Page 3 | Why are covid cases so low in London?

LastToBePicked · 2021-10-06T06:52:59+00:00

Has anyone heard any decent explanations as to why covid cases in London continue to be lower than pretty much everywhere else in the country? Crowded city, one of lowest vaccination rates in the country…why don’t we have more cases?

lonelyplanet · 08/10/2021 11:38

The data on the daily number of cases doesn't include anyone with a reinfections. Each person is only counted once. Areas with previously high infection rates could be showing lower rates now because of some natural immunity and additionally reinfections not being counted.

BustopherPonsonbyJones · 09/10/2021 11:53

Really? So people won’t be aware of cases rising if their area is in Round 2 or 3 of infections. That’s dreadful as many people would choose to be more careful if cases were high in their area, although I do wonder if some people are even aware you can get Covid over and over again when I read comments about herd immunity.

Geamhradh · 09/10/2021 11:56

@BustopherPonsonbyJones

Really? So people won’t be aware of cases rising if their area is in Round 2 or 3 of infections. That’s dreadful as many people would choose to be more careful if cases were high in their area, although I do wonder if some people are even aware you can get Covid over and over again when I read comments about herd immunity.

You only have to see which posters on here go on about herd immunity and people being immune from Covid to see it's mainly an anti Vax agenda. Lots of interesting scientific debunking articles on why it is unlikely to ever be reached and historically when it's happened it's been for a very brief, localised, short sharp contagious disease with no variants and which was quickly isolated.

Shanghaisprize · 09/10/2021 12:03

Natural immunity and vaccination of a high proportion of the very vulnerable I'd guess - went round most boroughs like wildfire during all previous waves. It's the same where I am in Kent, but rates here were insane during the second wave.

BigWoollyJumpers · 09/10/2021 12:25

@beguilingeyes

I think that we've still got a mask mandate in place is helping. Sadiq has left it in place for London Transport and shops/restaurants. Most people on my commute are still wearing them. Shops also.

Really? I visited DD a couple of weekends ago, and was the only person wearing one. I gave up in the end, because I looked like the prat from the countryside!

Literally one or two on train up from Surrey, a couple on the over-ground, no-one in shops or restaurants that I visited.

All of DD's office had it last year, all her friends too. Flatmate caught it a few weeks ago, but double vaccinated, and previous infection, so no symptoms at all, but because LFT'ing for her job, she had to isolate. DD didn't catch it. All those mentioned double vaxxed as well, so maybe the combination of infection and vaccination is really helping. They are all still LFT'ing for work so not for lack of testing, the low rates.

sashagabadon · 09/10/2021 13:46

To be honest there’s very little to no mask wearing anymore. It was pretty good on my morning commute for a while but that dropped. Journey home was always hit and miss. I get buses a lot too and compliance seems better on the bus (older more vulnerable passengers whereas tube are generally younger)
There’s almost no compliance in shopping centres or areas like Covent Garden etc now either.
I think it’s previous infection that is making the difference at least at the moment. London had 30% antibodies last December without a vaccine.
Vaccination rates are pretty low too. The borough I live in is 60% double jabbed which is poor compare to other parts of U.K. but our cases are below average.

Smallinthesmoke · 09/10/2021 13:55

A lot of the walk-in/ drive through PCR testing centres have shut. So I expect that helps reported infection rates!

Egghead68 · 09/10/2021 14:00

Good point that only first infections count in the statistics. That could certainly account for London’s apparently low rate.

Nomoreusernames1244 · 09/10/2021 14:03

Many people I know in London simply aren’t testing.

They’re going about their lives as normal, only testing when they have to- the few I know that have tested positive have had to do a test either through work or going on holiday.

No one is voluntarily testing.

Loudestcat14 · 09/10/2021 14:04

Londoner here. I think it's natural immunity too – we got clobbered by Covid at the beginning and everyone I know had it last year at some point. I actually can't remember the last time I heard someone I know had it. Cases in my borough are less than 200 per 100k now.

nordica · 09/10/2021 14:30

Not sure about everyone already having had covid, although I appreciate anecdotal evidence is just that... But out of the people I know in London, I would say maybe only 2 out of 10 have had covid before. None of my closest friends or neighbours for example have had it, but then almost all of them have been working from home or are retired, and don't have young children who would bring covid back from school.

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2021 14:40

Not sure about everyone already having had covid, although I appreciate anecdotal evidence is just that...

The estimated attack rate for London (percentage of people who have already had Covid) is 54%. For comparison, North West is at 32% and South West is "only" at 25%.

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-september-2021/

Good point that only first infections count in the statistics. That could certainly account for London’s apparently low rate.

The most reliable way to assess "true" prevalence is through ONS survey (that is not skewed by differences in testing). ONS consistently shows London as one of the regions with the lowest infection rates.

In my personal opinion, of course, the primary reason for that is historic acquired immunity.

Egghead68 · 09/10/2021 14:48

The most reliable way to assess "true" prevalence is through ONS survey (that is not skewed by differences in testing). ONS consistently shows London as one of the regions with the lowest infection rates

Also a good point. I still reckon high rates of WFH in London are a significant factor.

BigWoollyJumpers · 09/10/2021 16:31

@Egghead68

The most reliable way to assess "true" prevalence is through ONS survey (that is not skewed by differences in testing). ONS consistently shows London as one of the regions with the lowest infection rates

Also a good point. I still reckon high rates of WFH in London are a significant factor.

But surely those who are working from home, are generally those that don't necessarily live in London. DD lives and works in London, goes into the office three times a week, out every night, and all weekend, life is normal. DH only going in once a week, works from home, lives in Surrey.

cherin · 09/10/2021 16:48

I suppose it depends on the demographics. DH and myself are both still WFH (me under pressure to go to the office…”gradually”…) but we’re both almost 50 and have no nights out or particularly active social life. Despite living in London. Of my younger colleagues, most are like your DD…

nordica · 09/10/2021 16:55

Isn't the ONS study self-selecting too in the sense that even though the people are chosen randomly, some demographics are likely over-represented as not everyone would take up the offer when they are asked to volunteer? For example those who are more likely to refuse the vaccination are more likely to not want to take part in regular testing for the study.

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2021 19:09

ONS participants get paid (receive vouchers) for participation which should attract less willing representatives.

ONS might not be perfect but it is the most representative sample available (e.g. it is much better than the REACT study that used to be run by Imperial).

TheGrumpyGoat · 09/10/2021 19:21

@wintertravel1980

ONS participants get paid (receive vouchers) for participation which should attract less willing representatives.

ONS might not be perfect but it is the most representative sample available (e.g. it is much better than the REACT study that used to be run by Imperial).

I have had lots of tests sent through the post for the ONS case tracking. I have never been offered vouchers!

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2021 19:36

All participants in the Covid Infection Pilot survey are entitled to receive vouchers for participation:

www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/covid19infectionsurveycis/howtotakepart

As a thank you for taking part, everyone, including children, taking part in the study will receive a voucher.

You will be issued a voucher every time you participate in the study.

The amount received for each completed visit is the same for everyone taking part. The amount does not vary if you are invited to give swab samples only or both swab and blood samples.

Everyone who completes the enrolment visit will be offered one £50 voucher, and one £25 voucher for each further visit.

There may be other surveys without rewards but the main one offers them.

mum2jakie · 10/10/2021 09:27

There are (at least) two different ONS Covid testing surveys running. The one where you are asked to complete a single Covid test as an individual isn't recompensed. Then there is one where the whole household are asked to test (and can carry on with weekly visits) and that one offers £50 per person initially and then £25 per person thereafter.

I've been selected for both and we're doing the household surveys currently.

MarshaBradyo · 10/10/2021 09:34