Plan B

[edisonbulb]

Are they nudging us to plan B with the presser on Sunday the articles in the papers the headlines on Sky and BBC being the worst in Europe.

I can't see another lockdown happening but masks easy fix and work from home well for some.

@Parker231

The government have totally messed up handling the pandemic. They have dug themselves into a position which isn’t working and the deaths from Covid still remain incredibly high. They would be better (but Boris won’t) admit as soon as possible that changes are needed and make masks mandatory for everyone from 11+ in an indoor setting and recommend social distancing and working from home where possible.

You realise that our deaths are about 8% of what they were at the peak of the pandemic right.

On average between 50 and 100 people died a day due to flu related illnesses pre pandemic. Obviously more died during winter periods but those are the average numbers throughout the year.

We have a new illness now that will kill people so we need to accept this and factor it into what number of deaths we accept a week from now on.

1500 people on average die a day due to all causes don't forget.

In terms of figures atm you’re better off to look at excess deaths as community cases are high and impact on figures (Pollard talked about this the other day)

From Twitter:

The 54 year old father of a friend was buried this week. A Covid death which should have never happened.
Deaths obviously happen but if the pandemic had been handled better some of these Covid deaths could have been prevented, less strain on the NHS and more beds available for other patients

@PrincessNutNuts quite funny / light hearted from you Princess!

@Parker231

The 54 year old father of a friend was buried this week. A Covid death which should have never happened. Deaths obviously happen but if the pandemic had been handled better some of these Covid deaths could have been prevented, less strain on the NHS and more beds available for other patients

That is very sad, can I ask was he vaccinated?

Bringing back masks ya but I dont see how social distancing can be brought back without effecting places like theater,resturants,nightclubs etc. I cant see it happening unless there is support in place for jobs again which is unlikely or only in certain areas such as shops which would make it a bit pointless

On funny the best one was the go to work / don’t go to work one from Matt Lucas, v well done

And @BristOliver showing us the maths of infectious pandemics.

We're here because mitigations were removed.

@MarshaBradyo He was double vaccinated with no underlying health conditions. His daughter is getting married at Christmas, now without her father.

[quote bluetuesdayy]@PrincessNutNuts quite funny / light hearted from you Princess! [/quote]
You should see me when the government's not making decisions that kill thousands of us, and ruin our children's lives.

[quote Parker231]@MarshaBradyo He was double vaccinated with no underlying health conditions. His daughter is getting married at Christmas, now without her father.[/quote]
That is very rare - it’s devastating for them but he will be one if very few under 60 double vaccinated.

Covid deaths are 0.8 of all deaths after double vaccination and I think this age group ys a very low part of that

I know it doesn’t change for your friend but in terms of people feeling worried reading that

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021#age-standardised-mortality-rates-for-deaths-involving-covid-19-by-vaccination-status-over-time

Whoops thought your friend was getting married, it’s his daughter so that sounds a bit off re change part

[quote Parker231]@MarshaBradyo He was double vaccinated with no underlying health conditions. His daughter is getting married at Christmas, now without her father.[/quote]
God. That's awful. I'm so sorry.

@PrincessNutNuts

And *@BristOliver* showing us the maths of infectious pandemics.

We're here because mitigations were removed.

And how long would you suggest we keep that up? Because guess what.... once we stop them eventually cases would go back up

@PrincessNutNuts you clearly don't have young children then as if you did you would have seen the devastation it caused... my 2 year old struggles with social interaction as she's spent most of her life hidden away from any one new.

he NHS can pull the card every winter.

This is certainly not every winter

@MrsFezziwig I have never voted Conservative. Although my heart sinks at the other parties as well right now.

[quote Tuba437]@PrincessNutNuts you clearly don't have young children then as if you did you would have seen the devastation it caused... my 2 year old struggles with social interaction as she's spent most of her life hidden away from any one new.[/quote]
No I don't, but I'm not ignorant of the harms. We have babies and young children in the wider family and I am in a support bubble with my friend who has a baby and a toddler.

They're probably about to live through another lockdown soon because of the removal of mitigations after Freedom Day".

It's a choice between mitigations now or restrictions later. Same as it's always been during this pandemic.

The chart from @BristOliver shows how much better off we'd be if all of our social interactions had been reduced by just 5%.

I don't think there is any chance of lockdowns coming any time soon, @PrincessNutNuts There simply is no reason for them - it isn't the number of cases that drives lockdowns.

Yes, there should be more measures more in line with EU countries that have lower rates at the moment. But the issue is that even if they are brought in, it will take 2 weeks minimum for them to start to depress rates, I guess (am not an expert in this area, as with most people on mumsnet), and at the same time winter is developing so more flu, more covid anyway, etc.

So my sense is bring on Plan B but it's too little too late. And removing the mask mandate was bonkers. And wfh is a good way to go to mitigate the effects of winter (more people indoors in crowded spaces etc), for those who can of course (not everyone has the luxury of being able to wfh - bus drivers, retail workers, and many others including but not limited to teachers).

I think the government are gambling @NearlyAlwaysInsane that the numbers will go down again like they did in the summer when the increase in indoor social interaction caused by the football ended.

But this time it's not summer and the increase in social interaction is beginning, not ending.

When the government's laissez-faire "Live and Let Die" policies have driven vital infrastructure to the brink of collapse again, there'll be another lockdown. Again.

It's just a case of whether you think their current "vaccine only" policies will be enough to prevent that.

They don't seem to be expecting to need "Plan B" until December.

Happy Christmas to us!

@PrincessNutNuts

I think the government are gambling *@NearlyAlwaysInsane* that the numbers will go down again like they did in the summer when the increase in indoor social interaction caused by the football ended.

But this time it's not summer and the increase in social interaction is beginning, not ending.

When the government's laissez-faire "Live and Let Die" policies have driven vital infrastructure to the brink of collapse again, there'll be another lockdown. Again.

It's just a case of whether you think their current "vaccine only" policies will be enough to prevent that.

They don't seem to be expecting to need "Plan B" until December.

Happy Christmas to us!

What do you say to the fact that the majority of infections are in school aged teenagers, and that they are not an endless supply of uninfected bodies? What do you say to the schools who say that their exit waves are already beginning to burn out, as the kids who were going to get covid, catch covid and recover from covid?

I'm not saying you're wrong, because I can't see into the future. Neither can you.

@PrincessNutNuts

SAGE today -

The NHS is 'highly unlikely' to be overwhelmed by Covid this winter even without restrictions, the Government's scientific advisory panel have insisted in advice that justifies No10's bold decision to reject immediately resorting to 'Plan B'.

Speaking of plan B though, are more wearing masks after the little press conference? I was in the office yesterday morning and was still the only one. Not been anywhere else though. How's it looking in shops etc?

Good mask wearing on the Tube today. We have to wear one in public areas of our office.

Mixed here

Really good on bus, and overground not great on Victoria line (lots of stuff to do last two days)