Increasing number of cases

[AutumnAlmanack]

Could anyone please explain to me why it is that the UK is recording such a high number of daily cases, and rising, whereas the rest of Europe and elsewhere seem to be showing a steady decline in numbers? It really baffles me!

Fair enough. That seems fair, however being vaccinated doesn't seem to stop people getting or spreading Covid, but it does stop most people getting very unwell. So I'm not sure it would really help- but it is certainly doable.

The key metric is hospital admissions for Covid-19, which are now running at nearly 1000 new admissions a day. These are people suffering badly from the disease and are causing hospitals to revert to cancelling other treatments - the reason why the NHS Confederation has, this morning, called for the immediate resumption of masks in crowded places, and other "Plan B" measures.

Once again the government is dithering, so I expect things will only get worse.

@3asAbird

Didn't javid say he be happy with 100k cases and we not reached that yet. We were 60k cases in January .

What does an ex-banker who hasn't stayed in any ministerial post for more than a few months know about Covid infection rates? I'd prefer to trust the NHS Confederation, who say that with nearly 1000 new hospital admissions for covid a day, action must be taken now to re-introduce restrictions such as mask wearing.

@Florianus

Fair enough. That seems fair, however being vaccinated doesn't seem to stop people getting or spreading Covid, but it does stop most people getting very unwell. So I'm not sure it would really help- but it is certainly doable.

The key metric is hospital admissions for Covid-19, which are now running at nearly 1000 new admissions a day. These are people suffering badly from the disease and are causing hospitals to revert to cancelling other treatments - the reason why the NHS Confederation has, this morning, called for the immediate resumption of masks in crowded places, and other "Plan B" measures.

Once again the government is dithering, so I expect things will only get worse.

I agree that if hospital admissions are rising worryingly then additional measures should be implemented. I'm not at all about isolation or school closures though.

10 days ago the report of the parliamentary Heath committee criticised this government's response to Covid-19 as too slow in imposing lockdown, too slow in establishing Track and Trace, and too slow in dealing with the problem of Covid-19 in care settings.

Now we have the NHS Confederation saying that the government needs to introduce "Plan B" immediately, before hospitals are overwhelmed, and today the BMA accusing the government of being 'wilfully negligent' by not implementing the Covid 'Plan B' for winter.

And the government's response? Sajid Javid and Ed Aggar saying we should wait and see - it's too early to worry. You could hardly make it up.

It reminds me of the letters from scientists in summer and WHO statement.

They held then, correctly.

@MarshaBradyo

It reminds me of the letters from scientists in summer and WHO statement.

They held then, correctly.

And that failure to follow scientific advice saw a lockdown from Christmas until July.

Lockdown from Christmas to July

Where?

And the letters were this summer

@Luckytattie

Have you looked at how many are being tested? I think the UK are doing double or more than what other countries are!

This^^

We are testing healthy people with 40% accurate tests.

I couldn't give a fuck about positive cases. Its hospital admissions and deaths we need to worry about.

A positive case does not mean it's a really sick person who needs treatment. A lot of people would put it down to a bad flu if they never heard it in the news everyday and had to test for it!

@MarshaBradyo

Lockdown from Christmas to July

Where?

And the letters were this summer

Tier 4 restrictions imposed on 21st December (London & SE) and 26th December (most other areas). Final restrictions lifted on 19th July.

Morocco has already banned flights to and from the UK this week. Even if this government continues to do nothing, people's overseas holidays are again likely to be wrecked as the UK has a much higher rate than most other countries - and those countries won't want to welcome Brits while infection rates remain so high.

People - especially government ministers - need to learn the lessons of the last two years and not repeat the mistakes they have made previously. Vaccines alone do not provide 100% protection.

Final restrictions lifted on 19th July.

That is not lockdown. No where near.

We have 90% antibodies this year which is vastly different to this time last year.

It will run high then I don’t see why we won’t follow Scotland and decrease

Its hospital admissions and deaths we need to worry about.

Exactly. The NHS and the BMA are warning that hospitals are on a knife edge, with 8000 new cases a week. Routine operations are again being cancelled, cancer patients are again failing to receive treatment, ambulances are queuing for hours to wait for an empty bed - and only this morning, the BBC reports that a number of children's operations have been postponed at the Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children, because bed space has run out. And our Health Secretary wants to wait and see how things pan out. Unbelievable! He needs to listen to the BMA and the NHS Confederation - or else admit that he no longer follows scientific advice.

I don’t see why we won’t follow Scotland

Exactly. Follow Scotland and introduce covid passes and mandate mask wearing in shops, bars, cafés, churches and on public transport.

@Florianus

I don’t see why we won’t follow Scotland

Exactly. Follow Scotland and introduce covid passes and mandate mask wearing in shops, bars, cafés, churches and on public transport.

No fast peak then decrease.

Any mitigations flatten curve - they won’t have stopped rise

See NZ for how much you need to do to decrease with delta - it’s not possible for them in L4

We’re definitely testing more, but not the x more that is reflected in our high numbers.

The mitigation we needed was for the govt to consider schools. They had all summer to prepare. We’re in the thick of it now and masks won’t make enough difference (as Scotland can testify). They chose this route so we’ve got to go down it

@Florianus

Its hospital admissions and deaths we need to worry about.

Exactly. The NHS and the BMA are warning that hospitals are on a knife edge, with 8000 new cases a week. Routine operations are again being cancelled, cancer patients are again failing to receive treatment, ambulances are queuing for hours to wait for an empty bed - and only this morning, the BBC reports that a number of children's operations have been postponed at the Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children, because bed space has run out. And our Health Secretary wants to wait and see how things pan out. Unbelievable! He needs to listen to the BMA and the NHS Confederation - or else admit that he no longer follows scientific advice.

🙄 hospitalisations with a positive Covid test are a fraction of what they were in the winter peak. Furthermore, the health authorities have clarified that substantial proportions of these are people who have been admitted for reasons other than Covid (but happen to have a positive PCR), and that people are spending less time in hospital than in previous waves.

Although case rates in children have spiked, hospitalisations in children have remained pretty stable and are currently less than they were in July.

The only way out of this crisis is for people to stop the scaremongering.

Just wanted to correct that - in Spain anyone can get a LFT at the local doctor (its not like UK doctors - they're like big mini hospitals so you just go and get one at the desk) but the 17 euros is the pharmacy price. Or 35 euros for a travel one (private)!

*🙄 hospitalisations with a positive Covid test are a fraction of what they were in the winter peak"

But now the NHS is (or has been) trying to catch-up with a huge backlog of cases, while at the same time a largely knackered staff are badly depleted in numbers. Just look at the number of hospitals having to turn away cases and the six-hour queues of ambulances waiting to drop-off patients but unable to do so for lack of beds.

I don't think that either the BMA or the NHS Conferation are "scaremongering" when they say that Plan B needs to start now if hospitals are to avoid being overwhelmed.

Half the nhs staff are probably off with this hideous bug going round too.

I don't think that either the BMA or the NHS Conferation are "scaremongering" when they say that Plan B needs to start now if hospitals are to avoid being overwhelmed.

I completely agree. I've already had my supposedly urgent oncology appointment postponed to December, and the way this is going I can just see the hospitals being overwhelmed by then and being postponed yet again. And tens of thousands of people are in a similar position.

I can't argue that the NHS is in a state of collapse.

However, the problems leading to this collapse are vast and systemic, and long precede Covid. Implementing endless Covid restrictions with an aim to fixing the systemic issues in the NHS is flawed, unsustainable and unjust.

Absolutely, @Bizawit .

The NHS is a leaky bucket. The population is increasing, the elderly population is ballooning, and people’s general health (obesity, diabetes etc) especially in some areas is crummy. The NHS salary and pension bill is too eye-watering to think about.

www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

@Bizawit, this explains a lot of the 'systemic' issues faced by the NHS

@Bizawit

I can't argue that the NHS is in a state of collapse. However, the problems leading to this collapse are vast and systemic, and long precede Covid. Implementing endless Covid restrictions with an aim to fixing the systemic issues in the NHS is flawed, unsustainable and unjust.

Totally agree, but correcting the long-term problems, including insufficient doctors and the shortage of 39,000 nurses, will take many years. What do you suggest should be done now? Do nothing and see thousands having to be turned away from hospitals?

Do nothing and see thousands having to be turned away from hospitals

This is what I think is scaremongering. If this is happening, it’s not because of Covid prevalence. The data just doesn’t support such a view- certainly not at the current time. The modellers have consistently exaggerated the capacity threat posed by Covid. See here for the latest discrepancy between predictions and actual, these predictions were used to argue against lifting restrictions over the summer. Hospitalisations were supposed to be somewhere between the green and blue lines.

The biggest problem with SAGE (SPI-M-O Consensus) modelling has always been the underlying assumption that the past can be used to predict the future. In the current situation it simply can’t.

FWIW, the latest numbers no longer show “the rapid increase in cases”. North West (and possibly East Midlands?) almost certainly peaked last week. North East seems to be peaking this week. London is a mixed bag. Covid here is “nearly” endemic but West (e.g. Richmond) needs to “catch up” with East (e.g. Barking and Dagenham). South West and South East will continue to go up before they go down. The estimated historic attack rate for these 2 regions is significantly lower than across the rest of the country (33% - SW, 35% - SE, 58% - London, 52% - NW - according to the latest Covid forecast published by MRC Biostatistics Unit on Oct 20).

Hospitalisations, unfortunately, will continue to rise even in NW. They are a lagging indicator in comparison to cases. However, as of today, England boosted more than 50% of 80+ year olds, 37%+ of 75-79 year olds and almost 20% of 70-74 year olds. This should start reducing pressure on healthcare over coming weeks.