Plan B

[edisonbulb]

Are they nudging us to plan B with the presser on Sunday the articles in the papers the headlines on Sky and BBC being the worst in Europe.

I can't see another lockdown happening but masks easy fix and work from home well for some.

I agree about after Christmas being the most likely plan.

But I can't rule out a November circuit breaker to take a bit off the top and promote a false sense of security to save Christmas shopping.

Like last year.

@girlsyearapart

Surely the isolation rules will revert back to what they were? Dd2 has covid , the other 5 of us can go and do what we like / school / work etc🤔

I wouldn’t support them fully going back to how they were with whole class bubbles being sent home for one person etc. Household isolation, however, makes sense and is surely a sensible middle ground.

Interesting data from France @Lostinacloud I see the usual suspects are choosing to ignore those very key figures

Our problem is that the NHS is overwhelmed every winter. We need to focus on that issue and investment and not lockdown again. People also seem to forget France didn’t lockdown again this year when we did. They let cases (the ones they tested for) bubble away at around 25,000 to 30,000 cases for FOUR months. Whilst we had very low cases due to lockdown. Where was all the criticism of France then? Not doing anything etc? Maybe that four months was their exit wave and this four months (from end of July) is ours.

@PrincessNutNuts

I agree about after Christmas being the most likely plan.

But I can't rule out a November circuit breaker to take a bit off the top and promote a false sense of security to save Christmas shopping.

Like last year.

Who will take any notice? Surely no one will stay away from family and friends again, especially now we know that Boris and Carrie did their own thing last Christmas.

Yep nobody would take any notice. And they know that. So hammer the economy for no benefit? I doubt it.

They may suggest WFH if you can. Maybe masks back in some areas. But I’m not sure they’ll even do that...

I wonder if universities will move back online. So many on my course are off with Covid.

Numbers are just going to get higher now there is colder weather, something will have to be done.

@thewhatsit
I feel the same way. It would make so much more sense if households had to isolate if there was a positive case.
The whole class shutdown was a fiasco

@Lostinacloud

It’s all a joke to be honest. The goalposts that are continually met by the public continue to move. Maybe mass compliance is an alternative avenue to try to see what happens? They’ve tried lockdowns, school closures, mass vaccinations regardless of individual risk and now boosters are rolling out. Next step vaccine passports (seemingly the goal all along). How about instead we all be trusted with our own health and interactions again and they put all this covid money into the fucking NHS.

Welll said it is all about saving the nhs which has shit mangers , badly run and underfunded for years you think the government gives a shit about how many people die ? It is all about money

As I just read on another thread @Delatron, the fear has mostly gone so the government need a new tactic. Vaccine passports are the new tactic - compliance with restriction will be forced by limiting access to places. Unlikely to have any effect on case numbers but they will probably time it’s introduction to a predicted natural downturn in case numbers, just like other European countries did, so it appears that they make a difference.

@Itisasecret

We needed not to just rely on vaccines.

They should've 'done' the teens in the summer.

They shouldn't have abolished household contacts especially.

Masks in certain situations.

Not keeping a class open when over half have covid.

Sped up the boosters.

Just common sense things you know? All too late for it now.

Which makes me immensely cross as it is just dragging it out for worse and longer. My children deserve to have a normal shot at life. Not this.

This. Agree would have been common sense. That's putting it mildly.

@Delatron

Yep nobody would take any notice. And they know that. So hammer the economy for no benefit? I doubt it.

They may suggest WFH if you can. Maybe masks back in some areas. But I’m not sure they’ll even do that...

You’re right, many wouldn’t take notice that’s why things will have to get very bad before any action happens, which is why Plan C will be likely in the new year and not before.

It will soon become crystal clear that we can not live with Covid as though it does not exist, it simply doesn’t work like that. Vaccination helps reduce severity but without an overhaul of NHS staffing levels and facilities the vaccines alone are not enough to prevent Covid from impacting every day life for every one.

The economy will be hammered regardless of lockdown if the numbers continue to get out of control. Sure we’ll ignorantly believe we can cope but Covid reality will bite hard and serve us a big slice of humble pie in the thick of winter.

@hanahsaunt

I was in Germany last week which has a higher rate of vaccination and has a vaccine plus model so masks in indoor spaces, a very few small places had a numbers limit but this was the exception rather than the rule, vaccine pass to be shown on entry to places such as museums and restaurants (not shops). No drama, no fuss, just a country getting about its business as usual and demonstrating how one can live with Covid without skyrocketing cases like ours. It was very liberating and lovely. It means my son has teaching in person and may finally have one year of being a normal university student (fingers crossed). Attitudes here are utterly ridiculous - it's all me, me, me and not about being a part of a community.

That ironically sounds alot more free than here.

@edisonbulb

I just don't know why they don't mandate mask now. It's not that difficult.

It makes no difference, it's mandated in Scotland.

It does make a difference if enforced properly.

Germany made FFP2 masks compulsory in February, and Covid passports became compulsory in March. That was over 7 months ago. Right when the third wave was starting to develop here.

They do work. Less than 10% of the population was vaccinated in March, and what we saw was a steady decline in cases and a much lower peak of the wave than all the neighbouring countries. When Europe was panicking about the Indian variant (was that Delta? I lose track), Germany was reopening restaurants.

Why? Because it had come up with measures that proved to work when applied properly.

My colleagues in the UK still work with restrictions around numbers and distancing, in a job that's not practical to be done that way (performing arts).

My peers in UK universities are still having online lectures. 20 months after Covid appeared In the meantime, students here have in-person classes and we see our main tutors face-to-face, every single week. That's for a postgraduate 'not-so-important' degree, undergrads are having it even more normal than us.

The cases have been holding steady for over two months now. There are no talks of lockdowns over winter because people behave responsibly and the government and healthcare systems prepare accordingly for the colder season.

There's no talk of lockdowns here except by the same old people on MN

The Coronavirus Bill that enables the government to do what the f**k they like basically - in the name of protecting us from Covid - which they only do sometimes when it suits them and even then it's a waste of time ...

Has just been extended for another six months. Without a vote

@Pootle40

There's no talk of lockdowns here except by the same old people on MN

True. We have had people talking about other stuff but even that scientist today was more positive than that. Forgotten his name - oh yeh Ferguson

@Lostinacloud

Here’s an interesting comparison;

UK data as of today at 5pm
Number of people hospitalised - 7,749
(we don’t know how many of these are ill with covid or in for a broken leg and testing positive)
Number of people in icu beds - 823

France data as of yesterday evening;
Number of people hospitalised - 6,468
Number of people in icu beds - 1,049

The daily case rate may be much lower in France but the hospitalisations are really not that far apart.

As quite a few of us have been saying for a while, we really shouldn’t need to focus so much on the case dates anymore when the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths has been broken/reduced by the vaccine program, particularly amongst the over 65’s higher risk groups.

Do you have a source for this please?

@Pootle40

There's no talk of lockdowns here except by the same old people on MN

Let’s wait and see. Christmas is a long way off yet… unless we shift our approach to be more cautious and sensible, lockdowns may well be our only option and we’d only have ourselves to blame for it.

With such high rates of infections a new variant is not out of the question either, it truly feels like we’re sleepwalking into disaster.

@Thewiseoneincognito so you think post Christmas lockdown?

[quote bluetuesdayy]@Thewiseoneincognito so you think post Christmas lockdown?[/quote]
Unless there is a miracle and the virus suddenly disappears before Christmas I suspect we will be in quite a difficult position and have no other choice.

As things now stand our cases are rising and we have seemingly abandoned almost all of the mitigation’s we had to manage rates this time last year, instead we appear to be pinning all our hopes on the vaccines and just wishing for the best.

Starting 2022 in a lockdown would not be a surprise.

@Lostinacloud

Here’s an interesting comparison;

UK data as of today at 5pm
Number of people hospitalised - 7,749
(we don’t know how many of these are ill with covid or in for a broken leg and testing positive)
Number of people in icu beds - 823

France data as of yesterday evening;
Number of people hospitalised - 6,468
Number of people in icu beds - 1,049

The daily case rate may be much lower in France but the hospitalisations are really not that far apart.

As quite a few of us have been saying for a while, we really shouldn’t need to focus so much on the case dates anymore when the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths has been broken/reduced by the vaccine program, particularly amongst the over 65’s higher risk groups.

But France has a population slightly larger than ours, and nearly twice as many ICU beds per million population. So having about 20% more people in ICU beds means their rate of occupancy of ICU beds is far lower than ours.

This post is like covid bingo:

Cautious
Sensible
Lockdowns our only answer
Ourselves to blame
High rates of infection
New variant
Sleepwalking into disaster

You missed off:
Ripping through
Selfish
Ventilation
Social distancing

[quote bluetuesdayy]@Thewiseoneincognito so you think post Christmas lockdown?[/quote]
You sound extremely hopeful

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare Yep plus this says that actually 823 People are on ventilators in the uk - but not anyone in icu is ventilated. Couldn‘t find any source for France.