this way before.

@MsWarrensProfession also due to the timing of the pandemic, i don’t think it’s reasonable to compare 2020 and 2021. Deaths didn’t really start happening (or start being recorded) until March 2020 missing the worst of the winter. 2021 stats include the worst of last winters wave in Jan etc. much better to look at a year with all seasons included - eg sept to sept as the table I published does.

Weekly deaths "with" and "of" are split out on one of the first sheets, although they're not split by age group.

I think for pandemic purposes it's interesting to compare waves rather than seasons. I give 2020 and 2021 separately just because they're on separate spreadsheets but of course you can aggregate and split the weeks any way you want.

@MsWarrensProfession

Covid Deaths in under-20s to date in 2021 are 63, of which 38 are in the 15-19 bracket. Deaths in under 20s for 2020 were far lower which suggests that either Delta is much more lethal in young people than earlier variants or that Covid deaths were under diagnosed in the first wave - either seems plausible.

Or alternatively many more children and young people have been infected with Delta as schools have remained open without mitigations unlike the first two waves when they were closed for months.

You cannot compare the Manchester bombing wuth a virus!!!!

Children die and are hospitalised with flu evey year!! There is such hysteria around covid yet not much else!

@MsWarrensProfession

Weekly deaths "with" and "of" are split out on one of the first sheets, although they're not split by age group.

I think for pandemic purposes it's interesting to compare waves rather than seasons. I give 2020 and 2021 separately just because they're on separate spreadsheets but of course you can aggregate and split the weeks any way you want.

Well if they aren’t broken down by age group that’s a severe limitation in terms of estimating child mortality isn’t it!

The point is that you can’t draw the types of conclusions you suggested by simply saying more children died in 2021 compared to 2020, because 2020 starts at the end of march, and 2021 starts with the worst winter months for deaths.

@MargaretThursday
No my point really is that this is nothing new - the cost/benefit analysis of vaccines has always been an issue rightly or wrongly. What we are seeing playing out with Covid has been the case with other vaccines too. For me meningitis is a bigger issue than Covid but I think people should have the choice.

This (screenshot from a consultant in Anaesthesia, Critical Care and Adult ECMO) gives a bit more information about ONS info and covid on the death certificate, and that “within 28 days of a positive test” actually underestimates deaths rather than overestimates.

This tweet & info also seems pertinent (and sad)
mobile.twitter.com/caz_sampson/status/1456374866286874630
“October 2021 saw the highest number of covid19 deaths in those

@REMMY123

I can do any comparision i want. People are saying.
Hardly any children died in the bombing apparently. More children have died due to covid but this gets minimised all the time. Both include deaths that could and should have been avoided.

@Bizawit Is this breakdown by age useful? It’s deaths within 28 days of a positive test rather than on death certificate, but as I posted above, the “28 days” metric can sadly often be an underestimate rather than an overestimate.

mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1456304538302959616

[quote BewareTheLibrarians]@Bizawit Is this breakdown by age useful? It’s deaths within 28 days of a positive test rather than on death certificate, but as I posted above, the “28 days” metric can sadly often be an underestimate rather than an overestimate.

mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1456304538302959616[/quote]
Yes I’m aware of this way of counting deaths. It’s less accurate than the ONS data for understanding impact of Covid on mortality. When it comes to children this way of counting is very much an overestimate.

No problem @Bizawit apologies for trying to help

@bumbleymummy
I haven’t looked too closely at this subject to say. The data may be helpful coming out of the US as the numbers are higher. As this is the first ‘natural wave’ for the uk so I suppose we will find out more over the autumn and winter. I imagine, sadly, numbers will climb.