Why are covid cases so low in London?

[LastToBePicked]

Has anyone heard any decent explanations as to why covid cases in London continue to be lower than pretty much everywhere else in the country?

Crowded city, one of lowest vaccination rates in the country…why don’t we have more cases?

Is it because it had more cases previously? SW has been hit really hard this time round, whereas before has had low case rate

Probably because most people have had it.

People too busy / can’t be bothered with all the constant testing? I know some people in the SW who seem to be testing every 5 seconds. I can imagine a different culture in London, where we used to live.

Lots of childfree homes, where people aren’t that bothered if they have it or not. I’d they’re under the weather, they stay at home. If they’re feeling okay, they get on with their lives?

It is strange isn't it. Not much mask wearing anymore as well.

I can only imagine it's because most people have had it at least once. And aren't testing regularly anymore.

The immunity is probably higher. There were lots of cases at school last ((academic) year, but very few this year.

Some sort of herd immunity in London. We are observing the same in schools - those who had loads of cases earlier this year or last year are doing better this term. Those who kept it out largely last year are more at risk. Vaccination plus natural exposure seems to be a thing.

Higher levels of immunity probably

There are still around 350 cases/100k (fluctuating between 300 and 500) in my borough, which is around 10x higher than countries like Italy that were in the amber list until Monday…and the rate of vaccination is pretty low (can’t understand why, as all the people I know are vaccinated. But it’s a big, diverse borough with lots of young as well, so that might influence)

It’s the same in Birmingham. Our rates are much lower than the likes of Rugby, Statford etc. They’re getting what we had a few weeks/months ago.

Lots of covid in some of the pretty holiday areas. I've heard it about parts of Somerset, Ceredigion and English/Welsh border areas. Driven by schools.

They’ve all already had it?

Many of the people most likely to catch covid because they are exposed to it through their jobs and/or crowded living conditions here are probably the least likely to test now because they can't afford the time off work.

And a general sense that covid is over... Seeing less and less mask wearing now on the tube as well even though it's still meant to be a condition of travel.

Because we've all had it! The schools in London are open with very few cases - normally the ones with more protective parents who didn't get it in earlier waves - and now it's the schools in surrounding counties that seem more affected.

One of my kids' schools has them doing daily LFTs so I don't think it's a lack of testing.

As others have said. Lots of people have already had it.

@NOTANUM

Because we've all had it! The schools in London are open with very few cases - normally the ones with more protective parents who didn't get it in earlier waves - and now it's the schools in surrounding counties that seem more affected.

Weirdly we just got cases in secondary - Ds and friends at same time London zone 2

We’re not protective - normal activity including PT

It has taken so long for it to reach them I had wondered if they had it March 2020 before lockdown

I’m glad isolating is finished though as after this ten day period hopefully that’s it for time off.

I live in London and know very few people who've had it. One friend of dozens. Struggling to think of others. Maybe I'm an anomaly... Everyone I know stuck to the rules.

@AmsterDAMN

I live in London and know very few people who've had it. One friend of dozens. Struggling to think of others. Maybe I'm an anomaly... Everyone I know stuck to the rules.

You don’t have to break the ‘rules’ to catch a virus.

Because Londoners are evil and have been given special extra protection from Covid made from babies blood funded by taxpayers in The North.

Or there could be a logical explanation (like Notanum's post) - London had very high rates earlier on, it has a high vaccine take up, a higher proportion of people in professional employment (and wfh so less likely to be exposed) etc.

The test sites are busy, lots of schools have required mandatory PCR testing etc.

Curiously, the boroughs which are doing best are the ones which have the lowest vaccination rates. Many have been hit badly before though, so perhaps it is natural immunity. Or as a PP has said, to do with a demographic of residents who don't tend to engage with health care, be it vaccinations or testing.

It’s really weird how the cases go, I also notice that Scotlands cases are now really low now, suggesting that now their schools have been back 2 months, cases are dropping. I think in London it was the 18-29 year olds who were probably working and socialising more, where the most cases were and now they are double jabbed, it seems to be making a difference in that age group. I do also wonder if they are not testing as much. My adult DS has had to do 5 PCR tests since October, all negative, now he’s had both vaccines, he says he will only do one if he has symptoms. He got a PCR test delivered with his LFT tests that he takes for work, he was really annoyed that they sent him one as part of a study, he didn’t do it.

@Treblebass

It’s the same in Birmingham. Our rates are much lower than the likes of Rugby, Statford etc. They’re getting what we had a few weeks/months ago.

Yes this looks to be true in other areas that were hit harder earlier too. London stands out on the national map, but when you zoom in on places like Manchester, Leicester, Bradford…they’re all surrounded by a sea of high cases numbers but are relatively low.

If you look at testing rates, there’s no obvious evidence people aren’t getting tested.

So it does look like just maybe…something getting close to herd immunity because everyone’s had it?

It does make me think that it could be a sign we are on the way out of the pandemic, but I don’t want to get my hopes up!

I've been wondering the same thing. I'm in West Kent and our areas are rising rapidly. I assumed it was because of schools going back but then realised it's just our area.

I used the BBCs cases in your area lookup and a couple of weeks ago cases were dropping in all SE London and the whole of Kent apart from my three closest council areas. We've got a really high vaccination rate here too so it's not because of that.

I think that we've still got a mask mandate in place is helping.
Sadiq has left it in place for London Transport and shops/restaurants.
Most people on my commute are still wearing them. Shops also.

East Lancashire here, one of the areas hit badly last summer and were back in local lockdown before the schools even went back but now we are one of the lowest areas with higher areas surrounding us. It looks like natural immunity has kicked in from all the previous waves. It's odd seeing Lancashire and Manchester on the map in blue surrounded by purple, even Lancashire itself the more rural areas that did better last time are doing worse now.