1000+ in ventilator beds already & school return with no household isolation

[RumblyMumbly]

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

It has been a steady / manageable rise since restrictions lifted in mid May when there were 125 patients in ventilator beds & while obviously awful for the people affected and their families this means the NHS has coped while there has been a lot of Covid cases

Does anyone else feel we may be at the tipping point? Schools in England mostly return this week for Autumn term.

If we compare with last years school return there were only 71 ventilator beds occupied on 31/08/20. Yes, we now have 64% of the total population double vaccinated which puts us in a far better situation than last year when the population had no protection. However, we had household isolations this time last year for positive cases, this year other household members of a positive case will be attending school and workplaces alongside everyone else and generally people will begin meeting indoors much more over the next few months.

Purpose of my post - nervousness about what will happen next...I don't want schools to close at all, children have already had 2 years of disrupted education. But to give my own personal experience - obviously other peoples differ - secondary remote learning can work if absolutely necessary (full schedule of lessons / homework) but primary remote learning (1hr lesson per day) did not work AT ALL & the vast majority of primary aged children are not ready to become independent learners while parents are in an impossible situation as they can't work and moonlight as a teacher.

I hope SAGE / the Government are watching the figures very closely and if we need a circuit breaker in October to keep the NHS manageable they act fast.

Don't worry. Gavin has everything sorted...

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/sep/04/dear-gavin-williamson-now-we-know-what-your-plans-are-for-covid-safe-classrooms-er-um?CMP=ShareAndroidAppOther

@lannistunut but what do you mean for adjusting lockdown easing plans? What do you want them to mandate which would have a meaningful impact on numbers whilst not having a disproportionally detrimental effect on people’s lives and the economy. The delta variant seems unstoppable unless draconian measures are introduced so what do you suggest they do?

My guess is the unlocking plans were made pre-Delta and Johnson is incapable of adjusting to the increased transmission and decreased vaccine efficacy Delta has brought

I agree but I don’t think it’s a guess, unless I’ve missed it there have been no changes to policy to take into account delta.

The delta variant seems unstoppable unless draconian measures are introduced so what do you suggest they do?

Why is at a choice between nothing or everything? Imho we don’t need infections to be brought to a screeching halt just slowed and minimised. Household isolations, limiting large venue numbers and social distancing, encouraging WFH and regular testing alongside masks/ventilation would be the logical low level (compared to lockdowns) steps to take. The higher all the numbers that matter climb (hospital admittance, ICU availability and the preceding case numbers) the harder and slower it is to turn around.

It could all be fine of course, and the best case predictions could come to pass, but heading into winter not knowing with any degree of certainty where things will level off without any mitigations is foolhardy and reckless. I’d like to think the government do have a plan b should their modelling prove incorrect but I suspect they don’t or if they do it’ll be wildly unpopular because it will mean they’ve been backed into a corner. Again.

[quote Snookie00]@lannistunut but what do you mean for adjusting lockdown easing plans? What do you want them to mandate which would have a meaningful impact on numbers whilst not having a disproportionally detrimental effect on people’s lives and the economy. The delta variant seems unstoppable unless draconian measures are introduced so what do you suggest they do?[/quote]
I guess the answer to this question depends on how much you are concerned by a health service crisis, long term high deaths and high levels of disability and chronic illness in the working age population.

The UK has completely fucked up, unfortunately. We have no low-cost way out.

The UK has completely fucked up, unfortunately. We have no low-cost way out.

Do you mean you want elimination from now on

Each country will open up at around same vaccination rate as we have - so do you mean to go in other direction?

@Cornettoninja

My guess is the unlocking plans were made pre-Delta and Johnson is incapable of adjusting to the increased transmission and decreased vaccine efficacy Delta has brought

I agree but I don’t think it’s a guess, unless I’ve missed it there have been no changes to policy to take into account delta.

The delta variant seems unstoppable unless draconian measures are introduced so what do you suggest they do?

Why is at a choice between nothing or everything? Imho we don’t need infections to be brought to a screeching halt just slowed and minimised. Household isolations, limiting large venue numbers and social distancing, encouraging WFH and regular testing alongside masks/ventilation would be the logical low level (compared to lockdowns) steps to take. The higher all the numbers that matter climb (hospital admittance, ICU availability and the preceding case numbers) the harder and slower it is to turn around.

It could all be fine of course, and the best case predictions could come to pass, but heading into winter not knowing with any degree of certainty where things will level off without any mitigations is foolhardy and reckless. I’d like to think the government do have a plan b should their modelling prove incorrect but I suspect they don’t or if they do it’ll be wildly unpopular because it will mean they’ve been backed into a corner. Again.

This. It's going to be too little too late again isn't it?

I’d like to think the government do have a plan b should their modelling prove incorrect
TBF, the modelling has proven incorrect.

Modelling predicted approx:
250k cases
20k people in hospital, and
300 deaths

A day over the summer and we came nowhere near.

@Cornettoninja

The issue with ‘social distancing’ is that it means whole sectors of the economy cannot operate, people cannot hug relatives and young people cannot meet partners.

That is not a sustainable situation. Particularly not when the vast majority of adults are double vaccinated.

The Spanish flu lasted four year's. I'm resigned to covid lasting this long. Maybe longer with international travel and variants

Spanish flu is still going...

@beentoldcomputersaysno hopefully not, but I think it will be hard to claim surprise if it does end up that way.

@Bordois true, and thats a really good outcome but shows just how wide these estimates can be in reality. However, we’re now moving into winter and with more variables to consider and the ever-present unknown variables that may emerge. It’s not a time for complete panic but I don’t think it’s quite time for abandonment of all attempts to minimise the impact if possible.

If the plan was to get a large wave out of the way over the summer I don’t think that’s come to fruition. We certainly haven’t stabilised or felt the full impact of removing contact isolations with schools open. If we’re pushing it to the limit of what we can cope with (which is also debatable considering the current waiting lists and disrupted services) that’s a risky move if it all goes wrong.

Not necessarily @GreenLakes, there are degrees of distancing, limiting numbers venues and passengers on public transport to reduce the numbers of people potentially exposed at any one time whilst private social contacts are left to people’s own discretion is one option.

I get what you’re saying about sustainability but truth is there isn’t really an option that is sustainable or particularly palatable. If the pressure on health systems remains high then the long term reality of that isn’t particularly great either.

However, we’re now moving into winter and with more variables to consider and the ever-present unknown variables that may emerge. It’s not a time for complete panic but I don’t think it’s quite time for abandonment of all attempts to minimise the impact if possible.

I dont disagree- we simply don't know what the autumn/ winter will bring and so much has changed between the last 2 times schools went back that any predictions based on what happened then are meaningless.

I'm not against caution, im not saying cases won't rise and more people may end up in hospital. I'm just tired of the same few people telling us how fucked we are going to be and not actually entering into a rational debate about the hows and whys (not including you in that, although we have differing views you are at least willing to enter into honest debate).

Welsh government public health Walesrned yesterday norovirus is back that means more cancellation of operations as it hits hospital s sigh

Really tell us more fascinating

@Bordois

Spanish flu is still going...

Tell us more fascinating

You said Spanish flu lasted 4 years and I said its still going, what else wwre you wanting?

I'm just tired of the same few people telling us how fucked we are going to be and not actually entering into a rational debate about the hows and whys (not including you in that, although we have differing views you are at least willing to enter into honest debate)

Thanks

I understand people like that though. As much as a wide scale global disaster is absolutely hard to navigate for any government I think ours has shown a particular ineptitude in their ability to make decisive decisions in time sensitive situations. I’m not surprised that has lead to people blowing things out of proportion when there’s no confidence in who’s at the wheel.

I’m off on a tangent so feel free to ignore!… Things like the whole debacle with Boris’s isolation/not isolating, it was pathetic from a political point of view. The fact he and his advisors didn’t have the conviction to stand up and say “look, being PM is actually a really important job, I’m vaccinated and have had covid therefore I will continue to work at this time of a global emergency and take x and y precautions under a pilot scheme we hope to roll out later in the year”. It is scary feeling like the tail is wagging the dog… not that I’m sure whose available and would do a better job right now. We’ve really cocked up encouraging personality politics.

I think the problem with where we are now is that there are no low cost alternatives to what we are doing. It’s easy to throw phrases like social distancing and self-isolating round but the societal and economic cost and implications of putting these into practice is huge at a population level.

This is not a U.K. specific problem and many other countries in Europe and worldwide are grappling with it- there is no obvious answer. I know many posters have bought into the myth that the U.K. has handled things soooo much worse than any other developed nation. I’m no Boris fan and there are certainly things they could have done better/ differently but making out that there is a simple and easily implementable solution which doesn’t involve a huge amount of pain is simply untrue.

@Cornettoninja I'm one of the people who say we're fucked and don't bother getting into the detail.

If I posted all the reasons I think we're fucked, I'd be here all day.

There are so many mitigations in e.g. Germany/Spain/Denmark that we will not get here for structural, cultural and political reasons.

I'm so so so tired of the false dichotomy that it is lockdown vs. nothing. There's so much we could be doing to hold back the scale of this winter's cases, hospitalisations and deaths. UK children in particular are being left very exposed in comparison to all other high income countries.

@TheWoleb

This is life now. Covid isnt going away. This is now life.

It means that every year until we establish immunity to it (if we even ever do) there will be a few thousand sick people on ventilators. We need to put money into new hospitals wards to handle it. That's really all that can be done now.

Zero covid is a myth. There wont be zero covid anywhere. This is it now.

We can hope with an extensive, world wide vaccination programme every year before winter, that we can keep serious illness to a minimum.

Well said. I've said this for ages, it is the only way, we've needed new hospitals anyway before covid, every winter nhs trusts have a winter crisis.

Why is at a choice between nothing or everything? Imho we don’t need infections to be brought to a screeching halt just slowed and minimised. Household isolations, limiting large venue numbers and social distancing, encouraging WFH and regular testing alongside masks/ventilation would be the logical low level (compared to lockdowns) steps to take.

Many people are prepared to accept restrictions if they believe it's worthwhile...

However, after 18 months or it, most people aren't prepared to accept yet more restrictions that are simply slowing, not stopping, the spread... and flattening a curve further that people see as flat enough now given we remain well below the 1st and 2nd wave hospitalisation and death peaks, with something approaching a typical flu season.

To follow on from my last post... You're right; it doesn't have to be all or nothing, it's just that the "something" you're proposing (continued bans on large gatherings etc) is still unacceptable.

There are so many mitigations in e.g. Germany/Spain/Denmark that we will not get here for structural, cultural and political reasons.

Denmark is dropping all of the few remaining 'mitigations' on September 10th.

@IcedPurple

There are so many mitigations in e.g. Germany/Spain/Denmark that we will not get here for structural, cultural and political reasons.

Denmark is dropping all of the few remaining 'mitigations' on September 10th.

I meant mitigations e.g. better sick pay, measures to increase ventilation, rather than covid restrictions.

The UK is extremely weak on mitigations.