Are people dying of Covid, or with Covid?

[lightand]

As they are different things.

Does anyone actually know?

There will always be people dying with Covid, as the elderly, especially, die, and some of them, like the rest of us, will always die whilst having Covid.

So could 180 per day per winter be an average number going forward, forever now? [and the NHS should well be into the process of gearing up for that?]

Oooh Hart group. That well known bastion of truth🤣

I think it is better that you don’t sneer about things that you don’t know anything about because you’re looking pretty foolish here making daft remarks.

This here, these shitty sneering comments towards any organisation or individual that has a different opinion is part of the problem. People are covidiots, deniers and conspiracy nuts apparently. It has been known for quite some time that disabled people and people with learning disabilities locked up in homes have had the highest death rate.

Scoff and sneer away. As you can see, concerns were and are being raised in parliament.

committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2318/html/

Q1382 Barbara Keeley: You are not willing to accept from these reports and, in fact, from myself as an MP that this was happening; that there was a denial of treatment to some people. I understand, and I have said that you challenged it, but the problem is it carried on happening.

Matt Hancock: I have seen the reports, and it is totally unacceptable.

Q1383 Barbara Keeley: How can you stop it though? It is not as if it just happened once.

Matt Hancock: The strongest thing I can do is ensure that the NHS issues guidance to make the rules around this absolutely clear; and that is what I have done. The point about protecting the NHS is that the capacity to treat all people for Covid was always there throughout, even in the highest peaks. That treatment was always available at all times. I am very proud that we managed to build that capacity. In fact, the NHS themselves did a remarkable job in building the Nightingale hospitals, for instance, so—

Q1384 Barbara Keeley: It is not about that, though, Secretary of State. It is about a cast of mind, a mindset, that treated vulnerable people, people with learning disabilities and people with mental illness in a particular way. Let’s leave the point now.

I want to raise the question of expert advice to the Government. You mentioned earlier clinical advice on testing on discharge to care homes, and you said it was advice from SAGE. I think you quoted that a couple of times. SAGE had almost 100 advisers, including experts from health, epidemiology, criminology and psychology, statisticians, environmental and behavioural scientists, but no social workers and no input from care providers.

Care England told me planning prior to the pandemic did not involve social care; it was all focused on the NHS. The British Association of Social Workers chief executive, Dr Ruth Allen, said, “SAGE would be strengthened enormously by input from social work, and it is shocking that we have none.” Some of the biggest care home operators have said that they repeatedly warned in March 2020 about the dangers of discharging people into care homes without testing, and they warned you both directly by email and via representatives of Care England. Given the terrible excess mortality in care homes, partly driven by actions that the care sector had warned could be damaging, do you recognise that this failure to include expertise from the care sector was a mistake?

The problems with social care and care of the elderly pre-existed covid and exacerbated the problems caused by covid. We have an ageing population and a growing proportion of people with complex health and social care needs, and a huge shortage of labour and funding to cater for those needs. Covid has made this impossible for society to continue to ignore. It hasn’t necessarily made society more sympathetic, though - tbh, it seems to me there are just more and more voices clamouring for the right to die so as to avoid being one of the people reliant on inadequate or non-existent support.

This here, these shitty sneering comments towards any organisation or individual that has a different opinion is part of the problem.

But HART aren’t just an organisation with a different opinion. They are a group of people, largely conspiracy theorists who have admitted they will lie and make things up and manipulate people to see their point of view. If other reputable organisations are saying the same thing, link to that (if you are sure HART) weren’t the source. But if you link to HART, don’t be surprised if people roll their eyes and disbelieve it.

But in my view - I think medical care was much more adversely affected than it needed to be, because of the panic caused by erroneous modelling.

Have you forgotten Italy and Spain in Feb/March 2020 where they hadn’t yet ‘panicked’ and people were dying because their hospital system was overwhelmed and couldn’t manage the covid patients let alone anything else? Or that we trebled the number of ICU beds in this country and then, even with restrictions, filled most of them? Or that the only reason we locked down in last November was that somebody managed to finally convince Boris that the NHS was days away from not only not being able to provide routine surgeries (which had had to be cancelled weeks before to manage the covid load) but would have no space for emergency cases either. We never introduced anything because of modelling alone. We were far too late for that. We introduced it because it already looked bad in reality. Often too late.

The NHS is very far from the only healthcare system to have this problem. The WHO had a report that said in 90% of the countries they looked at healthcare had been affected by the pandemic. Off the top of my head, parts of Italy, Spain, France, USA, Japan, India and China have all had issues at one point or another with services being or getting close to being overwhelmed due to covid.
The average length of time a covid patient is in ICU is much longer than for major surgeries. I think it’s something like 20 days vs 2-4 depending on the surgery. Which essentially means that for every patient admitted to icu with Covid several heart or cancer ops have to be cancelled or postponed.
If you think any of this would have been better with higher covid levels over a shorter period of time, you are very, very wrong. It would have just had a catastrophic effect on the healthcare system.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

This here, these shitty sneering comments towards any organisation or individual that has a different opinion is part of the problem.

But HART aren’t just an organisation with a different opinion. They are a group of people, largely conspiracy theorists who have admitted they will lie and make things up and manipulate people to see their point of view. If other reputable organisations are saying the same thing, link to that (if you are sure HART) weren’t the source. But if you link to HART, don’t be surprised if people roll their eyes and disbelieve it.

But in my view - I think medical care was much more adversely affected than it needed to be, because of the panic caused by erroneous modelling.

Have you forgotten Italy and Spain in Feb/March 2020 where they hadn’t yet ‘panicked’ and people were dying because their hospital system was overwhelmed and couldn’t manage the covid patients let alone anything else? Or that we trebled the number of ICU beds in this country and then, even with restrictions, filled most of them? Or that the only reason we locked down in last November was that somebody managed to finally convince Boris that the NHS was days away from not only not being able to provide routine surgeries (which had had to be cancelled weeks before to manage the covid load) but would have no space for emergency cases either. We never introduced anything because of modelling alone. We were far too late for that. We introduced it because it already looked bad in reality. Often too late.

The NHS is very far from the only healthcare system to have this problem. The WHO had a report that said in 90% of the countries they looked at healthcare had been affected by the pandemic. Off the top of my head, parts of Italy, Spain, France, USA, Japan, India and China have all had issues at one point or another with services being or getting close to being overwhelmed due to covid.
The average length of time a covid patient is in ICU is much longer than for major surgeries. I think it’s something like 20 days vs 2-4 depending on the surgery. Which essentially means that for every patient admitted to icu with Covid several heart or cancer ops have to be cancelled or postponed.
If you think any of this would have been better with higher covid levels over a shorter period of time, you are very, very wrong. It would have just had a catastrophic effect on the healthcare system.

So many things I could say in response to this but it’s too exhausting. Suffice to say that the NHS is often busy, that the periods it was at capacity were very brief compared to the length of time we’ve been living with Covid restrictions, and that there is little evidence to say that restrictions and lockdown are particularly effective anyway. Do I think things would have been any worse if we’d taken a strategy more like Sweden, or even less authoritarian? No I don’t.

I just don’t agree with your perspective and I think it’s important to express that: to challenge the notion that there is consensus on this issue, or only one way of viewing the situation .

If you support lockdown and other Covid restrictions then I am glad for you; that will have removed some of the sting of having to live with what we have the last 18 months. For those of us who don’t want to live under this kind of governance and who question the rationality and proportionality of the measures, it has been profoundly disturbing.

And as far as I’m aware we never actually hit that crisis point that we were all so afraid of. You can say “that’s because we were
Locked down, it was a matter of weeks” until you are blue in the face. You have no real evidence for that.

@Bizawit - talking of evidence, do you have any evidence that having no restrictions or lockdowns would have been better? Because it seems to me there is more evidence that we were about to hit crisis point than that this would never have happened, especially when looking at comparable countries which got hit before us?

Imvho, the UK found the sweet spot for maximising deaths and disruption by swinging from one approach to another, always at the worst possible point, when the disadvantages of each approach were most pronounced and a lot of the advantages had been lost due to the timing of the decisions made.

Personally, I am quite glad that we didn't have to live through even more of an Armageddon, with even more 1000s and 1000s of people dying preventably of covid or of other illnesses but unable to access an overwhelmed health system.

But hey, that's just me.

Imvho, the UK found the sweet spot for maximising deaths and disruption by swinging from one approach to another, always at the worst possible point, when the disadvantages of each approach were most pronounced and a lot of the advantages had been lost due to the timing of the decisions made

@Walkaround I agree with your vho.

and also agreeing with @Walkaround re timings

It’s your choice to have whatever perspective you like. But if you genuinely think that restrictions that reduce the number of social contacts people have doesn’t slow down the spread of an infectious disease then I suspect the problem isn’t available evidence.

And I’m guessing you don’t work in the NHS especially in ITU. I don’t really think most people understand how bad it got and how much worse it was than a normal winter. If you treble the number of icu beds, putting them in recovery wards and theatres and then fill 90% of them that’s more than 2.5 times the normal number of patients. There’s plenty of bad actors acting in bad faith around and I understand how people might want to comfort themselves by believing it is just like a normal winter, but I suspect if you ask people with actual experience of both normal winters and covid you’ll get a very different answer.

But HART aren’t just an organisation with a different opinion. They are a group of people, largely conspiracy theorists who have admitted they will lie and make things up and manipulate people to see their point of view. If other reputable organisations are saying the same thing, link to that (if you are sure HART) weren’t the source. But if you link to HART, don’t be surprised if people roll their eyes and disbelieve it

I’ve posted several links, the amnesty report, the CQC report and the uk committee report. All express similar concerns.

HART have admitted they’ve lied? Really? Do you have some info about that? That would be a pretty stupid thing to do wouldn’t it.

Considering they have exactly the same concerns as the government I don’t think you can call them conspiracy theorists.

Well HART seem to be well documented as anti-vaccine, anti-lockdown propagandists, who are knowingly spreading misinformation in a pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58783711

This is from the BBC.

"Leaked chat logs from the anti-lockdown Health Advisory and Recovery Team show members discussing putting their message against vaccines out under the banner of another organisation, the UK Medical Freedom Alliance, "if it is too inflammatory for Hart".

Another member discussed sharing research from a third vaccine-detracting body, the British Ivermectin Recommendation and Development Group, because "psychologically this then looks like two groups of professionals agreeing with each other (making the content more believable as it looks like two separate groups)".

Members of these organisations also have links to Us for Them, which says it represents parents, and the campaign group Safer to Wait.

Its founder can be seen in the leaked Hart members chat, asking the group to distribute a Safer to Wait leaflet with misleading claims about the vaccine to primary-school parents.

These campaigns appear to be having a wide reach, with protests at schools across the UK."

Actually, if they are encouraging people to accost kids at the school gate, I can think of other words to call them as well.

But if you genuinely think that restrictions that reduce the number of social contacts people have doesn’t slow down the spread of an infectious disease then I suspect the problem isn’t available evidence

Of course as an abstract proposition that is obviously the case.
Do I think in real life settings, the kind of policy measures implemented had more than a marginal effect on the spread of the disease? No I don’t. The world is not your dolls house.
Plenty of evidence to support such a position . You are welcome to patronise me as much as you like, it doesn’t bolster your point.

So I think HART can reasonably be left out of a sensible discussion. I very much hope that even our elected Government has a better understanding of the medical issues in the pandemic than that.

I agree that there are complex issues around the need to deliver services in a pandemic and on the other, the civil liberties issues arising from how that was done.

I also think that on the hospital floor, many staff went over and beyond to try and deliver the best service they could to terribly ill patients.

And I think at the end of the day the Government are accountable to Joe Public for their handling of this (including the ring of care around the care homes).

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

It’s your choice to have whatever perspective you like. But if you genuinely think that restrictions that reduce the number of social contacts people have doesn’t slow down the spread of an infectious disease then I suspect the problem isn’t available evidence.

And I’m guessing you don’t work in the NHS especially in ITU. I don’t really think most people understand how bad it got and how much worse it was than a normal winter. If you treble the number of icu beds, putting them in recovery wards and theatres and then fill 90% of them that’s more than 2.5 times the normal number of patients. There’s plenty of bad actors acting in bad faith around and I understand how people might want to comfort themselves by believing it is just like a normal winter, but I suspect if you ask people with actual experience of both normal winters and covid you’ll get a very different answer.

Also no I don’t work in the nhs or iTunes, but I have close friends who do and do not agree- at least in their hospitals that it was particularly worse than an average winter 💁🏼‍♀️.

@Bizawit

But if you genuinely think that restrictions that reduce the number of social contacts people have doesn’t slow down the spread of an infectious disease then I suspect the problem isn’t available evidence

Of course as an abstract proposition that is obviously the case.
Do I think in real life settings, the kind of policy measures implemented had more than a marginal effect on the spread of the disease? No I don’t. The world is not your dolls house.
Plenty of evidence to support such a position . You are welcome to patronise me as much as you like, it doesn’t bolster your point.

Well, I think it is on you to provide that evidence. The ball's in your court.

HART have admitted they’ve lied? Really? Do you have some info about that? That would be a pretty stupid thing to do wouldn’t it.

@FlorenciaFlora

I cannot beleive posters are still quoting the nonsense HART group. They have spent the entire pandemic spreading disinformation which has been repeatedly disproven.

Their leaked chat logs (reported by the BBC who are not ones to do this without verifying, given HART contains many powerful members) show them discussing the best way to coerce and scare the public into not being vaccinated.

@julieca

If you think the cause of death is wrong on the certificate, you tell them when you go to register the death. They can then order an inquest. Inquests are particularly important for avoidable causes of death.

Interesting but I don't think that's true, not in our case.

Like I said, it took six months for Kingston, Surrey, to get back to us with the verdict of the post-mortem, and for us to therefore get a death certificate. Naturally, Mum was dead and buried a good few months then - so too late for any inquest if it were to go on any reassessment of evidence i.e. the body. And we weren't offered an inquest, and by then - as was probably the idea - we had moved on.

Everything was slyness. Even when we turned up to register the death - at long last at Kingston Council HQ - the slightly fly young official told us we could always delay if we weren't happy with the verdict. But to delay registering a death can get you into serious trouble.

This sounds nuts, and I apologise, but I suspected my mobile phone was tapped during the year prior to Mum's death, which can be done under RIPA legislation anyway, on any kind of pretext. It's just surveillance. It can be allowed in 3 month blocks, I understand, so maybe that's why it took six months to get a verdict. How do I know? I don't, but the phone kept cutting out, mainly when talking about Safeguarding issues re Mum - that said I really should have changed my PIN numbers. Also, Social Services were madly keen to find out my sister's address in Battersea, it had no bearing on anything, they had her email, except of course we would use her phone in her flat to chat, because that line didn't cut out. Naturally, after she made the error of putting down that address on her application for LPA in Finance, taking it back from our solicitors, then hey ho! The line on her flat kept cutting out as well. That said, I'd have thought it would have been easy enough to find out where she lived if they wanted to.

We really do sense you are up against some mad, toxic, weird entity when you are up against the State, it is just sullying. Reading about the Met SpyCops scandal, I suppose we got off lightly, but who are the sick creeps who rule over us?

Would they have died without covid? No. So that's All the info you need I suspect

Well HART seem to be well documented as anti-vaccine, anti-lockdown propagandists, who are knowingly spreading misinformation in a pandemic

Come off it. Despite the evidence that HARTs concerns are valid you are trying to counter it with nonsense from the bbc. Someone at the BBC said a member said something? There’s an all edged chat log? That’s not evidence. It’s gossip.

I can’t comment on your other claims, but It’s not debatable that on this occasions their concerns are valid and are shared by parliament, the CQC and Amnesty international. I find it interesting that you would rather focus on this than perhaps discuss those concerns.

The BBC for whatever reason are not reporting these concerns. And they are rubbishing people that do. Why do you think we’re not hearing about this?

@FlorenciaFlora

Well HART seem to be well documented as anti-vaccine, anti-lockdown propagandists, who are knowingly spreading misinformation in a pandemic

Come off it. Despite the evidence that HARTs concerns are valid you are trying to counter it with nonsense from the bbc. Someone at the BBC said a member said something? There’s an all edged chat log? That’s not evidence. It’s gossip.

I can’t comment on your other claims, but It’s not debatable that on this occasions their concerns are valid and are shared by parliament, the CQC and Amnesty international. I find it interesting that you would rather focus on this than perhaps discuss those concerns.

The BBC for whatever reason are not reporting these concerns. And they are rubbishing people that do. Why do you think we’re not hearing about this?

Nope as I as I posted

I cannot beleive posters are still quoting the nonsense HART group. They have spent the entire pandemic spreading disinformation which has been repeatedly disproven.

Their leaked chat logs (reported by the BBC who are not ones to do this without verifying, given HART contains many powerful members) show them discussing the best way to coerce and scare the public into not being vaccinated.

My friend who worked on a Covid ward throughout the spring / summer of 2020 said it was some of the most relaxing weeks of his career!

@Bizawit

My friend who worked on a Covid ward throughout the spring / summer of 2020 said it was some of the most relaxing weeks of his career!

One anecdote from an anonymous poster's friend does not a trend make (particularly when the statistics don't back this up in the slightest)

Nope as I as I posted

Are you saying you think theyre lying about their concerns? Even though parliament and other organisations share those concerns?

@leafyygreens if you read the thread you might understand the context of that comment