Why are covid cases so low in London?

[LastToBePicked]

Has anyone heard any decent explanations as to why covid cases in London continue to be lower than pretty much everywhere else in the country?

Crowded city, one of lowest vaccination rates in the country…why don’t we have more cases?

One thing I had heard was that so many people might have left London (due to pandemic, Brexit etc) that the denominator is wrong for all the calculations of covid rates. In other words we are assuming there are X number of cases across 7 million people but maybe there aren’t 7 million people, so the case rate is actually higher.

But it seems implausible that this is a big enough issue for it to account for the difference.

Its a virus, rates go up and down, i live in Bolton twice we have had the highest rates in the UK, but i think we are fairly stable at the moment,, Much like the rest if the UK, there will be times when London have high rates of the virus and times when they dont

My borough is pretty low 150/100k but vaccination is also quite low. 65% have had their first and 55% have had their second.

The majority of people I know (close friends, school friends of kids and a sizeable family) have not had Covid.

Just to clarify on an earlier comment - there is no London "mask mandate. Masks are an unenforceable condition of carriage on TFL and optional in shops /hospitality same as every where else

Imagine the majority of the population has had it already.

@x2boys

Its a virus, rates go up and down, i live in Bolton twice we have had the highest rates in the UK, but i think we are fairly stable at the moment,, Much like the rest if the UK, there will be times when London have high rates of the virus and times when they dont

Apparently a 2 month cycle has been noted, not just in the UK but all around the world.

@beguilingeyes

I think that we've still got a mask mandate in place is helping. Sadiq has left it in place for London Transport and shops/restaurants. Most people on my commute are still wearing them. Shops also.

Sadiq Khan's writ doesn't run to requiring masks in shops...

The reason seems to be that London has had higher cases over the past 20 months so immunity is higher even if vaccine take up is lower. If you haven't been hiding yourself away in London, and mixing pretty normally in periods outside of lockdown, you're unlikely not to have had Covid in London.

well my DH is travelling via tube to work everyday but he hasn't gotten covid yet (fully vaccinated) and i think part of the reason is that there is still relatively few people in his office despite it being a really large bank. A lot of people who work in London live outside London and have to pay thousands of pounds to commute in daily and as there isn't really adequate parking in central london and also congestion charge, you have to use rail which costs a fortune. Of course managers have been pushing employees to come in (like with DH) regardless of cost and commute, but my impression is that return to work is slower in London due to the large percentage of employees using public transport. Also some people have moved further out and are reluctant to come back in; one of my colleagues that I work closely with moved to the midlands over the pandemic to be with family and basically is unwilling to pay the £90 to come down to the office even once (we checked the prices together). So there is little point of me going in if he is not there even though I live in London. It would take time for him to rearrange his accommodation and I don't blame him for adopting a wait and see approach so definitely even though the restaurants and bars and shops are back to normal, the fewer people in the office means less chance of infection.

@Warhertisuff I live in london and mixed pretty normally outside lockdown. No car so used public transport even during lockdown to get the groceries home. I never got covid and neither did my husband. But we did wfh during lockdown (DH has now returned to office) so even if we mixed normally, we didn't have as many interactions as those who worked outside the home.

Cases are rising again in my area of London from schools going back.

I imagine the lower rates are primarily as London has a much higher proportion of people home working than elsewhere.

@LastToBePicked

I think it’s a positive sign. There’s absolutely not a lack of testing from my neck of the woods (Disadvantaged area of the midlands/Bham) people are still testing frequently but like I said our rates are a lot lower than the likes of Rugby, Stratford where they have had to reintroduce mask wearing in their secondary schools etc.

The guy on the news last night explained it better but I do think there’s high levels of immunity in certain populated areas now.

I don't get why our area (north west) which was consistently high at the start of the pandemic and well one of the highest rates throughout and now again has the highest rates. If London has some immunity if everyone has had it then why hasn't our area got some immunity?
It doesn't make senses

Vaccine rates?

I think we must have all had it. None of my family have to our knowledge and only a couple of friends. We live in London.

It's weird because things have been crowded here all along, bar total lockdowns. You can't avoid crowds and people in London, obviously.

My theory is that I"m surrounded by Covid carriers every day and am constantly having my immunity challenged and topped up.

it has a high vaccine take up

In the contrary, London's uptake level is comparatively low - many initiatives have been rolled out to encourage people to get it. I think it's improved a bit since summer, though, when it was a big cause for concern

metro.co.uk/2021/09/09/london-englands-11-least-vaccinated-areas-are-all-in-the-capital-15234057/

This is today’s prevalence map from the Zoe symptom study. London’s not that low any more. Cases have increased a lot in the last two weeks according to their data.

Because everyone in London uses LFT’s to test even when they have symptoms. So nothing gets picked up. And I would make a rough guess that people who don’t vaccinate are also less likely to get a PCR so it’s just that the cases are not being reported, not that nobody is sick.

Also possible that everyone in London has this bloody cold and that stops you getting covid??? There is a succession of winter illnesses, normally cold-RSV-flu so maybe covid just can’t get a place?!

@Sandyjag

Because everyone in London uses LFT’s to test even when they have symptoms. So nothing gets picked up. And I would make a rough guess that people who don’t vaccinate are also less likely to get a PCR so it’s just that the cases are not being reported, not that nobody is sick.

Also possible that everyone in London has this bloody cold and that stops you getting covid??? There is a succession of winter illnesses, normally cold-RSV-flu so maybe covid just can’t get a place?!

I have e the Bloody cold too im in Bolton, i haven't heard it stops you from getting Covid though?

It must be because a lot of Londoners have already had it. My area (just outside London), is rife with it at the moment. I know more people who have or have had Covid since July than since the start of the pandemic. I personally know six people who have it right now - all teenagers apart from one mum.

@AmsterDAMN

I live in London and know very few people who've had it. One friend of dozens. Struggling to think of others. Maybe I'm an anomaly... Everyone I know stuck to the rules.

Do people seriously still think like this?

It isn’t just a ‘for one time only’ disease. We are seeing lots of people on their second and third infection. It isn’t always milder either. In fact, it’s scared some younger people into having the vaccine.

@LastToBePicked

Has anyone heard any decent explanations as to why covid cases in London continue to be lower than pretty much everywhere else in the country?

Crowded city, one of lowest vaccination rates in the country…why don’t we have more cases?

We all had it in the first or second wave. Shed loads of natural immunity.

It must be increased levels of herd immunity due to previously high infection rates. Official stats show about 1m cases in London, in a population of about 8m. But London had it bad early in in the pandemic when testing was almost non existent apart from hospitalised cases.

You can see the same low prevalence in other places that have already had it bad - Bolton, Birmingham etc. Now it's currently worse in areas that didn't have it so bad previously. Vaccination rates are broadly similar in most parts of the country, so it can only be down to naturally developed herd immunity.

@Treblebass

It’s the same in Birmingham. Our rates are much lower than the likes of Rugby, Statford etc. They’re getting what we had a few weeks/months ago.

Please tell my children's inner city secondary school this. It ripped through last year and continues to rip through this year!

I also work with 20 schools in the city and it's carnage still...

@middleager
I also work in a school so I can see the same as you. I think we are more aware of what is happening than other workers due to the. Number of cases. ‘Natural immunity’ isn’t happening. Some of children (and staff) were confirmed positive in June (probably still Delta) and have been confirmed positive again (October). A couple of unfortunates have now had Covid three times. So I’m guessing after six months it can all kick off again, even in areas which have ‘had it’. I’m hoping to get a booster as soon as possible.