Infections among fully vaccinated

[BoofTheFloof]

In the last 4 weeks I know of eleven fully vaccinated adults in my wider social circle who have caught covid. Transmission has been either via returning to work or catching it from school aged children (the case rate in our local schools is very high but no one is talking about it. 4 cases in my daughters class of 16)
None of the adults have needed hospital but a couple have been extremely sick for 2-3 weeks and one was triaged in an ambulance.
I know that the vaccine doesn't prevent all cases but is it preventing any? All of the adults infected have it to their whole family. Or is it just making the subsequent covid infection less virulent?

Have I just been unlucky with the people I know or is this about to be a thing? I'm resigned now to probably catching it which is really concerning as I was classified as CEV.

@BoofTheFloof

In the last 4 weeks I know of eleven fully vaccinated adults in my wider social circle who have caught covid. Transmission has been either via returning to work or catching it from school aged children (the case rate in our local schools is very high but no one is talking about it. 4 cases in my daughters class of 16) None of the adults have needed hospital but a couple have been extremely sick for 2-3 weeks and one was triaged in an ambulance. I know that the vaccine doesn't prevent all cases but is it preventing any? All of the adults infected have it to their whole family. Or is it just making the subsequent covid infection less virulent? Have I just been unlucky with the people I know or is this about to be a thing? I'm resigned now to probably catching it which is really concerning as I was classified as CEV.

If you look at the latest vaccine surveillance reports from PHE, for over 40's the case rates (per 100,000) are higher amongst the vaccinated than amongst the unvaccinated...

I’ve just had COVID. Mild fever and sore throat. Loss of smell already returning. The worst thing was fatigue and brain fog. DH didn’t get it at all. Fully vaccinated in February so maybe immunity had waned. It didn’t feel any worse than a cold for me. The numbed of cases are huge but deaths have dropped so the vaccine does seem to be working on a population level.

I received my second vaccine in May. I got my positive PCR result this weekend- after a week when many, many children my class have been unwell.

They aren't classic covid symptoms so parents are refusing to test them and they return to school after a couple of days. I don't have any of the classic symptoms but tested as I felt unwell and didn't want to risk walking around a supermarket if I had covid. I'm glad (for other people) that I made that choice.

I really wish that there was less emphasis on fever, cough and loss of taste. None of the cases in our school (I believe I am case number 6 in the last week, small rural primary) have had those symptoms.

@Wellbythebloodyhell

The vaccine was for the most part meant to reduce hospitalisation or Death not to prevent the virus altogether so in your friends circumstances on the whole it's done the job

Afraid that's historical revisionism...

Originally the message was that the vaccines were 95% effective in preventing you from catching Covid. This was based on the Pfizer trial data... Except this efficiacy was never seen in the real world, and recent data from the PHE vaccine surveillance report shows that for over 40's there are higher rates of Covid (per 100,000 population) amongst the vaccinated than amongst the unvaccinated.

So the message switched to it being about preventing transmission... Except that there were then papers published which showed that vaccinated people who caught Covid still had high viral loads (possibly higher than unvaccinated).

So the message has now switched to it being about preventing hospitalisation and death. So far, that still seems to be true. Let's hope that it stays that way.

We also have to remember, that if, indeed 1/3 in hospital are vaccinated - that is a much, much lower rate per population as the vast majority are vaccinated.

So vaccinated say are 30 million (made up figures)
Unvaccinated are 3 million (again made up)
Hospitalised - we’d expect 1 in 10 to be unvaccinated. The fact that there are 7 in 10 shows a much bigger effect.

So that chances of being hospitalised with covid if you are fully vaccinated are a lot, lot less than ‘a third’ of the chance of unvaccinated.

If you get my meaning?

If there was no difference in the vaccines, we would expect almost all people in hospital with covid to be vaccinated.

But yes I also hoped and expected vaccines to prevent more transmission. I am in the science community and I think because vaccines were a LOT more effective at preventing severe cases and deaths than initially thought possible, transmission also seemed very optimistic.

However part of this is because Delta is so much more transmissible. Which appeared after clinical trials. And also real world always has to be tested before conclusions can be made.

Anecdotally though, I’ve known several cases recently and all those vaccinated have had it mildly, and not transmitted that much, and all those unvaccinated have had it more severely, with one person I know in ICU.

@cttontail

UCL dynamic causal modelling data from 13th September: Current estimates of the vaccination efficacy are: preventing infection: 10.2% (CI 6.2 to 14.1) preventing transmission following infection 89.7% (CI 88.9 to 90.4) preventing serious illness when symptomatic (age 15-34) 78.5% (CI 77.9 to 79.1) preventing serious illness when symptomatic (age 35-70) 52.7% (CI 51.5 to 54.0) preventing fatality when seriously ill 56.2% (CI 55.3 to 57.2) The corresponding cumulative (vaccinated vs. unvaccinated) risks are: relative risk of infection 89.8% relative risk of mild illness 38.5% relative risk of severe illness 13.0% relative risk of fatality 5.7% For example, vaccination reduces the risk of being infected and developing a severe illness to 13.0% of the risk prior to vaccination.

The vaccines are really not preventing infection in the vast majority of cases (89%) and we should not be expecting them to do that. The majority of people hospitalised in the UK are double vaccinated. This is because the majority of these hospitalisations are of the more vulnerable (elderly) and although the vaccine is reducing the likelihood of hospitalisation significantly, if you were in a group where 20% of unvaccinated people were going to end up in hospital that still means 0.20.13100=2.6% of vaccinated people are going to be hospitalised in your age category. The majority of people in the country, particularly the vulnerable, are double vaccinated now. This means more vaccinated people are in hospital by overall numbers, but if you look as a proportion of the total population of vaccinated/unvaccinated then of course you see a much higher proportion of the unvaccinated end up in hospital (because they still have the 20% risk (although this is likely higher with delta than the data published for alpha/WT)).

That's a very useful set of numbers - thank for posting.

I'm assuming the UCL modelling is more accurate than the Imperial modelling!

It is probably also worth noting that your percentages are relative risk ratios. i.e. if you are vaccinated you have only 5.7% of the risk of dying that an unvaccinated person has. But since the unvaccinated person only has (on average) a 0.3% chance of dying if they catch Covid (i.e. a small risk), the risk of a vaccinated person dying is only about 0.017% (tiny).

Note: That's not disagreeing with what you're saying, just providing statistical context.

I think the above could do with a bit of plain English explaining! Very useful but not everyone is familiar with relative risk ratios.

The majority of people hospitalised in the UK are double vaccinated. do we have real figures for this?

Take care with claims about unvaccinated case rates

The Guardian

Re "it would stop transmission" claims. I recall JVT at the daily pressers being very cautious saying no vaccine was 100% but they would expect/hope to see reduction in transmissions (don't recall him saying a hard stop in transmissions). Of course that was with regard to Alpha but now (thanks to BJ's non-plans) delta swept through the UK and the rest of the world which is inherently more transmissible so our starting point has to be reduced - cheers Boris

Sorry to hear that @HesterShaw1 Ive agreed with a lot of your posts on here and have always found them quite measured Get well soon

The majority of people in critical care beds have a BMI over 25 meaning they’re overweight/obese. No one really seems to be talking about that. We’ve known that being overweight is a risk factor for a while. Obesity related illness puts a massive strain on the NHS beyond covid. Where’s the campaign to highlight this? Nope, let’s just focus on the need to vaccinate healthy children for ‘the greater good’

Both myself and dh are fully vaccinated, Dh is classed as CEV, our son tested positive for covid at the start of the school holidays, we live in a small two bedroom house, with one bathroom, neither of us caught it 🤷‍♀️

@bumbleymummy

The majority of people in critical care beds have a BMI over 25 meaning they’re overweight/obese. No one really seems to be talking about that. We’ve known that being overweight is a risk factor for a while. Obesity related illness puts a massive strain on the NHS beyond covid. Where’s the campaign to highlight this? Nope, let’s just focus on the need to vaccinate healthy children for ‘the greater good’

Couldn't agree more!! A prime opportunity to engage more people in adopting a healthy lifestyle has been missed.

@YukoandHiro

Only the over 50s are getting a booster.::

And other vulnerable groups as well.

@bumbleymummy

The majority of people in critical care beds have a BMI over 25 meaning they’re overweight/obese. No one really seems to be talking about that. We’ve known that being overweight is a risk factor for a while. Obesity related illness puts a massive strain on the NHS beyond covid. Where’s the campaign to highlight this? Nope, let’s just focus on the need to vaccinate healthy children for ‘the greater good’

It was highlighted last summer, by the PM no less. Everyone knows by now that obesity is a massive risk factor for many conditions. Some people don't want to face up to that fact.

Mentioned perhaps but not exactly highlighted. Yes, lots of denial. Easier to push the vaccine rather encourage a healthier lifestyle.

@bumbleymummy

The majority of people in critical care beds have a BMI over 25 meaning they’re overweight/obese. No one really seems to be talking about that. We’ve known that being overweight is a risk factor for a while. Obesity related illness puts a massive strain on the NHS beyond covid. Where’s the campaign to highlight this? Nope, let’s just focus on the need to vaccinate healthy children for ‘the greater good’

Agree 100%

The majority of people in critical care beds have a BMI over 25

That statement doesn't prove anything about link between BMI & covid outcomes.

The majority of ppl in critical care are age 50+
The majority of adults in UK age 50+ have BMI > 25

I just put my numbers into the calculator (early-mid 50s) to come up with estimate that 64% of women in my age bracket, in England, are overweight or larger.

It’s not true that most people in hospital are vaccinated

www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/60-people-being-admitted-uk-hospitals-had-two-covid-jabs-adviser-2021-07-19/

It was highlighted last summer, by the PM no less.
Everyone knows by now that obesity is a massive risk factor for many conditions. Some people don't want to face up to that fact.

Whilst this may be true, it’s really difficult to just fix obesity. The government has taken measures like sugar taxes and schools encouraging healthy eating but it’s really quite a complex issue.

@lljkk

The majority of people in critical care beds have a BMI over 25

That statement doesn't prove anything about link between BMI & covid outcomes.

The majority of ppl in critical care are age 50+
The majority of adults in UK age 50+ have BMI > 25

I just put my numbers into the calculator (early-mid 50s) to come up with estimate that 64% of women in my age bracket, in England, are overweight or larger.

80% of those in critical care beds from May-sept had a BMI over 25. The highest percentage was those with a BMI between 30 and 40 (36.8%).

We know age is a big risk factor and it is often talked about. Obesity, not so much.

@NCBlossom
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/25/significant-proportions-of-people-admitted-to-hospital-or-dying-from-covid-19-in-england-are-vaccinated-this-doesnt-mean-the-vaccines-dont-work/?fbclid=IwAR33C-2jEV17_ZjDHKDl3kBCl-dPheDg-JOA88M9TM17KCB-8I6LpUN5XQg

The data from public health England is also published, which was showing this, but I can't find the exact file online now.

OK, I found the data - it's English data, not UK, from PHE for 2021 weeks 32-35. It refers to admission to hospital from emergency department due to Covid-19 (not total hospitalisation figures). 43.8% of admissions from the emergency department due to Covid-19 were unvaccinated. Leaving 56.2% that were vaccinated. This is almost entirely due to the 70+ age groups, where the 80-90% of admissions were in the vaccinated. This is simply due to the reduction in risk the vaccine provides (to 13% of previous risk) in this age group not reducing to lower levels than younger age groups had before vaccination because the older age group were at such high risk anyway. In the 18-39 age group 69% of admissions were unvaccinated.